The Math Behind Cartel Recruitment in Mexico

After a February military operation led to the death of Nemesio Rubén “El Mencho” Oseguera, Mexican authorities searched the cartel leader’s cabin and uncovered logs showing that low-level members of El Mencho’s Jalisco New Generation Cartel earned as little as $140 per week. Many people were surprised by how little the cartel lookouts and hitmen earn, given that their jobs can be, quite literally, deadly. Despite that, the number of people working for these crime groups could fill Estadio Azteca, the stadium where the World Cup kickoff will take place, about two times over.

In this week's episode, Complexity Science Hub’s Dr. Rafael Prieto-Curiel covers why stemming cartel recruitment is crucial for curbing violence in Mexico. The mathematician coauthored a groundbreaking study calculating that, with 175,000 members, cartels represent Mexico’s fifth-largest employer. Moreover, he estimates that they count as the country’s top recruiter, given that they have to repeatedly replenish their ranks following arrests, killings, and disappearances. “They are preventing their own collapse,” he tells AS/COA’s Carin Zissis.

This episode was produced by Khalea Robertson, Luisa Leme, and Camilo Salas. Carin Zissis is the host.

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Read Dr. Prieto-Curiel's research in Science.

The music in the podcast is performed by Alejandro Escuer and Leandro Díaz Keller for Americas Society. Find out about upcoming concerts at musicoftheamericas.org. Find out about upcoming concerts at musicoftheamericas.org. Share your love for Latin America: Join Americas Society.

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