U.S. Inflation Is Bullish for Gold and Bearish for the Dollar – Ep. 293

U.S. Inflation Is Bullish for Gold and Bearish for the Dollar – Ep. 293

Inflation Higher Than Expected
Today we got the hotter than expected news on prices - on inflation. We got the import/export prices. Import prices were supposed to be up 0.5%, which in and of itself is a pretty big jump, but they were up 0.7. Export were also up; (we would want export prices to go up, because that means we are getting more for what we export) they were expected to rise 0,4%, and instead they rose by 0.8. Double the expectation.
Import/Export Index Methodology More Accurate
Year over year, import prices are up 2.7%. As of last month, the year over rise was just 2.1%, so that's a pretty big jump in the year over year gain. Export prices were up 2.9% year over year. Averaging these out, you get 2.8% as the average increase in 1 year of the price of the stuff we import and export. That's a broad based increase - well above the supposed 2% level the Fed is looking for. They are looking for consumer prices, measured by the CPI, but the Import/Export index represents things the consumers consume, and I would think these numbers are going to be more accurate than the CPI because there is less subjectivity in there. I think the methodology is more accurate than the methodology on the CPI. I think soon we're going to see year-over-year increases import and export prices with a 3 handle.
Markets Working Counter-Intuitively
When this news came out, the immediate reaction was to buy the dollar and sell gold. Why? Why is higher inflation bad for gold? The main reason to buy gold is as an inflation hedge. If you think there is going to be more inflation, then you buy gold. Perversely, the way the markets work now, you sell gold if you think there's going to be more inflation, in fact, you buy the currency of the country that is experiencing more inflation, which is counter-intuitive. Inflation by definition, is the currency losing value. If the currency is losing its purchasing power, why would you want to buy more of it? You would want to get rid of it to avoid that loss.
Will Higher Inflation Produce a Tighter Fed?
But the thinking is, if there is more inflation, as measured by these price indexes, that the Federal Reserve is now going to have to fight the inflation, that they are going to be more likely to raise interest rates, to raise them sooner, to raise them more, in the face of higher inflation. So it is the expectation that these higher numbers will produce a tighter Fed - that is what rallies the dollar, That is what hurts gold - the anticipation of higher rates to fight off the inflation.
Fighting Inflation vs. The Bubbles
Reality is that the Fed will ignore the higher inflation numbers and do nothing. Whatever it is going to do with rates, it will do it regardless of these numbers. Ultimately, if the Fed has to make a choice between fighting inflation and unemployment (because the Fed believes in the Phillips Curve trade-off between employment and inflation), the Fed will always choose to fight unemployment. It will prop up the labor market and sacrifice its inflation goal. It is more concerned with maintaining asset bubbles, propping up the U.S. government so it does not have to default on its debt.
Letting Inflation Burn
The reality is, higher inflation is not going to produce a tighter monetary policy. The Fed is going to have to ignore higher inflation, which means the inflation is going to get even worse. It is almost like the Fed has to ignore a fire, and because it ignores the fire, it is just going to get bigger, it's not going going to try to put it out because it is afraid that putting it out is actually worse than letting it burn. If traders understood this, then they would be dumping the dollar and buying gold.
Real Inflation vs. Nominal Inflation
Even if the Fed ultimately raises rates, they're not going to get out in front of the inflation curve. Our Sponsors: * Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Jaksot(1093)

