Whit Ayres on 2024: How Weak is Trump? What about Biden?

Whit Ayres on 2024: How Weak is Trump? What about Biden?

Summing up the state of the 2024 race as we head toward the South Carolina primaries, veteran Republican pollster Whit Ayres says if the election were held today “Trump would win … in the Electoral College.”

Yet despite Trump’s quasi-incumbency, 40-45% of the Republican primary electorate have voted for other candidates to date. According to Ayres, Trump suffers from some major weaknesses as a candidate, which leave an opening for Nikki Haley—and portend problems for Trump in a general election. But Biden may be even weaker. As Ayres puts it, “the vast majority of Americans, including a vast majority of Democrats, think Biden is just too old to serve effectively…and virtually no one in either party thinks Kamala Harris is ready for prime time.” Despite the appearance of stability in the race—the increasing likelihood of a 2020 rematch—Ayres notes that a full 2/3 of Americans are unhappy with the choice between Biden and Trump. Kristol and Ayres consider how, beneath the surface, the 2024 contest may be unstable—with the potential for domestic and geopolitical events to intervene, and third-party challenges that could upend the race.

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Phillips O’Brien on Ukraine, Iran, and What’s Next

Phillips O’Brien on Ukraine, Iran, and What’s Next

Where do things stand in the wars in Ukraine and Iran? What are the implications of these wars for military technology, the future of warfare, and our highly fluid geopolitical environment?In this Con...

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David Axelrod on the 2026 Midterms: How Big a Wave?

David Axelrod on the 2026 Midterms: How Big a Wave?

We are less than seven weeks away from Election Day, and early voting already has begun in some states. To discuss where things stand and where American politics might go after the midterms, we are jo...

18 Syys 56min

Doug Sosnik on Two Different Elections: 2026 and 2028

Doug Sosnik on Two Different Elections: 2026 and 2028

"We're 60 days away from a completely different political environment. And I think people are underestimating how different it's going to be, and how volatile it's going to be without really any moori...

27 Elo 1h 7min

Eric Edelman: Trump and the American Military

Eric Edelman: Trump and the American Military

Where do things stand with the military in Trump’s Second Term? What are the consequences of a shortage of munitions in the conduct of the Iran War? What should we make of the firings of senior milita...

7 Elo 1h 6min

Don Kettl: The Trump Administration and the Politicization of the Civil Service

Don Kettl: The Trump Administration and the Politicization of the Civil Service

"Am I worried? A lot. Why? Because they’re not done yet. And it’s not just the president, but the efforts of those around him and on the outside supporting him who have a very huge and fundamental and...

24 Heinä 1h 1min

Ryan Goodman: The Trump Administration, the Supreme Court, and the Rule of Law

Ryan Goodman: The Trump Administration, the Supreme Court, and the Rule of Law

A year and a half into the second Trump administration, is the Supreme Court meeting the moment? What are the broader implications of recent Court decisions and the conduct of lower courts? What might...

9 Heinä 1h 2min

Harvey Mansfield on Rational Control and Liberalism

Harvey Mansfield on Rational Control and Liberalism

What makes Niccolò Machiavelli the founder of modern politics? How did liberal thinkers like Locke, Montesquieu, and the American founders modify Machiavelli’s inventions? How did later thinkers like ...

26 Kesä 55min

Ron Brownstein: What’s Going To Happen in 2026?

Ron Brownstein: What’s Going To Happen in 2026?

“This election looks like a classic collision between the irresistible force and the immovable object. The irresistible force is the elevated share of Americans who disapprove of Trump’s performance a...

11 Kesä 1h 5min

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