FOMC Minutes Confirm Fed Rate Hike Rocket Not Ready for September Liftoff – Ep. 103

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ Look Carefully at the Price Index The GDP number came out yesterday; 3/5% did slightly beat the consensus of 3.3%, but remember, for a while the Atlanta Fed was looking for a print in the 4's.  But the New York Fed was at 2.2%, so the print was much higher than what the  New York Fed was looking for.  But if you look at the internals, the biggest reason that we got 3.5% was because of the price index - the "deflator". Last quarter, when we had 4.2%, the government said that prices rose at an annualized rate of 3%. But in Q3, they said that prices only rose at an annualized rate of 1.7%. Calling B.S. on that Number Now I call B.S. on that number. I don't think we had that significant a slowdown in the annualized rate of inflation between the second quarter of the year and the third quarter of the year. If the 3% inflation rate had held steady, then Q2 GDP would have been just 2.2%. So, obviously not nearly as good a headline as 3.5%.  We'll see if they revise this thing down after the election.  Obviously the Republicans can still campaign on 3.5% even if it turns out that 3.5% was an over-estimate. Largest Trade Deficit in History I think new data is going to come out - particularly on trade.  Donald Trump is out there again bragging about how we're winning the trade war.  I talked about that.  That was the topic of my last podcast because we just printed the worse Merchandise Trade Deficit on a monthly basis in U.S. history. Trade Deficit Amounted to the Largest Subtraction from GDP in 33 Years The trade deficit was so large in the third quarter that it subtracted 1.78 percentage points from the GDP number. That is the largest subtraction from GDP that we have had from trade during a quarter in 33 years.  What happens, when you calculate GDP, you take government spending, you take consumer spending and business spending and then you add in your trade surplus or you subtract out your trade deficit. Now, since we never have a trade surplus, trade is always a net subtraction from the GDP. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

27 Loka 201837min

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ Merchandise Trade Deficit Largest Trade Deficit on Record Today's rally had to overlook the bad news that came out today. I was watching CNBC this morning just before the news was announced and the anchor said, "We've got a lot of news coming out at 8:30 and I am going to go over the news items in order of importance. The first news item was the Durable Goods numbers (+0.8%), and then they went over the weekly jobless claims (202,000) and wholesale inventories (+1%). That was it. That was all they reported.  They left out the most important number that came out at 8:30, which was the Merchandise Trade Deficit ($26 billion - largest trade deficit on record). But as far as CNBC is concerned, the trade deficit is immaterial. It doesn't even matter what the trade deficit is. In a way, they are right. because the markets couldn't give a damn. People Don't Recognize that the Trade Deficit is a Bad Thing At one point in time, the trade deficit was the most important number that came out every month.  It was more important than the Non-Farm Payroll number. That's when people were smart enough to recognize that a trade deficit is actually a bad thing. But Donald Trump has made the trade deficit a big part of his Presidency. It was a big part of his campaign. You would think that maybe CNBC would consider the trade deficit important enough to even mention. If they were presenting the numbers in order of importance, at least mention it 4th, but they don't even mention it at all.  That's how unimportant the trade deficit is. Durable Goods Up Only Because of Defense Spending But the Durable Goods number that came out (+0.8%) was reported as a good number because it was a beat.  They were looking for -.5%. But the main reason that the headline beat was because of military orders - defense spending: aircraft.  But if you take all that stuff out and you just looked at core capital goods, they were looking at an increase of .5% and we got a decrease of .1%. So the only reason the number went up is because the U.S. government took on more debt to buy more military equipment. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

26 Loka 201850min

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ Bearish Signal So much for yesterday's dead cat bounce.  All of the U.S. stock market averages came plunging down today, in fact they all closed below yesterday's lows. So even though we had those big rallies off the lows, today, we lost the entire gain and closed lower than yesterday's low point.  That is is the most bearish signal you can get. Yesterday's Short Covering Remember on yesterday's podcast, I was not impressed with yesterday's rally. I thought it was a typical "reversal Tuesday" rally that should be ignored. To me, it looked like a lot of short covering, particularly if you look at the type of stocks that were being bought.  They seemed to me that they were the stocks that had a lot of shorts, so the shorts saw a big gap down and decided to take an opportunity to cover. But, when you have a lot of shorts who cover, that's actually bearish, because during the next decline, they are no longer there to buy. That's why this next decline could be particularly vicious.  I don't think the decline is finished; as I said, I think it is just getting started, unless the Federal Reserve is going to come in and change the nature of the game, Biggest Single NASDAQ Decline since 2008 Financial Crisis The Dow was down over 600 points today - 608 points. That is a percentage decline of  2.41%.  Of course there were a lot of stocks that did a lot worse.  Earnings today from AT&T - that stock was down just over 8%.  I think there were also some worries concerning the slow growth of subscribers at DirecTV, a recent AT&T acquisition.  Also, UPS, came out with disappointing earnings today. The stock was down 5.5% today.  Boeing might be the only stock that was positive today, up 1.3% - a beat. The fact that this was the biggest single day decline in Nasdaq since the 2008 financial crisis means that today's drop is larger than any point drop that we had during the 2008 financial crisis. You have to go all the way back to the bursting of the dot com bubble.  Something big is happening when you see this kind of drop. The market technically couldn't be weaker. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Loka 201833min

