Fed Hikes Rates To Feign Confidence – Ep. 235

* April Fool's Day and all the fools are buying U.S. stocks * Atlanta Fed GDP Now Estimate for Q1 GDP finally down to zero * Despite the fact that the economy is worse than the 2008 crisis, Wall Street expects a Q2 boom * Last Q2 was boosted by Obamacare spending and inventory build * No data supports wishful thinking that Q2 will stage a comeback * U.S. corporate profits fell despite Wall Street gains * Q4 corporate profits dropped by 3% * Final revision for Q4 GDP held at 2%, weaker than expectations * First back to back decline in March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment since October 2013 * Personal Income and Spending rose only .1%, missing expectations for 4th consecutive month * Savings rate increased to 5.8%, contrary to Fed's objective to maintain spending bubble * Savings increase is problematic for the Fed because it undermines the spending spree that masquerades as wealth * The Fed will have to launch QE4 to encourage more spending * The March Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index plunged by 17.4%- the sharpest 1-month decline since 2008 * Chicago PMI was below 50 in March - near 6 year lows * March ADP numbers lowest in 14 months - biggest miss vs expected in 4 years * March ISM Manufacturing Index dropped again to 51.5 - lowest level in 22 months - 5-month decline - first time since 2008 * Construction spending "unexpectedly fell" * Zero might not be the floor for Q1 GDP * Stock market weakening again - oil and gold up * U.S. dollar no longer making new highs * Everyone is going to come to the same conclusion at once triggering violent moves in the market * Right now there are still people willing to buy the dollar, but eventually there will be no one to take the other side of those trades * Countries with smaller balance sheets will start raising rates when dollar plunges and commodities rise * Friday jobs number, the Fed's gauntlet, will start reflecting the rest of the bad economic news * Rate hikes are so far into the future they are beyond QE4 Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

2 Huhti 201525min

* Indiana passed a law to prevent lawsuits targeting religious objection * Pressure and feigned outrage from the left wing machine causes Governor to walk back the meaning of the law * The mark of a free society is the willingness to tolerate intolerance * Liberals are the most intolerant of other peoples' intolerance * In a free market there is always someone who wants my business, even if someone else does not * I would rather get the intolerance out in the open, and just avoid that business * It looks like the Indiana gay couple were searching for a business that would object to participating a gay wedding * Why can't there be a business for bigots? * It doesn't hurt anyone but the business, because it narrows the customer base * The Governor can't stand up for what he believes * Why doesn't he just say that the law allows certain individuals to discriminate based on religion * A small segment of the community is holding everyone else hostage * There is some inherent hypocrisy - whom is it OK to discriminate against? * It should be legal to discriminate against anybody * Government should not give a license to do what they should naturally have a right to do * The government is extolling privileges on individuals that turn into weapons, frivolous lawsuits, and undermine our economy Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

1 Huhti 201537min

* If an employee sues an employer falsely, the employer has no recourse, because it could be interpreted as retaliation * Ms. Pao lost not only on her discrimination claim, she also lost on claim that she was retaliated against * The big problem is the reaction in the media * The tone in the press is supportive to Ms. Pao, even though she was not telling the truth * She was suing for $16 million - her motive was greed * This is not a "victory for women" - it is a loss * The suit makes employers reticent to risk false gender-based accusations * The press promise more sexual discrimination cases in the pipeline, suggesting someone might "get lucky" * Most gender-based lawsuits are never litigated - they are settled for cash * Employers are not going to discriminate based on gender * Gender discrimination is a poor business strategy * This case sends a loud message to employers to avoid the risk of gender based discrimination by avoiding women Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

31 Maalis 201524min

* Pao v. Kleiner Perkins: there should be no damage even if there was discrimination * The law against discrimination is unconstitutional * Employees are free to discriminate - they can work for whomever they want * Why should an employer then lose that right? * Everyone should be free to deal with the consequences of their choices Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

