What Trump got wrong about Iran, what the IDF got wrong about Hezbollah: Amos Harel on wars with no exit strategy

As the war with Iran drags on and the conflict with Hezbollah intensifies, a growing number of Israelis are “losing faith” in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s promises of a decisive victory, Haaretz senior defense analyst Amos Harel said on the Haaretz Podcast.

IDF senior officers admitted this week that Israel underestimated Hezbollah’s remaining capabilities following the November 2024 cease-fire, Harel said.

At the moment, he said, “It's clear to anybody watching this carefully that it's hard to reach a final victory again against Hezbollah. Hezbollah may no longer be the army of terror that it was in 2023, but it is capable of launching 100 rockets a day,” while coordinating their attacks with their Iranian sponsors, in a conflict that has now surpassed the length of the second Lebanon war.

In his conversation on the podcast, Harel noted that Israel’s enemies – Iran, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon – now share a common war philosophy: “You win by not losing.”

“At one point, Hamas assumed that it could defeat Israel. So did Iran. Now, after getting knocked so hard by Israel and the U.S., Iranian ambitions are different. What they're talking about is surviving, suffering blows and remaining on their feet.”

U.S. President Donald Trump fails to understand this, Harel said, which is why he continues to fail to get the deal he seeks to end the conflict. “They're not interested in long-term deals. It's about surviving through chaos; surviving through resistance.”

Read more:

Analysis by Amos Harel: Trump Ramps Up Threats Against Iran, and Braces for Longer War Than Planned

Despite the Netanyahu Government's Promises, the IDF Admits It Can't Disarm Hezbollah

How Hezbollah Turned Into Israel's Main Front in Its War With Iran

Without Evidence, IDF Claims Again That Hezbollah Is Extensively Using Ambulances for Military Purposes

Why Israelis Are Losing Faith in the Iran War

Haaretz Explains: How Does the Israeli Military Censor Work?

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