Fed Admits It Needs Evidence Q1 Weakness Was Transitory – Ep. 251

Fed Admits It Needs Evidence Q1 Weakness Was Transitory – Ep. 251

Summary: The Fed is now indicating it needs evidence that the Q1 weak economic data is transitory and not a trend. This is interesting for 2 reasons. The Fed's narrative has always been to tout economic growth even in the face of flimsy or no supporting data. Now the Fed is actually admitting there is weakness. The other interesting thing is that, although the Fed continues to claim it is "data dependent", it has been ignoring the economic data ever since the first rate hike. The market puts chances of a June rate hike at almost 100%. Maybe that is because it believes the Fed will raise rates regardless of proof.

* On Wednesday we got the release of the Federal Open Market Committee's minutes
* As usual, the FOMC is indicating that as long as the economy continues to evolve according to their forecast, that it would be appropriate to remove additional accommodations soon
* And, I guess the markets are assuming soon is in about 3 weeks when the Fed meets in June everybody anticipates that the Fed will hike rates again
* Actually raising interest rates all the way back up to 1% - that would be the new floor on rates
* That was the lowest that rates got during the Greenspan era that gave us the housing bubble and ensuing financial crisis
* It's taken a long time even to get up to that insanely low level of interest rates
* But everybody still assumes - I think the probability is near 100% - that the Fed is going to raise rates in June
* But what I thought was interesting about those minutes, and nobody's talking about this
* In the minutes, the Federal Reserve said that they are also looking for proof that the weak economic data from the first quarter was transitory
* They're looking for proof in order to continue to raise rates
* I'm thinking, if the Fed says they need proof that Q1 data was transitory, are they actually going to get that proof by the June meeting?
* If they don't have the proof yet, are they going to have it by June?
* Almost all the economic data that has come out recently, including this week, has been pretty bad
* In fact, the data that we're getting confirms to me that rather than being transitory
* The weakness in the first quarter is likely to continue
* If it's transitory at all it is because we're transitioning into a recession
* So if the Fed is looking for proof that the economic data was transitory, thus far they haven't gotten any
* If they actually need the proof prior to raising rates, they maybe they are not going to raise rates in June
* The market doesn't seem to even give that a possibility
* Maybe it's because the Fed claims to be data dependent
* Yet they've ignored data ever since the first rate hike
* Now they are saying that the data they are depending on is data that is going to provide proof that the first quarter weakness is transitory
* Maybe the markets aren't buying that, they're saying, "We think the Fed's going to raise rates regardless of whether or not there's any proof."
* Even if there is no proof, they are going to pretend that there is
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Jaksot(1081)

Central Banks Wage War Against Low Prices – Ep. 46

Central Banks Wage War Against Low Prices – Ep. 46

* Big action from the Central Banks this week * Bank of Canada lowered rates from 1% to .75% * The ECB announced the launch of first QE program * The Euro plunged against gold * Central Banks' goal is to raise the level of inflation to guard against falling prices * Falling prices accelerate economic activity * Regulations and taxes slow down economies * QE in Europe lets the politicians escape the consequences of regulations and taxes * QE will send European money abroad * Inflation is an obstacle to economic growth Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

23 Tammi 201523min

Gold Rally Continues, Yuan/Dollar Peg Explained – Ep. 45

Gold Rally Continues, Yuan/Dollar Peg Explained – Ep. 45

* Biggest 7-day surge in Gold prices since 2011 * U.S. GDP will be lower than in Canada this year * Canadian gold production will rise in 2015 * Gold is rising against most currencies except the Swiss Franc * The IMF still believes the U.S. economy is recovering * Outlook for gold in Australia is also positive * The Yuan will probably be the next peg to go, allowing it to rise against the dollar * The American workforce is being rewarded for incurring large debt to engage in unproductive careers Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

21 Tammi 201522min

Will China Pull a “Switzerland” on the U.S. Dollar?

Will China Pull a “Switzerland” on the U.S. Dollar?