Raised Rate Cut Hopes Lift Markets - Ep 1052

Raised Rate Cut Hopes Lift Markets - Ep 1052

Peter Schiff critiques the Federal Reserve's policies, discusses the housing market crisis, and forecasts gold and cryptocurrency trends in this episode.This episode is sponsored by Hims. Start your free online visit today at https://hims.com/goldIn this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff delves into the critical dynamics shaping today’s financial landscape. He dissects the recent market movements triggered by the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and the implications for gold and silver prices. Schiff critiques the ongoing affordability crisis in housing and healthcare, highlighting the detrimental effects of government spending and inflation. He also explores the current state of the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency market, emphasizing the shifting sentiment as investors reconsider their positions. Listeners can expect a thorough analysis of how these trends intersect with broader economic policies and the enduring battle between capitalism and socialism. Tune in for Schiff's insights on navigating the complex financial terrain ahead.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Market Overview00:55 Gold and Silver Market Analysis03:29 Federal Reserve and Economic Policies10:07 Housing Market and Affordability Crisis21:03 Impact of Potential Fed Chair Change24:19 Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Market29:27 Holiday Spending and Trade Deficits31:53 Economic Growth and Capitalism vs. Socialism32:43 The Real Story of Thanksgiving39:59 Bitcoin and the Crypto Market54:17 Conclusion and Investment AdviceFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#FedRateHike #GoldMarketAnalysis #BitcoinTrendsOur Sponsors:* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

26 Marras 202554min

The Fed's Forever Blowing Bubbles - Ep 1051

The Fed's Forever Blowing Bubbles - Ep 1051

Peter Schiff critiques the bursting crypto bubble, warns of impending market collapses, and discusses the implications of reckless monetary policies.This episode is sponsored by Policygenius. Head to https://policygenius.com/gold to compare free life insurance quotes from top companies and see how much you could save.In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff delves into the current financial landscape, emphasizing the ongoing collapse of the Bitcoin and crypto bubbles, while raising concerns about the potential fallout in other sectors, including AI and housing. He analyzes the precarious state of MicroStrategy and its impact on Bitcoin prices, challenging the validity of its business model. Schiff addresses the Federal Reserve's contradictory stance on inflation and tariffs, criticizing the government's fiscal policies that have led to rampant market bubbles. With insights into the healthcare crisis and IRS controversies, Schiff presents a stark reality of the economic situation, reinforcing his perspective on the unsustainable nature of current financial practices.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:54 The Crypto Bubble and Market Bubbles04:14 AI Bubble and Its Potential07:05 Bitcoin's Decline and Market Reactions12:43 MicroStrategy and Bitcoin Treasury Companies24:09 Debate Challenges and Tokenized Gold35:18 FOMC Meeting Minutes and Job Reports36:50 Labor Market and Inflation Insights37:45 Tariffs and Their Impact on Prices39:14 Quantitative Easing and the Dollar41:04 Healthcare Crisis and Insurance Issues48:43 FOIA Lawsuit Against the IRS53:10 Publicity Stunt and Bank Shutdown01:09:21 Conclusion and Final ThoughtsFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#crypto #inflation #MicroStrategyOur Sponsors:* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

20 Marras 20251h 9min

Crypto Carnage as Gold Eats Bitcoin's Lunch - Ep 1050

Crypto Carnage as Gold Eats Bitcoin's Lunch - Ep 1050

Peter Schiff dissects the crypto market collapse, evaluates gold’s surge in value, and critiques government policies impacting housing affordability.This episode is sponsored by Policygenius. Head to https://policygenius.com/gold to compare free life insurance quotes from top companies and see how much you could save.In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the recent turmoil in the financial markets, highlighting the stark contrasts between precious metals and the declining crypto sector. He discusses the surge in gold and silver prices amidst government actions, the implications of potential government shutdowns, and the risky landscape of crypto investments, particularly Bitcoin's significant drop against gold. Schiff emphasizes the government's detrimental role in housing affordability and the proposed measures that could exacerbate financial instability. As always, he provides keen insights rooted in economic reality, urging listeners to consider the long-term implications of current market trends and policies.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:54 Precious Metals Market Update05:08 Government Shutdown and Its Impact on Gold06:52 Crypto Market Analysis and Predictions10:28 Trump's Influence on Crypto and Economic Implications20:56 Fannie and Freddie: The Trump Trade31:29 Government's Role in Housing Affordability32:08 Impact of Tariffs on Housing Costs32:29 Immigration and Construction Labor Costs34:33 Credit and Mortgage Guarantees37:19 Proposed 50-Year Mortgages40:06 Eliminating FICO Score Minimums43:27 Assumable and Portable Mortgages54:29 Investment Opportunities in Gold and Silver01:01:43 Conclusion and Upcoming PodcastFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#crypto #bitcoin #goldOur Sponsors:* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

