GM93: The Calm Before a Systemic Reckoning ft. William White

William White returns to assess a world edging closer to systemic stress. Drawing on decades advising central banks, he describes a macro regime defined not by temporary shocks, but by a deep reversal of the forces that once kept inflation low and debt manageable. From de-globalization and demographic decline to energy constraints and fragile supply chains, the conversation traces how rising costs collide with record public and private leverage. White warns that policy makers are trapped between inflationary pressures and debt sustainability, with no clean exit in sight. The discussion closes on AI, currency fragmentation, and the uncomfortable possibility that today’s stability masks a far more dangerous future.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow William on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why unchecked booms become more dangerous over time

01:37 - Setting the stage for a new global macro regime

03:53 - From disinflation to persistent inflation pressure

07:10 - Supply side forces reversing after decades of support

12:07 - Debt accumulation and unintended policy consequences

13:03 - Why higher rates did not trigger an immediate crisis

18:53 - Debt dynamics and the problem of sustainability

19:57 - Tipping points and the psychology of market breaks

26:40 - What happens when trust in central banks erodes

35:51 - AI optimism and the risk of large scale malinvestment

39:44 - Lessons from financial history and false starts

41:08 - Why economic models failed to see this coming

48:32 - The dollar, fragmentation, and global currency shifts

57:56 - Europe’s opportunity and its unresolved risks

01:03:24 - Complexity, politics, and why forecasting breaks down

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

Tämä jakso on lisätty Podme-palveluun avoimen RSS-syötteen kautta eikä se ole Podmen omaa tuotantoa. Siksi jakso saattaa sisältää mainontaa.

Jaksot(928)

SI395: Finding Alpha in the Strait of Chaos ft. Andrew Beer

Markets are currently being shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, rapid technological change, and shifting investor behavior. In this episode, Andrew and Niels explore how these forces are influencing t...

11 Huhti 1h 16min

OI21: The Hidden Edge in Markets No One Is Trading ft. Tom Babbedge

What if the real edge in markets is not in adding more assets, but in choosing fundamentally different ones? In this episode, Moritz Siebert speaks with Tom Babbedge about why alternative commodity ma...

8 Huhti 47min

SI394: The Quarter That Tested Every Trend Follower ft. Katy Kaminski & Harry Moore

Markets rarely offer clarity when it matters most. In this episode, together with Katy Kaminski and Harry Moore, we reflect on a first quarter defined by sharp reversals, energy shocks, and rising dis...

4 Huhti 1h 13min

GM98: Powerlessness Is Rising and Nobody Is Ready ft. Peter Atwater

What happens when confidence fades and power becomes concentrated in fewer hands? Together with Peter Atwater we explore a world dividing along lines of control and vulnerability. From geopolitical co...

1 Huhti 1h 13min

SI393: The Illusion of Control in Modern Markets ft. Yoav Git

Markets often appear logical in hindsight, yet behave unpredictably in real time. In this episode, Niels and Yoav explore how recent events, from geopolitical shocks to shifting narratives, reveal the...

28 Maalis 1h 5min

IL47: The AI Revolution That Will Redefine What It Means to Be Human ft. Craig Mundie

In today’s episode we talk to Craig Mundie, formerly the Chief Technical Officer at Microsoft and a leading advocate for responsible development of artificial intelligence. He joins Kevin Coldiron to ...

25 Maalis 1h

SI392: The Hidden Cracks in Systematic Strategies No One Talks About ft. Nick Baltas

Markets have shifted quickly in 2026, forcing systematic investors to reassess what is signal and what is noise. In this episode, Niels and Nick explore recent drawdowns, volatility in commodities, an...

21 Maalis 1h 4min

ALO34: Building an Asset Owner Mindset in Modern Pension Investing ft. Dan Mikulskis

In this episode, Alan Dunne speaks with Dan Mikulskis, CIO of People’s Partnership, about the evolution of large pension funds and what it means to think like an asset owner. Managing over £40 billion...

18 Maalis 1h 8min