Thin Ice

Can't taste, can't smell, half a beer in - Marko puts his best foot forward for today's episode... And somehow it might be one of our best. The lads cover the Iran situation from every angle: why regime collapse is actually scarier than regime change, what a real 1973-style energy crisis looks like if the Strait goes dark, and why nobody - not allies, not neighbors - is rushing to Tehran's rescue. They dive into Trump's escort policy, the rules-based order debate, Ukraine hitting Russian oil infrastructure, and whether any of this even qualifies as a war. There's also some serious time spent debating Dubai - who it actually serves, whether its neutrality holds, and who could rival it as the next real safe haven. Throw in AI wargames going nuclear, Taiwan logic, brain drain, Venezuela as a leverage play, and a World War Z detour, and that's your episode :)

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Timestamps:

(01:23) - Wisconsin field research

(02:22) - Thin ice markets framing

(04:38) - Yom Kippur energy shock

(07:51) - Regime collapse scenario

(12:00) - Iran capabilities and drones

(15:46) - Trump shipping insurance rant

(26:08) - Allies reactions and Europe

(30:05) - Spain politics and energy

(31:48) - Combat Operation Wordplay

(34:50) - Ukraine Hits Russian Oil

(37:11) - Rules Based Order Myth

(39:31) - Why No World War

(42:00) - Nukes Change Everything

(46:51) - How Many Countries Bombed

(50:10) - World War Incentives

(51:16 AI War Games Go Nuclear

(53:19) - Dubai Safe Haven Debate

(01:01:57) - UAE Risks And Rivals

(01:03:42) - Picking New Safe Havens

(01:05:14) - What Makes UAE Hard to Copy

(01:08:35) - Neutrality and No Opinions

(01:10:50) - Rubio Quote and Exit Ramps

(01:13:26) - Israel Tech Debate and Stats

(01:18:56) - Regional Hegemon and PR Problem

(01:25:05) - Gulf States Need Israel Intel

(01:35:26) - World War Z Detour

(01:37:05) - Venezuela Leverage and Wrap Up

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro