Malaria Trends and SRM - Hussain

In this episode, @geoengineering1 interviews Athar Hussain, physicist and professor of atmospheric science at COMSATS University, Pakistan, about his recent study examining how SAI could influence malaria transmission across South Asia. Using the VECTRI malaria model, the research compares an unmitigated high-emissions pathway (RCP8.5) with the GLENS-SAI scenario, which stabilizes global temperatures at 2020 levels, across seven countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Iran, India, Nepal, and Pakistan.

The discussion highlights that while SAI could reduce overall malaria transmission intensity across much of the region by lowering vector density, entomological inoculation rates (EIR), and case numbers, its effects are spatially uneven, with localized increases projected in parts of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and Nepal. The conversation also explores the public-health implications of these shifts, the potential risks and trade-offs of solar geoengineering, and the importance of region-specific strategies, local expertise, and international collaboration in addressing climate-related health risks.

Paper: Hussain, A., Shoaib, M., & Latif, M. (2025). Malaria transmission dynamics under climate change and solar geoengineering in South Asia: a GLENS-based assessment. Malaria Journal, 24(1), 439. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-025-05666-2

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