Fed Dismisses Weak Data to Posture for Another Rate Hike

Fed Dismisses Weak Data to Posture for Another Rate Hike

SchiffReport recorded Saturday, May 6

* On Wednesday of this week, the Federal Reserve against a rate hike in May
* But based on their official statement, the market assigned a much higher probability
* To a rate hike coming in June
* In fact, following Friday's slightly better-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll report, the probability of a June rate hike is not near 100%
* In other words, the markets are certain that a quart-point hike is coming next month
* If the Federal Reserve does raise its rates by a quarter point, that will bring the floor of the official rate finally up to 1%
* The ceiling being 1.25%, so presumably the Fed will target a Fed funds rate somewhere between 1 - 1.25%
* This is still an exceptionally low interest rate indicating extreme monetary accommodation
* Remember, 1% is the absolute low that Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates to in the aftermath of the 2001 recession and the 9/11 terrorist attack
* That artificially low interest rate really provided the air for the housing bubble that resulted in the 2008 Financial Crisis
* So despite these rate hikes, the Fed monetary policy remains extremely accommodative,
* Just not as accommodative as they were before
* If you recall, the main reason I was certain that the Fed was not like to deliver these rate hikes
* Is because I took the Fed at its word that it was data dependent
* And I believed that the Fed would use weak data as an opportunity or an excuse to not raise interest rates
* I was wrong about that, because the Federal Reserve has ignored all of the weakening economic data and has raised rates anyway
* It has raised them very slowly, but nonetheless, it has raised interest rates despite the fact that all the data they claim to depend on would not support that decision
* I thought for 2 reasons the Fed would not want to hike rates
* The first be to delay the onset of the next recession
* After all, raising rates into a weakening economy it would accelerate the onset of that recession
* I thought the Fed would always err on a delay
* But apparently, that is not a concern for the Fed
* One of the reasons this might be the case is because the Fed is concerned about having some ammunition to fight the next recession, rather than to postpone the onset
* Meaning that they want to get interest rates further above zero before the recession officially begins so that once it is here, they have more room to cut rates
* Another reason that the Fed has been more willing to raise rates has to do with the action in the U.S. stock market
* I thought the Fed would be reluctant to raise rates for fear of how higher rates might impact the stock market
* But it seems the stock market has found another prop
* It is no longer relying on cheap money; it now also relying on hope and optimism surrounding the election of Donald Trump
* And the idea that he is somehow going to "Make America Great Again"
* With deregulation, tax cuts and all sorts of economic stimulus
Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Jaksot(1081)

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 16

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 16

Episode 16 Synopsis: * Looking under the 5.8% unemployment number headline * Biggest increase was in food service * Labor force participation rate is low * Employment costs are high * Gold & gold stocks rally * European markets encouraged by Mario Draghi's stimulus talk * If the economy disappoints, U.S. may look toward stimulus, too Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

8 Marras 201430min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 15

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 15

Episode 15 Republican victory a reality only because recovery is a fantasy Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

6 Marras 201426min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 14

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 14

Episode 14 The U.S Recovery is as Real as Ireland is a Part of the U.K. Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

6 Marras 201429min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 13

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 13

Episode 13 Synopsis: Treats on Wall Street Equal one Big Trick. Belief that QE worked sparks optimism: * New record high in Dow Jones & S&P * NASDAQ highest since 2000 * Dollar index closed at a 4-year high * Yen at a 6-year low * Gold/Silver prices at a 4-year low * Gold Stocks at a 10-year low or more Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

6 Marras 201428min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 12

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 12

Episode 12 Synopsis: Greenspan's QE Criticism Too Little Too Late * FOMC declares "substantial improvement" in economy. * Does this narrative reflect the best possible spin or ignorance? * Behind the 3.5% GDP number: * Deflator - 1.3% indicates decrease in inflation. * 4.6% surge in gov't spending * Big drop in trade deficit resulting from drop in crude oil prices adds 1.3% to GDP Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

2 Marras 201434min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 11

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 11

Episode 11 Synopsis: Where is the Apology? Preview of the Michael Brown Grand Jury case does not support liberal media's narrative. * The officer knew that Michael Brown had just robbed a convenience store. * The bullets entered Michael Brown from front as he was approaching the officer. * Blood evidence on Michael Brown indicates he was moving toward the officer. * Wounds in upper arm indicate he did not have his arms in the air. * Michael Brown was shot in his thumb at extremely close range. * A majority of eyewitnesses support the officer's testimony Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

2 Marras 201438min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 10

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 10

Episode 10 Synopsis Hillary's Fractured Economic Theory: * Raising the minimum wage will create jobs. * Businesses don't create jobs; the government creates jobs. * Regan Economics "failed spectacularly". * Clinton's economy was based on "arithmetic", not a bubble. Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

31 Loka 201420min

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 9

SchiffRadio Podcast Episode 9

Episode 9 Synopsis * Deflation Spin Cycle: Peter debunks recent articles "redefining" deflation. * QE Infinity: Brandeis economics professor predicts the Fed doesn't need an exit strategy. Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

29 Loka 201421min

Suosittua kategoriassa Liike-elämä ja talous

sijotuskasti
psykopodiaa-podcast
mimmit-sijoittaa
rss-rahapodi
kasvun-kipuja
pomojen-suusta
rss-ainin-sekatoimisto
taloudellinen-mielenrauha
rss-myynti-ei-ole-kirosana
ostan-asuntoja-podcast
rahapuhetta
rss-rahamania
lakicast
rss-lahtijat
rss-startup-ministerio
rss-bisnesta-bebeja
raharesepti
rss-kaupan-tila
rss-seuraava-potilas
rss-paasipodi