#58 - Jared Dillian, founder of Armington Capital,  on Risk, Sentiment, and Why Courage Matters When Markets Feel Easy (recorded 01/28/26)

In this episode of The Bull of Wall Street, Talley Léger welcomes a longtime colleague and market veteran, Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirt Nap, founder of Armington Capital, and an author of seven books.

Jared and Talley reconnect through shared Lehman-era market scars and use that lens to talk about what investors consistently miss before major dislocations—leverage, liquidity, and confidence, and why those risks may be building quietly in private credit and private equity today.

From there, the conversation shifts into the advisor playbook: how to think about risk management when markets are calm, why the Fed follows the “path of least embarrassment,” how advisors can use sentiment without becoming day traders, and why diversification across asset classes is still the most underutilized edge in wealth management.

What you’ll learn

• The warning signs investors tend to miss before major crises—and why leverage is the real accelerant
• Why Jared’s top concern isn’t mega-cap concentration, it’s private markets leverage
• How to approach risk management when markets are calm: “buy protection when you can, not when you have to”
• The Fed’s true incentive structure, and why it’s often behind the curve
• How advisors can use sentiment and positioning without turning into short-term traders
• Why US-only “diversification” isn’t diversification—and how to build a real multi-asset portfolio
• The behavioral mistake that shows up in every bull market: chasing what just worked
• Why the best advisors need courage to do something different (even when it’s unpopular)

Chapters

01:10 – Dirtcon vs. DJ’ing Omnia: which was better (and why)
03:05 – Jared’s subscriber base and what Dirtcon has become
03:45 – Lessons from Lehman and market crises: what people always miss
06:45 – Concentration risk vs. real systemic risk
08:10 – What drives crises: leverage, liquidity, and confidence
09:10 – Jared’s portfolio positioning: international, EM, commodities
11:40 – Where leverage is building now: private credit / private equity
13:20 – Markets at all-time highs: risk management when things feel easy
14:00 – “Buy protection when you can, not when you have to” (pandemic puts story)
15:20 – The biggest misconception about the Fed
16:00 – “The Fed follows the path of least embarrassment”
18:20 – 2022: when 60/40 broke and there was nowhere to hide
19:00 – Is the Fed data dependent or political?
21:15 – Does monetary policy still have signal?
23:00 – How advisors can use sentiment without becoming day traders
24:10 – Jared’s Edward Jones story: advisors chasing fear and greed
28:00 – Bull markets: chasing, unrealistic expectations, and mean reversion risk
30:20 – Valuations: useful long-term, not a short-term timing tool
31:55 – Why US-only portfolios are dangerously narrow
33:45 – Fear vs. greed: what’s most dangerous now
37:10 – Forecasting vs. diversification (and Jared’s new book)
40:20 – Jared’s 7th book: The Awesome Portfolio
41:00 – Market narratives: analysis vs. storytelling (what actually sells)
47:50 – Smart brevity and cutting through research noise
49:50 – Closing advice: courage, “do no harm,” and protecting client wealth
52:10 – Where to follow Jared + subscriber discount

Guest

Jared Dillian, Editor, The Daily Dirt Nap, Founder & Principal, Armington Capital
Author (7 books), including upcoming The Awesome Portfolio

Host

Talley Léger, Chief Market Strategist, WCG

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