Trump Is No Reagan & Powell Is No Volcker – Ep. 331

* Happy 4th of July to everyone * Unfortunately, we have given up our independence to government tyranny * I will be back on the radio again - I'll be on the Alex Jones Show every first and third Friday of every month when the Non-Farm Payroll numbers come out * I will be doing tomorrow's show - the second hour of the show * The Non-Farm Payroll Report came out early this week because of the 4th of July holiday * The consensus forecast of 230,000 jobs was close to the actual number 223,000 * The unemployment rate of 5.5% last month was expected to come in at 5$% - actually came in at 5.3%, the lowest unemployment rate in 7 years * Great news, right? Not great news * The devil is in the details * The Labor Force Participation Rate - 62.9 last month - plunged down to 62.6% * This is the lowest rate since 1977 * 432,000 people dropped out of the labor force in June - twice the number of people who got jobs in June * Once again, these new jobs are low-paying service sector jobs * During the Obama "recovery" we have lost 1.4 million manufacturing jobs and gained 1.4 million wait staff and bartender jobs * According to the Household Survey 640,000 Americans left the labor force in June * Now we have a record 93.6 million Americans no longer in the labor force * The Household Survey reports 349,000 jobs were lost during the month * The only net gain - 161,000 part time jobs - represent a net loss * The Household Survey shows that we lost good jobs * When asked about the Labor Force Participation Rate number, Secretary of Labor Perez commented, "One month does not a trend make." * This trend has been going down every month of every year that President Obama has been in office * Janet Yellen announced that the Fed would not start raising rates without "further improvement in the labor market" * She specifically cited the Labor Force Participation Rate and proliferation of part-time jobs as troubling trends * We are now further from that goal * The demographic leaving the labor force are young people who cannot find jobs * Average Hourly Earnings, to increase .2, actually came in flat, at zero * Last month's .3 increase was revised down to .2, failing to beat the estimate * Weekly Jobless Claims expected to come in at 270,000, actually came in at 281,000 and I think this number is going to go higher * There have been fewer hires and fewer fires than expected because the estimates were based on the Birth/Death model, that is proving inaccurate * Factory Orders are down for 9 of the last 10 months - this month we were looking for -.3% and we got -1% * April was originally reported as -.4 but was revised down to -.7 * Year over year Factory Orders are down 6.3% (adjusted) * The only time we have seen numbers this weak is during a recession * The economy is in worse shape now that when QE3 was launched * Yet the markets did not react to these bad numbers * They still cling to the narrative that the Fed is going to raise rates because the U.S. economy is in good shape * Article on Motley Fool refers to me as someone who was "right for the wrong reason" * The misquoted me on my prediction on (mortgage)interest rates going up * After I made that statement, interest rates did go up for 2 years - they did not go down until after the bubble burst * The Fed raised interest rates from 1% to 5-1/2 percent * This quote was taken out of context - read my 2007 book, "Crash Proof" * There are dozens of articles about the real estate bubble 2004-2007 * The record shows that I was right for all the right reasons * I did think the dollar would go down after the housing bubble burst, Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

3 Heinä 201522min

* One more time President Obama seeks to buy Democratic votes with a free lunch by appealing to workers * Promising more overtime pay, to go into effect in 2016 * Raises the threshold for overtime pay requirements * Workers who earn salaries of $50,000 or less must be paid overtime for hours worked over 40 hours per week * This prevents workers who put in extra hours on their own time to try to advance * This could cause employers to reduce salaries to factor in overtime * It will be harder for employers to change existing work agreements * This will adversely affect workers on flexible schedules, such as those who work at home in 2016 * Employers will have to seek more control over workers' schedules * New law will disproportionately hurt women, the very constituency Democrats claim to protect * Those who have variable workloads throughout the year will be adversely affected * This law eliminates choice and increases costs, but it's great politics * Followup on Puerto Rico: Minimum Wage * Puerto Rico is an example of the adverse effects of a minimum wage law that has devastated an economy * Puerto Rico's has more than 20% unemployment * Puerto Rico labor force participation rate is 42-43% * The minimum wage has priced out more than half of the labor force * There is no entry level work in Puerto Rico * If the minimum wage is so good, why does it not work in Puerto Rico? * Puerto Rico is a real-life case study on the adverse effects of minimum wage laws * Puerto Rico's only advantage is its tax law for incoming businesses which will increase demand for labor * Recent comments on my last podcast questioned my support for Puerto Rico * I never advised buying Puerto Rican debt - I knew it was a problem * It makes sense to move to Puerto Rico to take advantage of the new tax laws Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

