Larry McDonald: SP500 Is A Screaming Sell; But Buy The Dip In Energy

Wilfred Frost welcomes back Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report and bestselling author of “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense” (2009) and “How to Listen When Markets Speak” (2024), for a timely, in-person conversation in London.

Larry thinks the SP500 is “a screaming sell” and would use the post Iran War ceasefire announcement as an opportunity to sell the index, especially Mag7 tech names, which he continues to view as wildly overpriced.

But he would use the dip in energy stocks post-ceasefire as a buying opportunity. Larry explains why he believes we are still only in the “second or third inning” of the hard-asset super-cycle that has already seen outsized gains in precious metals, energy and other real-asset plays like copper since his latest book was published in March 2024, which called for buying hard assets over financial assets.

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Bottom line with the Iran war, Larry argues the latter order effects of the war - particularly the six-week surge in energy prices - are being underestimated, and are likely to drive a major inflation spike later this year. He thinks Wall Street’s muscle memory and recency bias – which led to a major rally when President Trump unwound his April 2025 Liberation Day tariffs – are fuelling a wave of excess optimism around the Middle East, when in reality, the situation is far more complex and unlikely to unwind so neatly.

He and Wilf also dig into why - for the first time ever - he is a buyer of Bitcoin (albeit as a short term trade rather than long term strategy); why the rebuilds in Ukraine, Gaza and Iran are still underappreciated and will drive metals like copper higher; why Microsoft has further to fall before it is attractive; why certain emerging market bonds are vulnerable here; and the “evils” of passive investing.

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Wilf has positions in the OIH and FCG ETFs mentioned in this episode.

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