Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI
Lex Fridman Podcast11 Joulu 2019

Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, Bayesian Networks, and the Path to AGI

Judea Pearl is a professor at UCLA and a winner of the Turing Award, that's generally recognized as the Nobel Prize of computing. He is one of the seminal figures in the field of artificial intelligence, computer science, and statistics. He has developed and championed probabilistic approaches to AI, including Bayesian Networks and profound ideas in causality in general. These ideas are important not just for AI, but to our understanding and practice of science. But in the field of AI, the idea of causality, cause and effect, to many, lies at the core of what is currently missing and what must be developed in order to build truly intelligent systems. For this reason, and many others, his work is worth returning to often. This conversation is part of the Artificial Intelligence podcast. If you would like to get more information about this podcast go to https://lexfridman.com/ai or connect with @lexfridman on Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, Medium, or YouTube where you can watch the video versions of these conversations. If you enjoy the podcast, please rate it 5 stars on Apple Podcasts or support it on Patreon. This episode is presented by Cash App. Download it (App Store, Google Play), use code "LexPodcast". Here's the outline of the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time. 00:00 - Introduction 03:18 - Descartes and analytic geometry 06:25 - Good way to teach math 07:10 - From math to engineering 09:14 - Does God play dice? 10:47 - Free will 11:59 - Probability 22:21 - Machine learning 23:13 - Causal Networks 27:48 - Intelligent systems that reason with causation 29:29 - Do(x) operator 36:57 - Counterfactuals 44:12 - Reasoning by Metaphor 51:15 - Machine learning and causal reasoning 53:28 - Temporal aspect of causation 56:21 - Machine learning (continued) 59:15 - Human-level artificial intelligence 1:04:08 - Consciousness 1:04:31 - Concerns about AGI 1:09:53 - Religion and robotics 1:12:07 - Daniel Pearl 1:19:09 - Advice for students 1:21:00 - Legacy

Jaksot(481)

#392 – Joscha Bach: Life, Intelligence, Consciousness, AI & the Future of Humans

#392 – Joscha Bach: Life, Intelligence, Consciousness, AI & the Future of Humans

Joscha Bach is a cognitive scientist, AI researcher, and philosopher. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: - Numerai: https://numer.ai/lex - Eight Sleep: https://www.eightsleep.com/lex to get special savings - MasterClass: https://masterclass.com/lex to get 15% off - AG1: https://drinkag1.com/lex to get 1 month supply of fish oil Transcript: https://lexfridman.com/joscha-bach-3-transcript EPISODE LINKS: Joscha's Twitter: https://twitter.com/Plinz Joscha's Website: http://bach.ai Joscha's Substack: https://substack.com/@joscha PODCAST INFO: Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ YouTube Full Episodes: https://youtube.com/lexfridman YouTube Clips: https://youtube.com/lexclips SUPPORT & CONNECT: - Check out the sponsors above, it's the best way to support this podcast - Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman - Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman - Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time. (00:00) - Introduction (06:26) - Stages of life (18:48) - Identity (25:24) - Enlightenment (31:55) - Adaptive Resonance Theory (38:42) - Panpsychism (48:42) - How to think (56:36) - Plants communication (1:14:31) - Fame (1:40:09) - Happiness (1:47:26) - Artificial consciousness (1:59:35) - Suffering (2:04:19) - Eliezer Yudkowsky (2:11:55) - e/acc (Effective Accelerationism) (2:17:33) - Mind uploading (2:28:22) - Vision Pro (2:32:36) - Open source AI (2:45:29) - Twitter (2:52:44) - Advice for young people (2:55:40) - Meaning of life

