The Worse Things Get, the Less Investors Notice – Ep. 337
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast15 Maalis 2018

The Worse Things Get, the Less Investors Notice – Ep. 337

Retail Sales Down Three Months in a Row
I've got so much to talk about today, it's hard to even figure out where to begin. So I'll start with some of the economic data that came out today, in particular, the February Retail Sales number. Remember last month we had a bad number, -.3, the second month in a row we had a decline in retail sales. The expectation was for a big rebound in February, +.4. Now, I suppose the good news, if you are looking for retail sales to pick up is that they revised the January number upward from -.3 to -.1. Still a drop, but not quite as big. But instead of getting a rebound, we got another drop! We got another .1% decline in February. That's a trifecta. Three months in a row of falling retail sales. That hasn't happened in 6 years. This is pretty rare.
Great Jobs, Lousy Sales
Why is this happening? Remember on Friday, we got this "beautiful", too-good-to-be-true, just what the doctor ordered jobs report that said about a million people got jobs. Why didn't any of those million people take their paychecks and spend them at a retailer? Trump is talking about all the great jobs and all the raises that people are getting and all the tax cuts, why are retail sales down for 3 months in a row?
Spike in Inventory Numbers
In fact, we also got some inventory numbers that came out that spiked up because of an 18-month slump in sales. So inventories are building because nobody is buying what's on the shelf. Well, that doesn't make sense if you believe the economy is great and we've got all these jobs. But if you're like me and you've been very skeptical of the economy being good, this is a validation, because Americans are broke.
Borrowing at Record Highs
This is despite the fact that borrowing is at a record high. Consumers are borrowing a lot of money, yet they're not spending it on retailers, what are they doing with the borrowed money? The government is borrowing a lot of money, we're running these huge deficits, yet it is not even affecting retail sales. That is really the goal, they want people to go out and shop, and it's not happening.
Atlanta Fed Again Lowers Q1 GDP Estimate
After the retail sales numbers came out, we got the Atlanta Fed updating their forecast for Q1 GDP. Remember, this is the forecast that was at 5.4% about 5 or 6 weeks ago. Of course, you remember on my podcast, as soon as that came out, I said, "This is crazy. There's no way we're going to be anywhere near that. They will be doing this limbo for weeks and months and they're going to be lowering the bar". On Friday, I reported on my podcast that they has lowered the bar to 2.5%, the lowest forecast since they started forecasting Q1 for 2018. And what I said on Friday was, "They aren't done going lower. there's room for this bar to go down". I said I thought that the GDP for Q1 would be under 2%.
Goldman Sachs Also Lowers Q1 GDP Forecast to 1.9%
Today, after these retail sales numbers, the Atlanta Fed went down to 1.9%. That is a decline of 65% in their forecast from 5 or 6 weeks ago. It's not just the Atlanta Fed. Goldman Sachs is now at 1.9%. And you know what? This is probably not the low water mark. I think there is at least a 50-50 shot that we end up with a zero handle on Q1 GDP.
Borrowing Q2 GDP Growth and Shoving it into Q1
Given how weak the data has been coming in, especially the big trade deficits. The only reason we might end with a 1 handle and not a zero handle is these rising inventories. In the short run, they give a boost to the GDP, but if inventories are rising because nobody is spending, what does that mean? That means that businesses are going to allow the inventories to wind down, they're not going to keep stocking up. So what we're doing is we're borrowing GDP growth from Q2 and we're shoving it into Q1. Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Jaksot(1085)

Taper Already Priced In. Now What? – Ep 734

Taper Already Priced In. Now What? – Ep 734

* Less dovish is not hawkish. * Mother of all bear markets in bonds may have just begun. * Republicans only care about deficits and spending when Democrats are in charge. * Plans for minting $1 trillion platinum coin would officially make the U.S. a banana republic. * 
Increase in home inventory could lead to decrease in home prices. * Standard of living will drop for American service workers as their pay decreases and the prices of products they buy increase. * Bitcoin can’t be digital gold if Bitcoin trades the opposite of gold. * Buying Bitcoin is gambling, not investing, and governments regulate gambling. Go to https://shopify.com/gold for a FREE fourteen-day trial and get full access to Shopify’s entire suite of features. Thanks https://avast.com! INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

