Those Expecting Low Inflation Are in for a Surprise – Ep. 314

Those Expecting Low Inflation Are in for a Surprise – Ep. 314

Market Ignoring Economic Realities
All three of three of the U.S. stock market indexes are ringing in the New Year with new record highs. The market was up on the first trading day of the year; up again today. NASDAQ composite is the star, 7065 today up another .84% - a new record high. The same thing with the S&P and the Dow. The Dow is now almost at 25,000; it closed at 24,922. Of course, everybody is ignoring, though, the economic reality.
What Do Oil Price Increases Imply for the Economy?
Look at the price of oil, up again today - 61.77 is the close, up 1.40 - we were up yesterday. This is the highest oil has closed in over 2 years. If we get above 62.75 that would be the highest close since December of 2014. It was all between July and December of 2014 that oil prices collapsed from above $100/barrel to below $40. I think this year we have clear sailing to $80 - $100 oil this year. Nobody is talking about what this implies for the U.S economy. This is a gigantic tax hike for consumers. Doubling the price of oil over a 2-year period is going to have a major impact on the cost of everything.
Watch Commodities Prices
It's not just energy costs. Commodities in general are strong. Gold was up $15 on the first trading day of the year; we were down about $4-5 today, getting back some of the gains, so gold is off to a good start. Some of the gold stocks were very strong yesterday. Across the board, the resource sector is going up. In fact the ironic thing is that we got the release of the FOMC minutes today and as soon as the minutes came out, gold actually sold off, and clawed its way back to down a little bit on the day.
Fed Expectations of Low Inflation
If you look at those minutes, the only concerns that the FOMC minutes expressed about inflation was that it was still too low. They are worried that inflation expectations are still too low, that the public, or investors still don't expect enough inflation, which shows you how clueless the public is. If they don't think there is going to be inflation, they're wrong. Those expectations are totally wrong.
Hitting 2% Inflation Out of the Park
People are ignoring what is going on in the currency markets, the commodities markets, the bond markets. All of these markets are flashing inflation, according to the way you measure it: Consumer prices producer prices, they're all going to be going up, and the Fed, is still worried that they are not going to be going up fast enough, that they're not going to hit their 2% goal. They are going to hit that out of the park. They are going to be looking at 2% in the distant rear view mirror. Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Jaksot(1082)

Hollywood Hypocrisy and Gender Pay Gap Fiction – Ep. 55

Hollywood Hypocrisy and Gender Pay Gap Fiction – Ep. 55

* Patricia Arquette claims that there is a still an unfair gender wage gap in the labor market * If that were true, all employers - male and female - would hire women first, because they are more cost effective employees * But they don't * Women who choose to balance family with career often accept lower-paying positions * Women do not make less money for the same work * They make less money for different work * In Hollywood, youth is an asset for women - for men, not as much. * Male action movie stars can earn more because action movies earn more. * Liberal spin promotes a government "solution" for a free market system that is working Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

24 Helmi 201529min

Fed’s Open Mouth Operations Having Complications – Ep. 54

Fed’s Open Mouth Operations Having Complications – Ep. 54

* Two days of bad economic news this shortened week * The Fed still says the economy is recovering * Recent FOMC minutes maintains pretense they can raise interest rates * FOMC members are worried about raising rates "too soon" * The Fed is worried about how to remove the word "patient" from communications * How confident can the Fed be in the "recovery" if they still fear raising interest rates? * The "recovery" was just a bubble masquerading as a recovery * If we had a real recovery the Fed could have already raised rates * They are now concerned about weakness overseas * They are worried about a strong dollar * They expressed concerns about the risks of lower oil prices * Low inflation causes concerns * The Fed is clearly paying attention to the negative economic news * Empire State Manufacturing down * Home Builder Confidence at 4-month low * Industrial production weak * PPI number declined .8 * Eventually the economic numbers will force the Fed to acknowledge weakness and resume stimulus Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

19 Helmi 201520min

Investor Confidence Sends Stock Indexes to New Highs – Ep. 53

Investor Confidence Sends Stock Indexes to New Highs – Ep. 53

* Friday 13th was not unlucky for Wall Street * S&P 500 traded to an all-time record high * The Dow closed above 18,000 * NASDAQ at almost a 15-year high * Despite overall trend of weak corporate earnings * Weak economic data does not dampen Wall Street's spirits * Central Banks are behind the surge with excess liquidity * Wednesday - Mortgage Applications plunged 9% * Purchases declined 7% following a 2% decline prior week * 10% decline in Mortgage Refinances * Jobless claims up 25,000 from prior week * Biggest back-to-back decline in Retail Sales since October of 2009 * Consumer Confidence is down 2 weeks in a row * Business Inventories rose by just .1% contrary to expectations * Inventory to sales ratio highest since July 2009 * Huge drop in Consumer Sentiment * Jobs number is a lagging indicator * Part-time economy is a double-edged sword Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