26 Maalis 201519min

* Near 300 point drop in the Dow * NASDAQ down 118 * S&P down 30 points * $1.50 gain in oil and oil stocks up * No significant economic news that would trigger this move * Dollar was not down much lower on day * The 110 level is holding back the euro * Expectations that the euro will roll over on higher U.S. interest rates kept the dollar up * A weak stock market is bad for the dollar and good for gold because the Fed is likely to not raise interest rates or launch QE4 * The only way the Fed can prevent a correction from turning into a bear market is by launching QE4 * The Fed has built this "recovery" on asset bubbles * Launching QE3 guarantees QE4 * The only thing that will stop perpetual stimulus is a currency crisis * Durable Goods Orders were estimated at .7% gain * Actual number came in at a 1.4% decline * Five consecutive monthly declines in Durable Goods X Transportation * The last time that happened was during the months surrounding the 2008 financial crisis * The U.S. economy today is the weakest it has been since the depth of the 2008 financial crisis * The final revisions to Q4 GDP due on Friday are estimated to go down * There's a good chance the number will be lower than 2% * Pundits are making excuses, saying that the "First quarter s always weak" or "It's the weather" * They don't want to come to terms with reality Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

26 Maalis 201510min

* Bad economic news coming in is more a deluge than a trickle * Dollar continuing to drift lower since "patience" was removed * New Zealand Dollar record high against the euro and the Australian dollar * New Zealand enjoys a strong currency, economic growth, low inflation and low unemployment * Swiss franc had a strong day today * Chicago Fed National Activity Index revised down to -.11 * Three consecutive months of declining numbers * Deteriorating numbers reflect pattern similar to pre-QE3 months * Existing home sales number below estimates * February new home sales up, however * Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index -8, twice as low as most negative forecast. declining 4 times in 5 months * CPI came in at .2%, exactly as expected; core up to 1.7 * Price of ground beef up 19.2%, at a record high * The jobs numbers are a lagging indicator * We are likely to see a jobs number downturn based on less optimistic assumptions * Weaker jobs number will keep rates low * The only thing that might drive rates higher is inflation, but goal of "medium term" is vague * Weaker economy and higher inflation will cause dollar to drop * When inflation is the only focus, it will be obvious that the Fed cannot raise rates, driving dollar down * A currency crisis will finally force the Fed to raise rates Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Maalis 201524min

* The Fed removed the word "patience" from their statement while promising patience * We are likely to see weaker employment numbers, further delaying talk of rate hikes * Pundits who failed to foresee the 2008 crisis are now saying the "problem is solved" because they do not understand the problem * The problem is worse now than ever * The Fed caused the 2008 crisis and they are in the process of creating the next, much larger crisis * I have been critical of QE 1,2 and 3 and low interest rates because they only mask the problem * "Failure of Capitalism" comments are actually criticizing our socialist economic policy * The same applies to the Fed, as they are price-fixing the market * Faulty logic assumes that low inflation is the reason for the weak economy * Low inflation, which is not as low as reported, is a silver lining in the economy right now * The rich are making money on inflation because they are leveraged and speculating * Inflation undermines the middle class, business and job creation * Who will be blamed when the consequences of the Fed's policy finally result in crisis? * Free market capitalism is the solution Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Maalis 201529min

* The Fed released long-awaited FOMC official statement * Indicating they will be more patient without the word "patient" than when they were officially patient * Why take the word away in the first place? * The Fed wants to appear to be moving closer to a destination to which it has no intention of arriving * The Fed is clearly more concerned about the economy today; they reduced growth estimates * Janet Yellen said she will not raise rates until she sees improvement in the labor market * The Fed not satisfied with 5-1/2% unemployment * The jobs number is the outlier and will turn around * Housing starts collapsed in February; biggest in 8 years * Economic Surprise Index is most negative in memory * It doesn't matter what the unemployment rate is; the Fed can't raise rates without creating a financial crisis worse than 2008 * The minute the Fed went down the path of QE, they sealed our fate * There is now so much debt that we need QE more than ever * The dollar had a huge rise in anticipation of rate hikes * The Fed is more likely to launch QE4 than to raise interest rates * The Fed is not going to raise interest rates until there is a currency crisis * When the dollar turns, commodity prices will surge in all currencies * The fact that the day of reckoning has been delayed with increased debt means a bigger payday for Euro Pacific Capital investment strategy * It will be better to restructure and default on some of our debt that to deflate it away * Understand the end game, ride it out and have the last laugh Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Maalis 201524min