* Thursday, January 15, will be remembered as the day Switzerland abandoned its peg to the Euro * The Swiss defended their policy to peg to the Euro, but suddenly reversed, limiting their losses * They admitted they were wrong * Although the Swiss stock market went down in their currency, it was up in every other currency * Gold is up against everything except the Swiss franc * The news in the Swiss market will be a tremor compared to the earthquake if the Chinese abandon their peg both to the Hong Kong Dollar and the Yuan * America will win the currency war to the detriment of the American people Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

17 Tammi 201524min

Switzerland Loses Currency War Swiss Win – Ep. 44

Switzerland Loses Currency War Swiss Win – Ep. 44

* The Swiss people have given up the inflation ghost to win the currency war * Media reports negative on the news: "silly decision" * Oil down against the Swiss Franc * Swiss stocks up in U.S. dollars * Wall Street expects Eurozone QE, but without Swiss, QE might be less likely * Gold up against other currencies * Franc surging in value against the dollar * This move may signal economic reform * Unfortunately Janet Yellen is not going to get this memo * Volatility from Swiss move is nothing compared to consequences of a U.S. QE 4 * This move is bearish for the U.S. market * Buckle up, it's going to be a bumpy ride Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

15 Tammi 201517min

Denial Runs Deep From Wall Street To Bitcoin – Ep 43

Denial Runs Deep From Wall Street To Bitcoin – Ep 43

* Dow down 600 points in between Tuesday high and Wednesday low * Stock market and real estate are pillars of the phony recovery * Loose government lending standards encouraging mortgage defaults * Dollar down and gold up on low retail sales numbers * Fed not likely to sit out a U.S. recession, trading support for Wall Street over the dollar * The next QE could be bearish for bonds and the dollar * Demise of the recovery illusion will also hurt stocks * Bitcoins down on more bad news * Price does matter as investors seek value * Irredeemable digital currencies will never be money Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

15 Tammi 201533min

Jobs Up But Earnings and Participation Down – Ep. 42

Jobs Up But Earnings and Participation Down – Ep. 42

* December jobs report up; unemployment down * Average hourly earnings dropped * Labor force participation hits new low, except for older Americans * Fewer young workers supporting the Social Security system * Most credit comprised of student loans and auto loans * Auto delinquencies highest since 2008, indicating a bubble * Obama's plan to make community college free will further inflate costs * Charles Evans calls for more inflation before raising interest rates * Denies relationship between cheap money and bubbles * The term "patience" indicates no timeframe for higher rates * Gold stocks very strong and gold prices continue to rise in face of rising dollar Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

11 Tammi 201521min

Gold Breaks Out, Stocks Break Down – Ep. 41

Gold Breaks Out, Stocks Break Down – Ep. 41

* World markets left the gates weak on first full trading week of the year * Catalysts: Declining oil prices and Greece's potential Eurozone exit * The Euro has gone sideways against the dollar for 9 years * The U.S. stock market will decline until the market believes rate hikes are off the table * U.S. will not experience accelerating growth in 2015 * Evidence shows the home market is not strengthening * Young entrepreneurship at a 20-year low * Falling oil prices are a symptom economy is not expanding Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

6 Tammi 201522min

As The New Year Begins, Will The  Recovery End? – Ep. 40

As The New Year Begins, Will The Recovery End? – Ep. 40

* Falling unemployment trends seem to be over * PMI "unexpectedly" drops to 53.9% * Construction spending "unexpectedly" fell .3% * December ISM fell to 55.5 * Draghi's comments at ECB sparked U.S. Dollar rally despite weak data * Eurozone QE not likely * 2014 was a flat year for gold, despite bad press * Dollar price based on higher interest rate expectations * Price of gold has tripled since 2005 * Gold mining costs rise with inflation * The real bubble is the confidence in central bankers Our Sponsors: * Check out Aeropress and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://aeropress.com * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Boll & Branch: https://boilandbranch.com/SCHIFF * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Tammi 201535min

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