13 Marras 20251h 1min

Data Confirms "Hot" US Economy Is Ice Cold - Ep 1049

Data Confirms "Hot" US Economy Is Ice Cold - Ep 1049

Peter Schiff examines the paradox of a hot U.S. economy amid cold realities, discusses cryptocurrency, and critiques political misconceptions and tariffs.This episode is sponsored by NetSuite. Download the free “Demystifying AI” at https://netsuite.com/goldIn this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff delves into the stark contrast between the perceived strength of the U.S. economy and its underlying fragility. Listeners will gain valuable insights as Peter analyzes the gold market, Bitcoin, and economic realities that challenge political narratives. The discussion also touches on the implications of the New York mayoral election, misconceptions about communism, and Trump's contentious tariffs. With a keen focus on the economic policies shaping our lives, this episode is essential for anyone seeking a deeper understanding of today's financial landscape. Join Peter as he cuts through the noise and reveals the truth behind the headlines.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:56 Gold Market Analysis03:24 Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency Insights12:18 Economic Reality vs. Political Claims19:04 New York Mayoral Election and Economic Policies31:13 The Impact of Free Public Transportation32:17 Misconceptions About Communism34:36 Trump's Unconstitutional Tariffs42:37 The Filibuster Debate55:32 Gold and Silver Market InsightsFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#USEconomy #CryptoInsights #NewYorkPoliticsOur Sponsors:* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

8 Marras 202558min

Powell Dashes Hopes for a December Rate Cut - Ep 1048

Powell Dashes Hopes for a December Rate Cut - Ep 1048

Peter Schiff critiques the Federal Reserve's recent rate decisions, analyzes the implications for inflation and interest rates, and discusses gold's pivotal role in today's economy.This episode is sponsored by NetSuite. Download the CFO’s Guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://netsuite.com/goldIn this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the implications of the Federal Reserve's recent decisions, including its latest interest rate cut and the end of quantitative tightening. He unpacks the impact of these policies on inflation, the economy, and the stock market, while emphasizing the persistent threats posed by excessive monetary expansion. Schiff critiques the Fed's narrative of economic strength, arguing that the increasing gold price signals a deeper financial instability. Key discussions include the contrasting fates of gold and Bitcoin, the true state of employment, and the dangers of overvalued tech stocks. This episode is a must-listen for those seeking clarity on the current economic landscape and the potential consequences of the Fed's actions.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:55 Federal Reserve's Recent Actions02:20 Impact on the Economy and Markets03:15 Discussion on Quantitative Tightening06:29 Interest Rates and Inflation17:31 Gold Market Analysis24:41 New Product Announcement at Schiff Gold31:39 Setting Up the Infrastructure31:49 Gold as a Medium of Exchange33:00 Bitcoin vs. Gold37:07 Stock Market and AI Valuations42:44 Tariffs and American Workers47:11 Inflation and the Fed's Policies55:09 Investment Opportunities and Final ThoughtsFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#FederalReserve #InterestRates #GoldMarketAnalysisOur Sponsors:* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

30 Loka 202556min

Gold Successfully Tests $4k Support - Ep 1047

Gold Successfully Tests $4k Support - Ep 1047

Peter Schiff examines gold and silver market volatility, critiques the Fed's misguided policies, and discusses the implications of Trump's influence on the economy.This episode is sponsored by Policygenius. Head to https://policygenius.com/gold to compare free life insurance quotes from top companies and see how much you could save.In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter Schiff delves into the ongoing volatility in the gold and silver markets, analyzing recent corrections and investor sentiment. He discusses the implications of economic indicators and Federal Reserve actions, as well as the contrasting dynamics between Bitcoin and gold. Schiff critiques media portrayals of market trends, emphasizing the persistent skepticism surrounding gold investments. With insights on Newmont's earnings and a critical examination of government spending, Schiff articulates his perspective on the future of precious metals and the broader economic landscape. Listeners can expect a thought-provoking analysis that challenges mainstream narratives and reinforces Schiff's established views on financial prudence and market realities.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:55 Gold and Silver Market Volatility03:40 Gold's Correction and Market Reactions07:47 Investor Sentiment and Media Coverage13:53 Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions20:54 Newmont's Earnings and Market Skepticism27:38 Bitcoin vs. Gold: Market Dynamics29:45 Trump's Ballroom and Crypto Industry Influence34:20 Trump's Ego and the National Debt35:39 Government Shutdowns and Trump's Legacy37:41 Trade Negotiations and Reagan's Legacy41:34 Government Investments and Market Interference48:15 Crypto Collateral and Market Risks55:57 YouTube Shadow Banning and Subscriber Growth01:03:55 Gold and Silver Investment OpportunitiesFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#goldmarket #cryptocurrency #investingstrategiesOur Sponsors:* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