1 Heinä 201520min

* Global stock markets got beaten up overnight and the carnage continued here in the U.S. * Dow Jones down 350 points by closing bell - biggest point loss of the year * NASDAQ down 122 points * Possible Grexit sparked sell off in FOREX markets * Banks in Greece closing, sending masses to the ATM machines * Euro ended up closing near the highs of the day - nearly to $113 * The dollar was weak all day against the Yen and against the Swiss Franc * There was no safe haven move into the dollar - gold up * The dollar lost considerable ground against the euro * Another confirmation that the dollar's rally is over * My newsletter released today does a good job comparing the U.S. vs global markets * The U.S. did well against the international market from 1996 to 2000 * In 2008 the U.S markets went sideways and the markets I recommend skyrocketed * We have been in a period similar to '96 - 2000 and now we are about to see returns even greater than the 2008 gains in our markets * Regardless of the direction that Greece goes in this weekend's referendum, the dollar is going down against the euro * Puerto Rican governor finally admitted the obvious - repaying their debt is impossible * Puerto Rican debt is a fraction of the U.S. national debt * If it is mathematically impossible for Puerto Rico to pay their debt, why does anyone think the U.S. will be able to eventually pay off its debt? * The only way we can pretend to pay our debt is for the Fed to do it for us by creating inflation * This is yet another reason why the Fed is not going to raise rates in September * We continue to get recession-like economic data, despite the fact that the Fed is still optimistic * The Federal Reserve is looking for an excuse to not raise interest rates * Maybe the situation in Greece will provide that excuse * Maybe it will be the volatility in China * "External problems" are providing an excuse to not raise rates * It is important to point out that Puerto Rico would not be experiencing such insurmountable debt if it were not for U.S. policy. * Puerto Rican debt has seemed attractive with its high yield and triple-tax-exempt status * Zero interest rates from the Fed, on top of high yields, have caused the debt to seem safe, even though mathematically it cannot be paid * People may begin to wake up when they realize what's going on in Puerto Rico and that may become an even bigger problem than Greece Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

30 Kesä 201526min

[fullwidth background_color="" background_image="" background_parallax="none" parallax_speed="0.3" enable_mobile="no" background_repeat="no-repeat" background_position="left top" video_url="" video_aspect_ratio="16:9" video_webm="" video_mp4="" video_ogv="" video_preview_image="" overlay_color="" overlay_opacity="0.5" video_mute="yes" video_loop="yes" fade="no" border_size="0px" border_color="" border_style="" padding_top="20" padding_bottom="20" padding_left="0" padding_right="0" hundred_percent="no" equal_height_columns="no" hide_on_mobile="no" menu_anchor="" class="" id=""] [one_full last="yes" spacing="yes" center_content="no" hide_on_mobile="no" background_color="" background_image="" background_repeat="no-repeat" background_position="left top" border_size="0px" border_color="" border_style="" padding="" margin_top="" margin_bottom="" animation_type="" animation_direction="" animation_speed="0.1" class="" id=""] [fusion_text] In reviewing my Wikipedia page, I noticed some information that is either wrong or narrowly slanted to promote a negative impression of me. We've tried to correct the issue, but Wikipedia makes it very difficult for anyone directly connected to the person or subject of the page to make changes, claiming "Conflict of Interest". This opens the door, however, for those who have a good grasp of editing Wikipedia but who have a decided "left" slant to claim the substance and the direction of the information. Once it's out there, it is very difficult to fix. Wikipedia wants editors to be unrelated to the subject to make contributions. Below are a few things that should be added to the page. Please feel free to make these additions as you would like. Please note that changes need to be discussed in the "Talk" page, first. Here are Ten Simple Rules for Editing Wikipedia. [/fusion_text][/one_full][one_full] [title size="1" content_align="left" style_type="" sep_color="" class="" id=""]On Minimum Wage[/title][fusion_text] Eliminate the minimum wage so teenagers and other low-skill workers can get jobs, and acquire the on-the-job training necessary to earn higher wages in the future. It should not be illegal for people who lack skills to accept employment. The minimum wage punishes workers by legally preventing them from offer their services below a specified legal minimum. If they do not have the skills to justify that minimum, it is illegal for them to work, even if they can offer some value to employers, just not enough to cover the minimum wage mandated by government. So instead of entry level jobs, that will lead to higher skills and wages in the future, many individuals are rendered legally unemployable. People have a right to accept any job that they personally prefer to unemployment. Government should not substitute its judgement for the judgment of workers.[/fusion_text][/one_full] [title size="1" content_align="left" style_type="" sep_color="" class="" id=""]The Housing Market[/title][fusion_text]The government should stay out of housing completely. Abolish agencies that loan money or guarantee mortgages etc. no FHA, Fannie, Freddie. No Department of Housing and Urban Development. There should be a free market in housing. What I actually said on the home mortgage deduction was that, absent the repeal of the entire income tax, we should have a flat rate tax with no deductions including home mortgage, but that would include a much lower rate, so that the removal of the home mortgage deduction did not result in higher taxes. It just eliminates the government- created incentive to buy verses rent.[/fusion_text] Peter Schiff Says The Real Financial C... Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Kesä 201521min