14 Helmi 201521min

I’m Living in an Economic Twilight Zone – Ep. 52

I’m Living in an Economic Twilight Zone – Ep. 52

* China announces a record trade surplus * Media reports surplus as bad news for China * Because of the strength of the Yuan, Chinese can buy more imports for less * Chinese consumers purchasing more * Chinese businesses manufacturing more * Contrary to press reports these factors point to a strong economy in China * U.S. has record deficits along with a strong dollar * The short term effect of a strong currency is that trade deficits should go down because imports are cheaper * The fact that our trade deficit continues to rise illustrates underlying economic weakness * Media double standard: China trade surplus is bad but U.S. trade deficit is good * Media reports "low rate of unemployment" among college grads, however: * Record number of college graduates are under employed * Only 44% of employed Americans work 30 hours or more per week * In future, the smarter students will skip low-value degrees in favor of work experience * Shake Shack IPO valuation $1.5 billion on $5 million profits * Grilled Cheese Truck: valued at $100 million on negative revenues * Black is white and white is black: Twilight Zone Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

10 Helmi 201527min

Despite Slowing Economy, Job Growth Speeds Up – Ep. 51

Despite Slowing Economy, Job Growth Speeds Up – Ep. 51

* Monthly non-farm employment number beat expectations * Upward revisions to prior months * Average hourly earnings number jumped by .5 * Immediate reaction in the market was swift * Dollar up; gold down * Unemployment up * Labor force participation down among younger workers * Jobs number inconsistent with other weak economic data * Layoffs are up * Government is way off on "jobs lost" data * Yesterday's trade deficit was the largest increase recorded * If our economy were strong, our workers would be producing and we would not rely on imports * Trade deficit is subtracted from the GDP * Productivity numbers weaker than expected * How many times can the dollar rally on the same news? Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

7 Helmi 201519min

Are Forex Markets Finally Acknowledging the Slowing U.S. Economy?

Are Forex Markets Finally Acknowledging the Slowing U.S. Economy?

* Volatile day in the markets * Largest decline in Personal Spending since September 2009 * Wages and Salaries gain slowest in 7 months * December ISM Manufacturing Index down to 53.5 * December Employment growth at 7-month low * 2.6% GDP number will likely be revised downward * U.S. Factory Orders declined 3.6% in December * Oil prices triggering momentum against the dollar * The FOREX markets are beginning to acknowledge U.S. economic weakness * QE4 will accompany a budget-busting economic stimulus * S&P was the only agency penalized by the government for rating sub-prime mortgage AAA * S&P is actually being penalized for downgrading U.S. government debt Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Helmi 201530min

A Dove in Hawk’s Clothing – Ep. 49

A Dove in Hawk’s Clothing – Ep. 49

* Fed's official statement released yesterday * Received by the market as hawkish, Fed is still reiterates "patience" * The statement noted unguarded optimism about the U.S. Economy * Fed ignored unstable markets, Europe, oil prices and strength of the dollar * Response: the market sold off and the dollar rallied * Gold declined on Fed's expectations * The Fed's underlying goal may be to talk the dollar up and talk the markets down * Strong dollar buys time * Continued "patience" indicates Fed's true agenda Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

29 Tammi 201517min

Weak Earnings and Bad Economic Data Pummel Stocks – Ep. 48

Weak Earnings and Bad Economic Data Pummel Stocks – Ep. 48

* Wall Street spared blizzard only to be buried in bad earnings and bad economic news * December durable goods down 3.4%; expected to come in at +.7 * Consumer confidence up to 102.9; contrarian indicator * Last time consumers were this confident was in the middle of 2007 * Number will collapse when reality has a violent confrontation with perception * P&G earnings down 31% * Caterpillar warned * Microsoft stock down 10% today * UPS announced they overestimated holiday sales * Businesses geared up for a recovery in late 2013 that was not going to happen * Layoffs coming in 2015 * This may give the Fed an excuse to delay rate increase * How can a strong dollar be good for America but a weak euro be good for Europe? Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

28 Tammi 201535min

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