Irish GDP to shrink for 2nd year? How stupid are financial markets? Graduates join the Trump party

Latest trade data for Ireland suggest exports are struggling - for the first prolonged period in quite a while. That points to a world trade slowdown - and generalised economic weakness everywhere (apart from the US). Irish GDP could well shrink in 2024 if this continues - for the second year in a row.

Inflation surprising to the upside is now a more-or-less global phenomenon after much bigger than expected falls through 2023. Is the last mile on inflation reduction going to be really hard?

A lot depends on energy prices. Notwithstanding the trouble in the Red Sea, oil prices are easing back again. As are natural gas prices. If that continues then all will be well with inflation and interest rates will fall this year, albeit maybe a bit later than mortgage holders would like. If oil prices spike, all bets are off.

Trump's coalition of supporters is expanding to include the educated (graduates) young. That's new, Why do so many Americans think that life is getting worse when the facts speak otherwise. Why are narratives at such variance with reality? Facts and data just ain't what they used to be.

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