* It looks like there is going to be some kind of deal to avoid the "Grexit" * Greek's exit would be great for Europe, but it would not be politically attractive for either side * As long as Greece stays in the Eurozone, the Greek government can continue to blame Germany or Brussels for their problems * So-called austerity will continue without any haircut to the debt * The same is true for cuts to government spending * The Greek government may increase taxes and/or adjust the retirement age for pension, but no government spending cuts are on the table * Tax increases will provide more incentive for tax evasion or avoidance by leaving the country * All talks are re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic - extend and pretend * The markets are higher - the euro down big * The market is anticipating more cheap money, which would be threatened by a Grexit * In an ideal world, if Greece were to leave the Eurozone and set themselves up as a bastion of free market capitalism, then they could come back strong * Given the electorate, this move is unlikely * Socialism only works in Greece as long as they have another country's money * The sell-off in gold based on the Fed's dovish statements last week * The Fed will only raise interest rates nominally in order to keep the market from balance sheet expansion stimulus into its calculations * Good news from housing numbers - a surge in the Northeast * Mortgage rates have been rising, although still low. Some buyers are worried about higher rates * Higher rates, however would price buyers out of the market * Monday Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in at -.17, continuing a downtrend consistent with a recession * May Durable Goods down 1.8% three times lower than expectations * X transportation met recently reduced expectations * Durable goods has missed for 5 out of the last 7 moths * Chicago PMI Manufacturing weaker than expected decrease to 53.4 - now at the lowest level since October 2013 * Manufacturing and production data sis weak - housing numbers are getting a boost from interest rate expectations * Home ownership rate continues to fall * Rents are rising Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

23 Kesä 201513min

* Today was the expected day for expected rate hikes, indicating economic "lift-off" * The June rate hike is off the table and everyone is focusing attention on September * The prepared remarks are just a smokescreen to maintain the pretense that the economy can withstand a rate hike * The Q&A session after the the prepared remarks were more revealing * Janet Yellen ducked the question of why people who recommend postponing the rate hike to 2016 are wrong * Yellen stated that the "dots" used to forecast rates are based on mere projections * The FOMC is always too optimistic about the economy, so if they are wrong again, the dots are meaningless * Yellen tacitly admits she is hiding behind the data, stating that even if rates to rise, it will be a nominal amount * Yellen's response to CNBC's Steve Liesman question regarding what labor milestone would justify a rate hike was especially telling * She said she needs to see further improvement in the Labor Market before she begins to raise rates * How much improvement does Yellen expect in the labor market over the next three months? * There is a good chance that the labor market will not be as strong in the next three months * She is letting the cat out of the bag; saying that rate hike is not likely in September, either * Yellen questioned the "obsession" about when rate hikes start because the first rate hike will not necessarily indicate normalization * She is indicating that a rate hike may be symbolic * The highly stimulative rate of zero to .25 is only necessary when trying to sustain a bubble * In response to a question about the Federal Reserve under Greenspan, Yellen indicated that it was a mistake for him to raise rates slowly and methodically * I was vocal Greenspan's decisions at that time, arguing that his actions were creating the real estate bubble * Yellen is now moving interest rates even more slowly over a period of 7 years * I may not be the only person who noticed how dovish Yellen's statements are * The knee-jerk reaction on the Fed's statement was to buy the dollar, but quickly turned into a selloff, and it intensified during the Q&A session * The dollar was on the lows of the day as it gets closer to the time rates were expected to raise * My video blogs are always available on schiffradio.com and on YouTube Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