1 Elo 20232h 59min

#391 – Mohammed El-Kurd: Palestine

#391 – Mohammed El-Kurd: Palestine

Mohammed El-Kurd is a Palestinian writer and poet. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: - Factor: https://factormeals.com/lex50 and use code lex50 to get 50% off first box - SimpliSafe: https://simplisafe.com/lex to get free security camera plus 20% off - BetterHelp: https://betterhelp.com/lex to get 10% off - Babbel: https://babbel.com/lexpod and use code Lexpod to get 55% off - House of Macadamias: https://houseofmacadamias.com/lex and use code LEX to get 20% off your first order Transcript: https://lexfridman.com/mohammed-el-kurd-transcript EPISODE LINKS: Mohammed's Twitter: https://twitter.com/m7mdkurd Mohammed's Instagram: https://instagram.com/mohammedelkurd Mohammed's Website: https://mohammedelkurd.com Rifqa (book): https://amzn.to/3Oqippl Books Mentioned: The Hundred Years' War on Palestine (book): https://amzn.to/3K7ZtsE PODCAST INFO: Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ YouTube Full Episodes: https://youtube.com/lexfridman YouTube Clips: https://youtube.com/lexclips SUPPORT & CONNECT: - Check out the sponsors above, it's the best way to support this podcast - Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman - Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman - Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time. (00:00) - Introduction (10:41) - Palestine (35:09) - Hate (48:40) - Antisemitism (56:37) - Peace in the Middle East (1:03:34) - West Bank (1:13:43) - Hamas (1:23:31) - Two-state solution (1:39:21) - Jerusalem (1:46:04) - Role of the US (1:47:54) - Ghassan Kanafani (1:58:39) - 2024 Elections (1:59:48) - Poetry (2:09:08) - Language (2:17:36) - Hope

24 Heinä 20232h 23min

#390 – Yuval Noah Harari: Human Nature, Intelligence, Power, and Conspiracies

#390 – Yuval Noah Harari: Human Nature, Intelligence, Power, and Conspiracies

Yuval Noah Harari is a historian, philosopher, and author of Sapiens, Homo Deus, 21 Lessons for the 21st Century, and Unstoppable Us. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: - MasterClass: https://masterclass.com/lex to get 15% off - Eight Sleep: https://www.eightsleep.com/lex to get special savings - ExpressVPN: https://expressvpn.com/lexpod to get 3 months free - InsideTracker: https://insidetracker.com/lex to get 20% off - AG1: https://drinkag1.com/lex to get 1 month supply of fish oil Transcript: https://lexfridman.com/yuval-noah-harari-transcript EPISODE LINKS: Yuval's Twitter: https://twitter.com/harari_yuval Yuval's Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/yuval_noah_harari Yuval's Website: https://www.ynharari.com Sapiens (book): https://amzn.to/3NQB9wt Homo Deus (book): https://amzn.to/44MzwXu 21 Lessons for the 21st Century (book): https://amzn.to/3Dfkz4D Unstoppable Us (book): https://amzn.to/3NYyBg5 PODCAST INFO: Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ YouTube Full Episodes: https://youtube.com/lexfridman YouTube Clips: https://youtube.com/lexclips SUPPORT & CONNECT: - Check out the sponsors above, it's the best way to support this podcast - Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman - Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman - Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time. (00:00) - Introduction (08:36) - Intelligence (27:31) - Origin of humans (37:53) - Suffering (58:35) - Hitler (1:17:07) - Benjamin Netanyahu (1:35:30) - Peace in Ukraine (1:52:20) - Conspiracy theories (2:06:59) - AI safety (2:21:16) - How to think (2:31:00) - Advice for young people (2:33:41) - Love (2:43:50) - Mortality (2:48:14) - Meaning of life

17 Heinä 20232h 52min

#389 – Benjamin Netanyahu: Israel, Palestine, Power, Corruption, Hate, and Peace

#389 – Benjamin Netanyahu: Israel, Palestine, Power, Corruption, Hate, and Peace

Benjamin Netanyahu is the Prime Minister of Israel. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: - Numerai: https://numer.ai/lex - BetterHelp: https://betterhelp.com/lex to get 10% off - NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/lex to get free product tour - Shopify: https://shopify.com/lex to get $1 per month trial Transcript: https://lexfridman.com/benjamin-netanyahu-transcript EPISODE LINKS: Netanyahu's Twitter: https://twitter.com/netanyahu Netanyahu's Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/b.netanyahu Netanyahu's Website: https://www.netanyahu.org.il Bibi: My Story (book): https://amzn.to/3XJd6UR A Durable Peace (book): https://amzn.to/3pIofbX Fighting Terrorism (book): https://amzn.to/3XNp6on PODCAST INFO: Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ YouTube Full Episodes: https://youtube.com/lexfridman YouTube Clips: https://youtube.com/lexclips SUPPORT & CONNECT: - Check out the sponsors above, it's the best way to support this podcast - Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman - Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman - Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time. (00:00) - Introduction (08:22) - Hate (14:02) - Judicial reform and protests (22:38) - AI (32:40) - Competition (39:21) - Power and corruption (46:32) - Peace (1:01:05) - War in Ukraine (1:05:01) - Abraham Accords (1:09:02) - History (1:13:48) - Survival

