EMD104 - Market Update: IEA Confirms Glut

Welcome to Energy Markets Daily. Wednesday, January 21, 2026 — Market Update. Week four of 2026. **CRUDE OIL:** WTI fell to $59.50 per barrel, down 1.3%. Brent tracking lower near $63. Geopolitical tensions easing but tariff fears clouding demand outlook. Kazakhstan halted output at two large oilfields temporarily but effect subsided. US crude inventory build expected weighing on prices. OPEC forecasts demand growth 1.4 million bpd in 2026, sees market balanced. OPEC+ pumped 42.83 million bpd in December. IEA released report today projecting supply exceeds demand by 3.84 million bpd in 2026. Major divergence between OPEC balance view and IEA glut view. Our thesis: believe the glut. Prices trading above Goldman and EIA forecasts of $52-56. Mean reversion coming. **NATURAL GAS:** Henry Hub surged to $3.94, up 0.8%. Cold snap delivering. Storage at 3,185 Bcf as of Jan 9, down 71 Bcf week over week. Still 106 Bcf above five-year average. EIA projects $3.46 average for 2026, $3.38 Q1. JP Morgan $3.85 Q1. Enverus $3.80 winter. BMI $3.90 for 2026. Current price above forecasts on cold weather demand. Structural bull case intact. Buy the dips. **CATALYST WATCH:** IEA report released today. EIA Petroleum Status Report Thursday Jan 22. **BOTTOM LINE:** Crude glut confirmed by IEA. Gas catching bid on cold weather. Trade the decoupling. Short crude rallies, long gas dips. **FINAL WORD:** Energy project needs capital? energymarkets@protonmail.com. Subject: Energy Capital. This is Energy Markets Daily. Thursday: Strategic Positioning.

Tämä jakso on lisätty Podme-palveluun avoimen RSS-syötteen kautta eikä se ole Podmen omaa tuotantoa. Siksi jakso saattaa sisältää mainontaa.

Jaksot(260)

Geographic Feature: Nevada

Thursday, September 10, 2026. Nevada remains marginal oil/gas producer (172k bbl 2025 down from 177k 2024, 207k 2023; historical peak 4M bbl 1990) with zero in-state refining capacity (only asphalt 1,...

10 Syys 2min

Geopolitical Premium Persists

Wednesday, September 9, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading near $93-$94/bbl testing $95 resistance. Sep 8 close Oct 2026 contract $93.50-$93.62 (+1.1-2.3% day), intraday highs $94.73, spot $92.36-$93...

9 Syys 2min

Technicals: Week 36

Tuesday, September 8, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS. WTI crude trading near $92 to $93 per barrel. Testing key resistance. Price action September 7 close around $90 to $92.29. Consolidating near $90 afte...

8 Syys 2min

Geographic Feature: Costa Rica

Friday, September 4, 2026. COSTA RICA ENERGY PROFILE. OIL AND NATURAL GAS: Costa Rica reports no proven oil reserves, produces only ~400 b/d petroleum liquids (unchanged YoY 2025; zero crude/NGPL). Oi...

4 Syys 2min

Geographic Feature: Yemen

Thursday, September 3, 2026. YEMEN OIL AND GAS PROFILE. RESERVES: Oil reserves consistently estimated at ~3 billion barrels (Masila, Marib/Sab'atayn, Shabwa basins), stable since ~2009, ranking ~27th ...

3 Syys 2min

Middle East Tensions

Wednesday, September 2, 2026. CRUDE OIL SPIKE. September 2, 2026: Closed at approximately $89.39 USD per barrel. Open: approximately $89.24. High: approximately $89.61. Low: approximately $89.22. Chan...

2 Syys 2min

Technicals: Week 35

Tuesday, September 1, 2026. CRUDE OIL TECHNICALS: Price context ~$84.90-$86.29 recently (e.g., 85.63 one platform), intraday ranges 84.13-86.78. RSI14 ~54.9-58 neutral-to-buy signal; some 57-62 shorte...

1 Syys 2min

Strategic Positioning: Week 35

Monday, August 31, 2026. WEEK 35 OPENS. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: August 28, 2026 $83.40 (open ~$83.67, high ~$83.78, low ~$82.25; volume ~142K). August 29, 2026 No trading data available (weekend/non-trading...

31 Elo 2min