18 Kesä 201519min

* Dow under pressure on the back of EU talks with Greece * There is a lot of room for the market to decline pending the Fed's announcements * The consensus is that rates will hike September or later * If Fed does not rates in September, Election year next year might also put off rate hikes * Bloomberg article quotes B of A hinting that additional stimulus would further damage the economy * B of A admits this risk has been getting the least amount of attention * Empire State Manufacturing Index missed 5.9 forecast - came in at -1.98 * May Industrial Production expected +.2 - came in at -.2 * Capacity Utilization dropped 78.3 to 78.1 * Manufacturing down .2 * Industrial Production has been negative for 4 of the last 6 months * Currency markets still believe Fed will raise rates * Consumer spending was up in May because of rise in gas prices * Weekly Jobless claims saw a slight uptick - exceeded forecast * Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index continues to decline * Listener's Questions, Peter's Answers to resume on this podcast * Submit your questions on schiffradio.com Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

15 Kesä 201520min

* Once again, a week of worse than expected economic data punctuated by another better than expected non-farm payroll report from the government * ADP private sector payroll report was slightly below estimates * 5,000 manufacturing jobs lost - 3rd consecutive monthly decline * Unemployment rate dropped * Labor participation rate up to 62.9 - .2% above lowest point * Large sector of labor force still comprised of older workers * Teens, twenties and thirties are at all-time lows * Older Americans want part-time jobs, so increase of part-time jobs contribute to increase in all jobs * Given the strong government jobs number, the media is discounting all the weak data, including GDP, productivity, consumer spending and industrial production * The jobs we're creating do not reflect economic strength * The weekly unemployment numbers are hovering at 42-year lows * Does anyone believe that this is the strongest economy in 42 years? * The hiring numbers are suspect to begin with because of the government's assumptions * The Trade Deficit dropped not because our exports surged, but because out imports plunged * Our economy is too weak to support a greater number of imports * A closer look at the data behind the government jobs number actually supports the rest of the weak economic data * Personal Income and Spending on the month missed estimates * May Manufacturing PMI dropped slightly * April Factory Orders fell by more than expected * Year over year, orders are down 6.4% * 6th consecutive month that factory orders have been down year over year * This has only happened in America during a recession * Mortgage applications fell sharply on the week - 7.6% decline, led by a 12% decline in re-fi's * May Services PMI fell to 56.2 - lowest level since January * ISM Non-Manufacturing Index dropped to 55.7 - the lowest level of the year * The revision to Q1 Productivity - 3.1% decline * We also had a decline in 2014 Q4 * Corporate profits plunged 5.9% in Q1 * Unit Labor Costs surged by 6.7% - this does not represent wages * All this data predicts future layoffs * The Fed knows this, so they are reluctant to raise rates * The Bloomberg Weekly Consumer Comfort Index fell to 42.5 the 8th consecutive decline - the first time in its 30 - year history * The Dow continued to decline on the jobs report * NASDAQ still hanging in * Margin debt is at a record high * The dollar was stronger on the week * The euro finished positive * By next year European inflation will force the Bundesbank to retreat from QE * Gold was down on the week, as euro strength signals QE less likely in Europe * Expectations of rising interest rates have been suppressing gold, but when reality rears its ugly head, the sellers will be gone and the buyers will be out in full force Our Sponsors: * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

6 Kesä 201530min