12 Heinä 20231h 17min

#388 – Robert F. Kennedy Jr: CIA, Power, Corruption, War, Freedom, and Meaning

#388 – Robert F. Kennedy Jr: CIA, Power, Corruption, War, Freedom, and Meaning

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is an activist, lawyer, author, and candidate for the President of the Unites States. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: - House of Macadamias: https://houseofmacadamias.com/lex and use code LEX to get 20% off your first order - Eight Sleep: https://www.eightsleep.com/lex to get special savings - InsideTracker: https://insidetracker.com/lex to get 20% off - AG1: https://drinkag1.com/lex to get 1 month supply of fish oil TRANSCRIPT: https://lexfridman.com/robert-f-kennedy-jr-transcript/ EPISODE LINKS: Robert's Twitter: https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr Robert's Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/robertfkennedyjr Robert's Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/rfkjr Robert's Campaign Website: https://www.kennedy24.com PODCAST INFO: Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ YouTube Full Episodes: https://youtube.com/lexfridman YouTube Clips: https://youtube.com/lexclips SUPPORT & CONNECT: - Check out the sponsors above, it's the best way to support this podcast - Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman - Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman - Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time. (00:00) - Introduction (09:05) - US history (13:21) - Freedom (15:16) - Camus (18:38) - Hitler and WW2 (27:50) - War in Ukraine (51:11) - JFK and the Cuban Missile Crisis (1:16:19) - JFK assassination conspiracy (1:25:53) - CIA influence (1:34:52) - 2024 elections (1:46:36) - Jordan Peterson (1:48:18) - Anthony Fauci (1:51:44) - Big Pharma (2:11:24) - Peter Hotez (2:17:05) - Exercise and diet (2:19:30) - God

6 Heinä 20230s

#387 – George Hotz: Tiny Corp, Twitter, AI Safety, Self-Driving, GPT, AGI & God

#387 – George Hotz: Tiny Corp, Twitter, AI Safety, Self-Driving, GPT, AGI & God

George Hotz is a programmer, hacker, and the founder of comma-ai and tiny corp. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: - Numerai: https://numer.ai/lex - Babbel: https://babbel.com/lexpod and use code Lexpod to get 55% off - NetSuite: http://netsuite.com/lex to get free product tour - InsideTracker: https://insidetracker.com/lex to get 20% off - AG1: https://drinkag1.com/lex to get 1 year of Vitamin D and 5 free travel packs Transcript: https://lexfridman.com/george-hotz-3-transcript EPISODE LINKS: George's Twitter: https://twitter.com/realgeorgehotz George's Twitch: https://twitch.tv/georgehotz George's Instagram: https://instagram.com/georgehotz Tiny Corp's Twitter: https://twitter.com/__tinygrad__ Tiny Corp's Website: https://tinygrad.org/ Comma-ai's Twitter: https://twitter.com/comma_ai Comma-ai's Website: https://comma.ai/ Comma-ai's YouTube (unofficial): https://youtube.com/georgehotzarchive Mentioned: Learning a Driving Simulator (paper): https://bit.ly/42T6lAN PODCAST INFO: Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ YouTube Full Episodes: https://youtube.com/lexfridman YouTube Clips: https://youtube.com/lexclips SUPPORT & CONNECT: - Check out the sponsors above, it's the best way to support this podcast - Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman - Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman - Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time. (00:00) - Introduction (08:04) - Time is an illusion (17:44) - Memes (20:20) - Eliezer Yudkowsky (32:45) - Virtual reality (39:04) - AI friends (46:29) - tiny corp (59:50) - NVIDIA vs AMD (1:02:47) - tinybox (1:14:56) - Self-driving (1:29:35) - Programming (1:37:31) - AI safety (2:02:29) - Working at Twitter (2:40:12) - Prompt engineering (2:46:08) - Video games (3:02:23) - Andrej Karpathy (3:12:28) - Meaning of life

