The Peter Schiff Show Podcast4 Joulu 2015

Draghi Fails To Deliver. Will Yellen Be Next? – Ep. 123

* Mario Draghi of the ECB sent shockwaves through the foreign exchange and currency markets today
* He didn't deliver the stimulus traders expected
* The big question is, will Janet Yellen surprise the market by failing to raise rates?
* The ECB did slightly lower interest rates, and extended QE if it will be needed
* Draghi's goal is inflation
* He equates 2% inflation to "price stability", when prices in Europe are stable now
* The big divergence that everybody is trading on a tightening in the U.S. at the same time Europe continues to ease
* The reality is more likely to be the reverse
* If anything, the European recovery is just getting started, and the U.S. recession is just getting started
* As a result of Draghi's decision to hold off on stimulus, the euro was up more than 3% on the day
* The dollar was weak across the board
* The stock market, including the DAX, fell accordingly
* Both U.S. stocks and bonds experienced a selloff
* Cheap money has been fueling rallies all over the world and when the ECB did not deliver it triggered a selloff in the U.S. assets
* The Dow rallied over 2000 points off its September low based on rate hike expectations that did not materialize
* We also got a key reversal in gold
* Overnight it made a new low, but closed substantially above that level
* The euro is still weak, it is just not as weak as the market expected
* The best environment for gold when the weakest currency is the dollar
* I wanted to address Janet Yellen's testimony today responding to questions
* Yesterday, Yellen referred to Q4 GDP forecast consensus as 2-1/2%
* She did not even realize that on that same day the Atlanta Fed reduced their forecast down to 1.4%
* I think the real shocker will be that the Europea Q4 GDP will realize greater growth than the U.S.
* Yellen was asked about Citibank's recent projection that the U.S. will experience a recession in 2016
* Obviously, she can't agree with the projection, as this runs contrary to the Fed's rhetoric
* Asked as a followup, what tools the Fed would use in the event we did experience a recession in 2016, Yellen responded that the Fed would all the tools it has always had
* She said, if we did raise rates, then we would lower them
* Plus, she said it could use the asset purchase program (QE) that "has worked so well in the past
* If QE worked so well in the past, we would not experience a recession in 2016
* You can't call QE a success until rates are normalized and the balance sheet shrinks back down to pre-crash levels
* If the Fed finds that it has to launch QE4 in 2016 because it failed to reach "escape velocity"
* How many QE's does the Fed have to initiate before it admits that it doesn't work, and is actually impossible to end without a great deal of pain?
* This loss of credibility in the Fed will precipitate a dollar crisis
* Anther thing that was ignored by Janet Yellen and the press was the six-year low in the ISM number
* The market is focusing on the service sector, yet the most important jobs are the goods producing jobs
* Lat month, we got a higher than expected jump in the non-manufacturing number:59.1
* This month we wend all the way down to 55.9, which is dangerously close to contraction
* If we get the service and the manufacturing sectors both in contraction, that will be a total recession, supporting Citibank's 65% probability forecast may look optimistic
* Since 2016 is an election year, a recession will not bode well for the Democrats' economic success narrative
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You Know the Bubble’s About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice – Ep. 36

You Know the Bubble's About to Pop When Jim Cramer Gives Germany Economic Advice Ep. 36 * Oil and Russia viewed to be at the epicenter of this week's market chaos * Why is the oil price dropping? The market anticipates a drop in demand due to global recession * Winding down of QE triggering market instability * Economic data still pointing to weakness * Russia raised interest rates to 17% * Ruble crisis is a "dress rehearsal" for the dollar crisis * Our currency crisis will be worse because of our debt * Euro and Yen rallying * This morning gold was up, down, ended up * Volatility indicates changing trends * A recession in the U.S. means QE4 Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Joulu 201424min

Yellen’s Recovery is as real as George ‘s Beach House Ep. 35

Yellen's Recovery is as real as George Costanza's Hamptons Beach House Ep. 35 * Volatile Friday followed by Monday rally trend * The stock market has rallied very high very fast with little technical support. * The gold market had its best week relative to equities. * Only a dozen markets have beaten gold this year. * Rally started with Michigan Consumer Sentiment assisted by Dodd/Frank revisions. * The dollar was mixed at Friday close. * The oil market is indicative of the Fed's movements. * The Fed's history predicts continued to support for bubbles with additional QE, despite reports to the contrary. * QE4 will be bigger than previous QE's and will precipitate higher oil prices. * The pretense that QE is over has fueled the market, but QE4 will trigger the bursting of multiple bubbles. Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

13 Joulu 201430min

Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34

Was the U.S. Oil Boom Just Another Fed Inflated Bubble and is it Contained? Ep. 34 * If oil goes down to $35/barrel we will not be able to produce oil for export at that price. * It is no accident that oil prices are dropping as the Fed is ending QE. * What are the implications for the U.S. Economy if the Oil Bubble bursts? * Good jobs in the industry sector will go away. * Oil sector business loans will default * Investors will lose money. * The fallout will be bigger than the dot com bubble. * If oil was a bubble fueled by cheap Fed money, what's next? * If the collapsing oil prices threaten recession, the Fed may launch QE4. * If the Fed does not launch QE4, other bubbles will be affected. Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Joulu 201419min

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33

Much Ado About Nothing and Economic-Policy Truthers Ep. 33 * Catalyst for the rally was the Retail Sales Report * Cars represent the largest part of the gain * Any slight good news is overblown * Bad news is ignored * Economy is not driven by spending * Economy is driven by savings and production * Gold stable and up on the year against the dollar * Those who question the Government's numbers are being called "Truthers" Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

12 Joulu 201423min

Tax Loss Selling in Bitcoin Ep. 32

Tax Loss Selling in Bitcoin Ep.32 * In 2014 Bitcoin was the worst-performing financial asset * Spending bitcoins triggers a taxable event * Spending or selling at a loss also reflects on your taxes * This holiday season, harvest tax losses while shopping * Write-off could exceed value of gift * You can also buy bitcoins back at a savings from original cost if you wait 30 days * Buy Gold and Silver while harvesting tax loss Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Joulu 201420min

Fannie and Freddie Guarantee Bigger Losses

* U.S. Taxpayers will be forced to guarantee mortgages with 3% down * Qualifiers are low-income or have not owned a home for 3 years * Government is spinning this as "prudent" * Buyers have very little skin in the game * If real estate prices plummet, walking away is an easy choice Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Joulu 201412min

Does Market Volatility Portend a Change of Trend? Ep. 30

* Stock market roller coaster ride this week * Chinese market plummets * Forex markets: Yen rallies after 7-year low * The Swiss may discourage the EU against QE * Unwarranted U.S.optimism as negative data is ignored * Gold and Silver strong despite bad press * Gold outperforming the Russel 2000 * Deficit in Manufactured Goods hit all-time high * China reports record trade surplus Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Joulu 201420min

Draghi Said ECB Considered Buying Every Asset Except Gold: Ep. 29

* What is the goal of the "Inflation Mandate? * What is the exact number of the mandate? * If the real mandate is "less than 2%" they're already there * The European economy is expecting another QE, but I don't expect it. * How they plan QE if they don't know what they are going to buy? * Draghi cites success of U.S. QE, but the Fed has not shrunk its balance sheet. * They discussed buying all assets except gold because this would highlight failure of QE Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Joulu 201425min

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