RATE AND REVIEW this podcast on Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ A Big Constituency of Highly Indebted People The fact that you have created this big constituency of highly indebted young people - they're like indentured servants. The government now loans them the money and now they are in debt to the government for the rest of their lives. But now the government can say, "Vote for me and we'll let you off the hook!" You Don't Have to Repay Your Loan as Long as You Keep Re-Electing Me Or they might have some other program where they do not completely wipe out the debt; maybe if you work for government for a certain number of years - maybe they will try to craft the program in such a way to make sure that these young people constantly vote for whichever politician promises to keep the wolves at bay: "You don't have to repay your loan as long as you keep re-electing me." It is another group of bought voters. Just like Social Security. Why does Trump want to pander to Social Security?  Why does he want to say, "We're never going to cut Social Security."? He wants all the people who are on Social Security to vote for him, or to vote Republican. At Least the Democrats Say the Rich Are Going to Pay for It No one wants to take anything from anybody. Nobody wants to give anybody the bad news.  Trump wants to be all things to all people. Everybody gets everything; no one has to sacrifice.  No one has to pay. Everybody eats free lunch - no one has to cook it. At least the Democrats say the rich are going to pay for it.  Trump says nobody's going to pay for it. It's all going to magically appear because of this booming economy which isn't even booming. At least the Democrats' lie seems a little more believable. They are not saying the money's coming from nothing, it's coming from these rich people who are lucky enough to have all this money and we can just take this money from them - they're not going to miss it because they don't need it anyway, and somehow it's enough for everybody to have everything that they want. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

24 Loka 201858min

Rate and Review This Podcast on iTunes Overwhelming Evidence of a Weakening Economy The Dow Jones was the only one of the major indexes to close the day higher.  The S&P was down slightly, we had larger declines in the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000.  More importantly than the movements that we've just seen on the day, or even the week, look at what's happened thus far during the month of October, which I had been warning on my podcast. It looked like there could be a weak October, given where we were in the market, given how ridiculous the sentiment was in the face of overwhelming evidence that the economy was weakening Russell 2000 Down 9.2% If you look at the numbers, the Dow Jones is down 3.8% so far on the month. That's the best performing of the averages. The S&P, down about 4.7% on the month, Nasdaq Composite down 7.4%; the transport down 8.3% and the Russell 2000 - 9.2% decline. Remember, the Russell 2000 is where everybody wanted to buy. Earlier last month the talk was that you needed to be in the Russell 2000 because the rest of the world was in trouble, you needed a safe haven from all the turmoil around the world, that the U.S was going to win the trade war, and of course, the companies that had the least vulnerabilities to the trade war were the domestic companies that weren't multinational and those are the companies that you would find in the Russell 2000. Small-company U.S. stocks - so people were piling in. Those are the stocks that have done the worst. Down 9.2% on the month. Gold, Gold Stocks Up; Bond Yields Continue to Rise While stocks were going down, gold was going up. Gold is up about 3% so far during the month of October.  Gold stocks doing even better - GDX and GDXJ each up about 8% so far on the month. Bond yields continue to rise; they were higher today; higher on the week; higher on the month and as bond yields are rising, the dollar is also rising, but ever so slightly. We're not seeing that much of a gain in the dollar. But ultimately, the dollar is going to turn around when people finally what should have been obvious all along: that the U.S. economy is not nearly as strong as is generally believed. It is certainly not as strong as the Federal Reserve is claiming. Markets Fall as Fed Shrinks Balance Sheet The FOMC minutes were out earlier  this week and once again, the Fed is displaying extreme confidence in the U.S. economy as it continues to maintain its stance that it will continue to raise interest rates; that it is going to continue with its plan to shrink its balance sheet.  Of course that is the real reason that the markets continue to fall.  The Fed continues to threaten the markets with higher interest rates. When You're in a Bear Market, You Don't Need an Excuse for the Market to Go Down Yesterday, we had a pretty big drop in the markets intra-day; the Dow surrendered some gains and a lot of the people in the media were trying to figure out what was to blame.  They were pointing to speeches that Larry Kudlow made where he was talking tough against China or Trump talking tough or even European Union getting tough with Italy - I forget all the various excuses. But, you know what? the market would have probably fallen even if none of those things had happened. When y0u're in a bear market, and I think there's a very good chance we're in a bear market, you don't need an excuse for the market to go down. The market just goes down. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