30 Kesä 20233h 15min

#386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI

#386 – Marc Andreessen: Future of the Internet, Technology, and AI

Marc Andreessen is the co-creator of Mosaic, co-founder of Netscape, and co-founder of the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: - InsideTracker: https://insidetracker.com/lex to get 20% off - ExpressVPN: https://expressvpn.com/lexpod to get 3 months free - AG1: https://drinkag1.com/lex to get 1 year of Vitamin D and 5 free travel packs Transcript: https://lexfridman.com/marc-andreessen-transcript EPISODE LINKS: Marc's Twitter: https://twitter.com/pmarca Marc's Substack: https://pmarca.substack.com Marc's YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/@a16z Andreessen Horowitz: https://a16z.com Why AI will save the world (essay): https://a16z.com/2023/06/06/ai-will-save-the-world Books mentioned: 1. When Reason Goes on Holiday (book): https://amzn.to/3p80b1K 2. Superintelligence (book): https://amzn.to/3N7sc1A 3. Lenin (book): https://amzn.to/43L8YWD 4. The Ancient City (book): https://amzn.to/43GzReb PODCAST INFO: Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ YouTube Full Episodes: https://youtube.com/lexfridman YouTube Clips: https://youtube.com/lexclips SUPPORT & CONNECT: - Check out the sponsors above, it's the best way to support this podcast - Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman - Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman - Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time. (00:00) - Introduction (05:01) - Google Search (12:49) - LLM training (25:20) - Truth (31:32) - Journalism (41:24) - AI startups (46:46) - Future of browsers (53:09) - History of browsers (59:10) - Steve Jobs (1:13:45) - Software engineering (1:21:00) - JavaScript (1:25:18) - Netscape (1:30:22) - Why AI will save the world (1:38:20) - Dangers of AI (2:08:40) - Nuclear energy (2:20:37) - Misinformation (2:35:57) - AI and the economy (2:42:05) - China (2:46:17) - Evolution of technology (2:55:35) - How to learn (3:03:45) - Advice for young people (3:06:35) - Balance and happiness (3:13:11) - Meaning of life

22 Kesä 20233h 15min

#385 – Jimmy Wales: Wikipedia

#385 – Jimmy Wales: Wikipedia

Jimmy Wales is the co-founder of Wikipedia. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: - Hexclad Cookware: https://hexclad.com/lex and use code LEX to get 10% off - Eight Sleep: https://www.eightsleep.com/lex to get special savings - House of Macadamias: https://houseofmacadamias.com/lex and use code LEX to get 20% off your first order Transcript: https://lexfridman.com/jimmy-wales-transcript EPISODE LINKS: Jimmy's Twitter: https://twitter.com/jimmy_wales Jimmy's Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jimmy_Wales Donate to Wikipedia: https://donate.wikimedia.org WT.Social: https://wt.social/ PODCAST INFO: Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ YouTube Full Episodes: https://youtube.com/lexfridman YouTube Clips: https://youtube.com/lexclips SUPPORT & CONNECT: - Check out the sponsors above, it's the best way to support this podcast - Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman - Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman - Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman OUTLINE: Here's the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time. (00:00) - Introduction (05:10) - Origin story of Wikipedia (11:14) - Design of Wikipedia (18:07) - Number of articles on Wikipedia (24:18) - Wikipedia pages for living persons (45:11) - ChatGPT (58:42) - Wikipedia's political bias (1:04:46) - Conspiracy theories (1:17:51) - Facebook (1:26:09) - Twitter (1:46:45) - Building Wikipedia (2:01:18) - Wikipedia funding (2:12:38) - ChatGPT vs Wikipedia (2:17:19) - Larry Sanger (2:22:51) - Twitter files (2:25:43) - Government and censorship (2:40:07) - Adolf Hitler's Wikipedia page (2:51:49) - Future of Wikipedia (3:03:51) - Advice for young people (3:11:13) - Meaning of life

18 Kesä 20233h 19min

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