Did August Jobs Ready Fed for Sept. Rate Hike?

Did August Jobs Ready Fed for Sept. Rate Hike?


* Earlier today we released the most important Non-Farm Payroll report ever, at least according to the media
* A WSJ article stated that this report could "seal the deal" on rate hikes
* Interest rates have been at zero for 7 years as the Fed contemplated lift-off
* It all boiled down to one jobs report?
* If the Fed were going to raise interest rates in 2 weeks, how can it count on its accuracy or the fact that numbers will change next month?
* Let's get into the numbers:
* The number we got was 173,000 - well below the consensus forecast
* One of the weaker components was private payrolls, which only grew by 140,000 vs and expected 211,000
* The headline number is the unemployment drop to 5.1% - the lowest in the Obama presidency
* Once again, the devil is in the details
* The unemployment rate is falling because of the mass exodus from the labor force
* Another 261,000 Americans left the labor force this month
* The participation rate held steady at 62.6%
* The lowest rate since 1977
* I think it's heading lower
* The total number of persons not in the labor force rose to a new record: 94,031,000
* Also this month another 158,000 Americans find themselves involuntarily employed part-time
* That's what's responsible for the "improvement" in the labor numbers
* Janet Yellen specifically wanted to an increase in labor force participation and more full-time jobs before contemplating raising rates
* Those numbers have gone in the wrong direction
* Why is nobody pointing this out?
* This is the 9th month in a row that year-over-year factory orders have declined
* The only other time that has happened is during recession
* Every time we've seen a sharp decline in the market accompanied by an increase in the volatility index, the Fed has responded with Quantitative Easing
* More and more people now do not believe the Fed will raise rates in September
* If the Fed raises interest rates and the market keeps falling and the economy rolls over, the Fed loses a lot of credibility
* This is affecting global markets
* The Dow is now in correction
* I pointed out in my last video blog that: a) the Fed has never raised interest rates from zero and b)normally the Fed raises interest rates into an accelerating economy
* This time the Fed is raising interest rates when the economy is weakening
* This time a rate hike will prick a much larger bubble
* Even if the Fed raised rates to a quarter of a percent, that is still cheap money
* The markets are forward-looking and they are not going to like what they see
* The dollar strengthened on anticipation that the Fed will raise rates
* America cannot afford higher interest rates on the debt we have now
* One of the things most people overlook is the huge stockpile of U.Ss treasuries that are held abroad
* Why do the emerging markets have so may dollars?
* In the aftermath of the 1997 Asian economic crisis, they bought dollars as a reserve to defend their currency if it started to fall
* That is happening
* So now, foreign governments are going to start drawing on their reserves, selling treasuries to shore up their currencies
* The vast majority of the accumulation happened after QE1, when we had a currency war
* The media has labeled this sell-off "Quantitative Tightening"
* China has already started to gradually sell treasuries
* The Fed has promised not to roll over maturing treasuries and to shrink the $4.5 trillion balance sheet to about a trillion
* That's $3.5 trillion of Quantitative Tightening
* Interest rates would have to rise dramatically to attract real buyers to U.S. treasuries
* No one can afford higher rates, Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Jaksot(1081)

Central Banks Wage War Against Low Prices – Ep. 46

Central Banks Wage War Against Low Prices – Ep. 46

* Big action from the Central Banks this week * Bank of Canada lowered rates from 1% to .75% * The ECB announced the launch of first QE program * The Euro plunged against gold * Central Banks' goal is to raise the level of inflation to guard against falling prices * Falling prices accelerate economic activity * Regulations and taxes slow down economies * QE in Europe lets the politicians escape the consequences of regulations and taxes * QE will send European money abroad * Inflation is an obstacle to economic growth Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

23 Tammi 201523min

Gold Rally Continues, Yuan/Dollar Peg Explained – Ep. 45

Gold Rally Continues, Yuan/Dollar Peg Explained – Ep. 45

* Biggest 7-day surge in Gold prices since 2011 * U.S. GDP will be lower than in Canada this year * Canadian gold production will rise in 2015 * Gold is rising against most currencies except the Swiss Franc * The IMF still believes the U.S. economy is recovering * Outlook for gold in Australia is also positive * The Yuan will probably be the next peg to go, allowing it to rise against the dollar * The American workforce is being rewarded for incurring large debt to engage in unproductive careers Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Tammi 201522min

Will China Pull a “Switzerland” on the U.S. Dollar?