25 Syys 20211h 7min

The Fed That Cried Taper – Ep 733

The Fed That Cried Taper – Ep 733

* Fed says the economy is great, but they will maintain the emergency policies they put in place when the economy was terrible. * Fed will always choose to fight unemployment over #inflation. * Fed turns blind eye to inflation because the alternative is a complete economic implosion. * Fed’s policies disproportionately hurt African Americans. * Republicans only care about the debt ceiling when they can use it as a political weapon. * Jerome Powell dismisses concerns over #Evergrande and excess corporate leverage. * Gold will explode and the dollar will implode when markets start to realize the #Fed keeps crying wolf. * Gold went up with safe havens while Bitcoin fell with risk assets. Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through September 30, 2021. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

23 Syys 202145min

Paying More, but Buying Less – Ep 732

Paying More, but Buying Less – Ep 732

* China won’t let Evergrande be the next Lehman Brothers. * Fed took us 1 step forward and 100 steps back. * Higher retail sales doesn’t mean consumers are buying more. * Americans are least likely to buy a new car since 1974. * Sweden sets successful example for dealing with Covid. * America is worse off for invading Iraq. Go to https://Bambee.com/gold to schedule your FREE HR audit. For a limited time, get 40% off a Calm Premium subscription at https://Calm.com/gold INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

18 Syys 202154min

When There’s Too Much Money, There’s Never Enough Stuff – Ep 731

When There’s Too Much Money, There’s Never Enough Stuff – Ep 731

* Take the CPI numbers with a grain of salt. * The CPI will catch up to the PPI. * Fed’s new definition of transitory means a permanent reduction in standard of living. * The problem isn’t a shortage of stuff, it’s an excess of money. * Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. * Consumers are expecting higher prices. * Gold stocks mark potential turning point. * Inflation will pay for government spending, middle class will pay for inflation. * Hedge funds buy preferential tax treatment from politicians. Thanks Raycon! Go To https://buyraycon.com/gold for 15% off your entire Raycon order. Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you’re instantly approved. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

15 Syys 202157min

Government Is Consistent; It Always Lies – Ep 730

Government Is Consistent; It Always Lies – Ep 730

* Producer Price Index numbers come in higher than expected for 9th month in a row. * Inflation trends show no sign of being transitory. * When you properly define inflation, you know exactly who’s causing it. * Bitcoin whales want the minnow’s cash. * There are more job openings than unemployed people. * Left shows its true colors after hate crime against Larry Elder. * 
Media buries stories of racist Democrats. * The government took away our freedom so the terrorists wouldn’t have to. * Tax havens keep a lid on taxes everywhere else. Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://Indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through September 30, 2021. Become a Firstleaf member and get 6 bottles of wine for $29.95 and free shipping https://TryFirstLeaf.com/GOLD INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

11 Syys 20211h 6min

Let’s Replace Labor Day With Entrepreneur Day – Ep 729

Let’s Replace Labor Day With Entrepreneur Day – Ep 729

* Grover Cleveland was really a libertarian and one of our greatest presidents. * The populist movement lead to Labor Day and ultimately in 1913 to the The Federal Income tax, The Federal Reserve, and the popular election of U.S. Senators. * The Woodrow Wilson presidency proved to be a disaster for America. * Washington incumbents have rigged the system. * Workers have benefited from entrepreneurs, despite the drag of labor unions. * Henry Ford’s risk taking resulted in higher wages for his workers and cheaper cars for his customers. * Business owners are in the crosshairs of the government. Get an extra 3 months Free on a one year package: https://expressvpn.com/gold INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

6 Syys 202159min

Summer Data Swoon Puts Fall Taper in Doubt – Ep 728

Summer Data Swoon Puts Fall Taper in Doubt – Ep 728

* Jobs numbers disappoint expectations, but Biden brags. * Inflation expectations highest since just before 2008 financial crisis. * AOC pressures Biden to nominate a more woke Fed chair. * Fed causing a lack of savings, which pushes up asset prices and makes the rich richer. * Gold prices calling Fed’s bluff on tightening. * If Bitcoin is better than gold, Ethereum must be better than Bitcoin. * Markets not sure if bad news is good news or if bad news is bad news. Get your new wireless plan for just $15 a month. https://mintmobile.com/gold INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

4 Syys 20211h 2min

Tapering the Taper Talk – Ep 727

Tapering the Taper Talk – Ep 727

* Powell offers no clues on taper timetable. * Powell vows to keep interest rates low until QE is finished. * Powel blames price increases on exploding demand and lack of supply. * Powel blames inflation on the public’s expectations. * Fed’s only goal is to delay the inevitable crisis as long as possible. * Invest in gold stocks before they recover ground they never should have lost. * Afghanistan proved to the world that the US is no longer a military or economic super power. * America’s biggest export may soon be our used cars. For a limited time, get 40% off a Calm Premium subscription at https://calm.com/gold INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

28 Elo 202154min

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