24 Loka 20251h 5min

Crypto Industry & Wall Street Unite Against Gold - Gold Wrap

Crypto Industry & Wall Street Unite Against Gold - Gold Wrap

Join Peter Schiff for a special Tuesday Market Wrap episode of the Schiff Gold Podcast, where he dives into the historic highs and recent volatility in the gold and silver markets. Originally planning to cover two weeks of market activity in a single Friday wrap-up, Schiff decided to address the significant happenings of the past three days immediately. On Monday, gold prices set a new all-time high, nearly touching $4,380, before experiencing a dramatic sell-off. Despite this, gold closed the week robustly above $4,250. Schiff discusses the widespread speculative sentiment from the crypto community and Wall Street, dismissing the notion that the gold bull market is over. Emphasizing the structural strengths and ongoing consolidation phase of gold and silver, Schiff reassures investors of the long-term uptrend. He also criticizes Bitcoin proponents claiming Bitcoin will surpass gold, labeling it as wishful thinking. Schiff highlights the resurgence of gold's appeal over Bitcoin, driven by massive structural changes and global tendencies to shift back to the gold standard. With energy costs falling, gold mining stocks are posed for significant earnings. Schiff underscores the value of using this pullback as a buying opportunity for both new and long-term investors in gold and silver.Our Sponsors:* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

22 Loka 202538min

Jamie Dimon Admits Peter Schiff Was Right - Ep 1046

Jamie Dimon Admits Peter Schiff Was Right - Ep 1046

Peter Schiff analyzes gold's surge, critiques Jamie Dimon's admission on gold's rationality, and discusses the impending dollar crisis.This episode is sponsored by Policygenius. Head to https://policygenius.com/gold to compare free life insurance quotes from top companies and see how much you could save.In this episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff delves into the pressing realities of today's economic landscape, highlighting Jamie Dimon's recent admission regarding gold's significance in investment portfolios. Schiff discusses the meteoric rise of gold and silver, drawing parallels to historical economic shifts reminiscent of the 1970s. He provides critical insights into the dollar's declining status, the implications of global economic changes, and the stark contrast between gold and Bitcoin. As the market dynamics evolve, Schiff emphasizes the urgent need for investors to reconsider their positions, particularly as the risks associated with Bitcoin become increasingly apparent. Tune in for a comprehensive analysis that challenges mainstream narratives and reinforces Schiff's steadfast belief in the enduring value of gold.Chapters:00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks00:55 Gold's Meteoric Rise and Media Attention01:56 Silver's Performance and Investment Advice03:55 Historical Context: 1970s vs. 2020s05:37 The Dollar Standard and Global Economic Shifts07:21 Jamie Dimon's Admission and Rationality of Gold09:56 Gold's Future and Wall Street's Realization20:31 Current Market Update and Urgent Investment Advice22:33 Comparing Gold and Bitcoin23:46 Fed Policies and Historical Perspectives25:05 China's Trade and Economic Position30:53 Bitcoin's Decline and Market Manipulation37:01 Closing Remarks and Upcoming Events34:27 Alan Greenspan's Perspective on Gold35:27 The Case for Investing in Gold Stocks38:53 China's Trade Dynamics and the US Relationship43:52 Bitcoin's Decline and the Rise of Gold01:00:01 Conclusion and Upcoming EventsFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#goldinvestment #bitcoincrash #marketupdateOur Sponsors:* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

16 Loka 20251h

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