Will China Pull a “Switzerland” on the U.S. Dollar?

* Thursday, January 15, will be remembered as the day Switzerland abandoned its peg to the Euro * The Swiss defended their policy to peg to the Euro, but suddenly reversed, limiting their losses * They admitted they were wrong * Although the Swiss stock market went down in their currency, it was up in every other currency * Gold is up against everything except the Swiss franc * The news in the Swiss market will be a tremor compared to the earthquake if the Chinese abandon their peg both to the Hong Kong Dollar and the Yuan * America will win the currency war to the detriment of the American people Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Tammi 201524min

Switzerland Loses Currency War Swiss Win – Ep. 44

Switzerland Loses Currency War Swiss Win – Ep. 44

* The Swiss people have given up the inflation ghost to win the currency war * Media reports negative on the news: "silly decision" * Oil down against the Swiss Franc * Swiss stocks up in U.S. dollars * Wall Street expects Eurozone QE, but without Swiss, QE might be less likely * Gold up against other currencies * Franc surging in value against the dollar * This move may signal economic reform * Unfortunately Janet Yellen is not going to get this memo * Volatility from Swiss move is nothing compared to consequences of a U.S. QE 4 * This move is bearish for the U.S. market * Buckle up, it's going to be a bumpy ride Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

15 Tammi 201517min

Denial Runs Deep From Wall Street To Bitcoin – Ep 43

Denial Runs Deep From Wall Street To Bitcoin – Ep 43

* Dow down 600 points in between Tuesday high and Wednesday low * Stock market and real estate are pillars of the phony recovery * Loose government lending standards encouraging mortgage defaults * Dollar down and gold up on low retail sales numbers * Fed not likely to sit out a U.S. recession, trading support for Wall Street over the dollar * The next QE could be bearish for bonds and the dollar * Demise of the recovery illusion will also hurt stocks * Bitcoins down on more bad news * Price does matter as investors seek value * Irredeemable digital currencies will never be money Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

15 Tammi 201533min

Jobs Up But Earnings and Participation Down – Ep. 42

Jobs Up But Earnings and Participation Down – Ep. 42

* December jobs report up; unemployment down * Average hourly earnings dropped * Labor force participation hits new low, except for older Americans * Fewer young workers supporting the Social Security system * Most credit comprised of student loans and auto loans * Auto delinquencies highest since 2008, indicating a bubble * Obama's plan to make community college free will further inflate costs * Charles Evans calls for more inflation before raising interest rates * Denies relationship between cheap money and bubbles * The term "patience" indicates no timeframe for higher rates * Gold stocks very strong and gold prices continue to rise in face of rising dollar Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

11 Tammi 201521min

Gold Breaks Out, Stocks Break Down – Ep. 41

Gold Breaks Out, Stocks Break Down – Ep. 41

* World markets left the gates weak on first full trading week of the year * Catalysts: Declining oil prices and Greece's potential Eurozone exit * The Euro has gone sideways against the dollar for 9 years * The U.S. stock market will decline until the market believes rate hikes are off the table * U.S. will not experience accelerating growth in 2015 * Evidence shows the home market is not strengthening * Young entrepreneurship at a 20-year low * Falling oil prices are a symptom economy is not expanding Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

6 Tammi 201522min

As The New Year Begins, Will The  Recovery End? – Ep. 40

As The New Year Begins, Will The Recovery End? – Ep. 40

* Falling unemployment trends seem to be over * PMI "unexpectedly" drops to 53.9% * Construction spending "unexpectedly" fell .3% * December ISM fell to 55.5 * Draghi's comments at ECB sparked U.S. Dollar rally despite weak data * Eurozone QE not likely * 2014 was a flat year for gold, despite bad press * Dollar price based on higher interest rate expectations * Price of gold has tripled since 2005 * Gold mining costs rise with inflation * The real bubble is the confidence in central bankers Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Tammi 201535min

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