Stagflation Rears Its Ugly Head – Ep.145

* It looks like Jamie Dimon's bottom turned out to be the trap door I thought it was, with the Dow Jones today down almost 190 points
* The market was let lower by the financials, JP Morgan itself down better than 4%
* Remember it was Jami Dimon having the confidence to put a year's salary into company stock that sparked this rally, but it seems to be losing steam and rolling over
* Because we're not going to get a lasting bottom until the Fed makes that bottom
* It's not going to be a Jamie Dimon bottom, it has to be a Janet Yellen bottom; and as much as I have no interest in seeing Janet Yellen's bottom, that's exactly what we're going to have to do to get a real low in this market
* Every single decline that the market has experienced since 2009, the bottom has been set by the Fed
* It's been the Fed forming that bottom by coming to the rescue with rate cuts, QE programs, Operation Twist, hinting about more QE, and so far, the Fed has done none of that
* The Fed is still sticking to its narrative that rate hikes are coming
* Yes, nobody believes they're coming anytime soon, but that is still the official forecast
* Meanwhile, the markets can't even deal with rates as is
* The gold market will be the mirror image of the stock market; gold was up about $16 today
* It reversed a near $20 decline yesterday, but it consolidating its huge move above $1200
* So we are not getting the pullback that Dennis Gartman and Jim Cramer are hoping for to get on board
* I think if people want to get on board this train, this is the stop.
* If you like gold, just buy it and be happy that you're getting it for $1225 - yes, you could have bought it below $1100 in December, but $1225 is still cheap
* The most interesting about yesterday's drop in gold - the gold stocks didn't really decline
* Most of the gold stocks finished positive on the day
* Gold stocks added to their gains today, and many are sitting on their highest close of the year, and several are at 52-week highs
* Other than the gold stocks, the 52-week high list is pretty short
* The 52-week low list looks like a rap sheet
* Something happened on Friday that made some people believe that help from the Fed is not forthcoming
* Which may be part of the reason why the markets are declining
* The release of the CPI number caught a lot of people by surprise: January consumer prices, forecast to drop by .1%
* The real number was the core rate, which excludes food and energy was up .3, month over month - the biggest jump since August 2011
* The increase in the core price year-over-year was 2.2%, the biggest increase since June of 2012
* Remember, the Fed says our target is 2%, well, we got 2.2!
* We're there! We can raise rates! That's what's so scary
* I wrote a commentary that is posted on this website, "The Fed’s Nightmare Scenario", and I got that title after reading an article in which an economist who, observing that the CPI was 2.2% announced that this is a"dream come true" for the Fed
* He cited inflation as the primary barrier to the Fed's rate increase goals
* The Fed's "mandate" of 2% inflation is finally met
* First, the Fed doesn't have a mandate of 2% inflation. They made that up.
* The Fed's real mandate is price stability, which doesn't require a definition, because everybody knows what the word "stable" means
* The Federal Reserve decided to interpret that mandate to mean an increase of 2%
* The late U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was one of the few justices who believed in the "bizarre concept" of original intent

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