20 Loka 201843min

Rate and Review This Podcast on iTunes Thanks to Listeners for 400 Episodes of The Peter Schiff Show Podcast For those of you who say that Peter Schiff does Podcasts when the Dow is down, Dow Jones was up 547 points today.  This is my 400th episode of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast. I want to take a moment to thank my audience - everybody who has been listening to the podcast.  Especially to the people who have listened to all 400 episodes.  By the way,  if you missed a few, they're all archived. Check out all the Archived Episodes of the Shows Some people have been listening for a lot longer.  I was doing a daily talk show for 3 years or so. I started it after my failed Senate campaign to continue to get my ideas out there.  But I eventually did not have enough hours in the day to commit to be at a mic for 2 hours each day doing a live show, even though I enjoyed it - we had a lot of guests and I took a lot of calls. Before I ran for Senate, I did a once a week call-in show, Wall Street Unspun. Some people who are listening to the podcast go all the way back to the Wall Street Unspun days. A Special thanks to the people who have listened all of these years. Please Take the Time to Rate and Review my Podcast Remember, if you have been listening to my podcasts, certainly if you've listened to all of them, do me a favor and rate the podcast on iTunes or whatever platform you use to access my podcast.  Rate the podcast, make comments about the podcast, put 5 stars down there. Market Up, But We May Still be in Bear Territory There is so much overwhelming evidence that the bull market is over, and that's what I want to focus on. The housing stocks had a rally today but the auto stocks are still very weak. The economic data that I've been seeing has been weak but nonetheless, as I said earlier, the Dow was up 547 points, that was 2.17%.  But the NASDAQ Composite was up 214 points - 2.89% on the day. The Russell 2000, which had been getting beaten up was up 43 points today - 2.82%. Gold Steady, Dollar Negative Most of the Day Gold was only off a couple of bucks.  It started the day higher, 5-6-7 dollars, but in the face of this tremendous rally, gold kind of lost its bid.  But it didn't really sell off. It was only down a little bit.  So gold stocks in general were down, but not much.  The dollar spent almost the entire day negative. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Loka 201855min

JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conference https://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/ A Very Volatile and Technically Weak Trading Day for the Dow Here I am for the third day in a row doing a podcast. It's market volatility that has brought me to the mic yet again. The Dow Jones down 525 points; a very volatile and technically weak trading day for the Dow. The market opened down, we quickly sold off, a couple of hundred, but then we rallied back! We got positive.  I think we were up a hundred, maybe more, and then going into the last hour or near the last hour we sold off hard.  the Dow was down I think close to 700, I'm not sure exactly, but then, we got a rally. Not all the way back to unchanged, but then in the final 15 minutes of so the Dow rolled over once again to close just off the lows. Down 525 points. Over 2% down. Not as big a drop as yesterday's drop, but coming on the back of yesterday's drop, it adds up. Some of the Tech Stock Actually Rallied Today The transports, not down as much, another 1.5% added to yesterday's loss. NASDAQ - some of the tech stock actually rallied today, so that helped the NASDAQ; some were down, though. NASDAQ down 93 points, 1.25%.  Russell 2000 down 30 points. That was just under 2%. If the Stock Market Went down Enough, There Would Be a Bid in the Bond Market The Bond market was actually up today.  Finally we had a day where people were buying bonds.  But I said this was going to happen. Eventually, if the stock market went down enough, there would be a bid in the bond market. That's exactly what happened. If the stock market stops falling, then the bond market is going to resume its descent. This is the same dance that we were doing earlier in the year, that eventually came to an end, but we're back where we started from. So if we get stocks going up, then interest rates are going to go back up, which is going to scare the market. Now they're going to go back down, and so now people will buy bonds. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Loka 201828min

JOIN PETER at the New Orleans Investment Conference https://neworleansconference.com/conference-schedule/ 831 Point Rout in the Dow Jones Industrial Average If you listened to Friday's podcast, I mentioned that I thought I would probably be doing a lot of podcasts this week. I did one yesterday, and I am doing another one today because my feeling about the stock market was confirmed today with an 831 point rout in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, down 3.15%. This is the biggest decline that the Dow has had since that 1000+ point drop that we had in February. I think it is maybe the third biggest down day ever, point-wise. Percentage-wise it's not even close. NASDAQ Down Over 4% The DJIA actually did a lot better than a lot of the other averages.  The Dow Jones transports were down just over 4%; 445 points.  the NASDAQ was down over 4% as well - 315 points. Weakness across the board in the stock market today.  And it's not just the homebuilders and the autos. I've been talking about those sectors as leading indicators and, yes, many of those stocks made new 52-week lows today as well. But they were not the worst performers on the day. Financials Helped Lead the Declines The financials were helping to lead the decline.  Again we have Morgan Stanley at a new 52-week low, down 3.3%. Goldman Sachs down 3.6%, a new 52-week low.  But really, the biggest losers on the day were the tech stocks. These have been the stand-outs. This is what has been holding up the market - the FAANG stocks, all of these technology infotech stocks - and a lot of people were actually describing them irrationally as a "safe havens".  I couldn't believe it when people were saying that tech stocks were the new "safe havens". When you hear stuff like that, you know you're close to the end. FAANG Stocks Selling in After-Hours Trading If you look at what some of these darlings did today, and I'm looking at the after-hours prices, too, because they're selling.  More selling is going on now, after the bell. But look at NVIDIA, down over 9%, Amazon down 7.3%, Netflix down 10% on the day. AMD down 11% - Twitter down almost 9%, Apple down 5.5%, Intel 4.5%, Cisco, 4.7%, Facebook down almost 5%. this is  basically one day plus an hour of aftermarket trading. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

11 Loka 201841min