FOMC Is Far More Dovish Than the Minutes Imply – Ep. 355

FOMC Is Far More Dovish Than the Minutes Imply – Ep. 355

Markets Rallied on Fed Minutes Interpreted as Dovish
Earlier today we got the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes and before the minutes came out (they come out at 2pm Eastern Time). Prior to the release, all the stock markets were down; the Dow was down maybe about 150 points or so, and when the minutes came out, we got a rally, and the Dow closed up about 50 points. So, a 200-point rally on the minutes, and the reason the minutes acted as a catalyst for the rally is that they were interpreted to be a bit more dovish than expected.
The Fed's Symmetrical Inflation Target
To me, the minutes were as expected; I had already been talking about the Fed's view that inflation can go above 2%. That they were willing to allow for some kind of "symmetrical" inflation. The symmetry in this case meaning, we were below 2% for a long time and so now we can be above 2%. I guess for some reason the markets focused in on that.
Specifically, the minutes read that
"A temporary period of inflation modestly above 2 percent would be consistent with the Committee's symmetric inflation objective and could be helpful in anchoring longer-run inflation expectations at a level consistent with that objective."
What does "Modest" Mean?
Now, I don't know why allowing inflation to be higher than 2% is somehow helpful toward achieving their 2% objective. To me, It would be more helpful if they just kept it at 2%, if indeed that was their real objective. But, even if you look at the language that they use, they don't really define what symmetrical could mean. They talk about inflation being "modestly" above 2%: What is "modestly"? Is is 2.1%? What about 2.5%? Is .5% "modest"? They don't really define what "modest" is. I have a feeling, again, that there's never going to be a definition, that it is going to be an ever-moving goal post. Even 3% could be "modest". "Hey, it's only 1%, right that's "modest", right?
Fed Is Impotent When It Comes to Inflation
But on a percentage basis, you wouldn't consider 3% modest. You're above 2% by 50%. 50% is not a modest percentage, but they could say 1% is a modest percentage. Who knows? I think the Fed is going to be looking for every excuse not to raise interest rates aggressively, no matter how high inflation gets. Of course, they're not going to be that transparent. The last thing they would want to do is to let the markets know that they are that impotent when it comes to inflation. Our Sponsors: * Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com * Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD * Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.com Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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· Corrupt media deliberately distorts the truth and lies to the Australian people in order to advance a political agenda that is detrimental to the living standards and freedoms of every Australian.Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffOur Sponsors:* Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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· Strong week for the stock market and gold stocks.· ECB’s inflation goals were asinine.· The Fed will soon break its money losing record.· Debt is going to spiral out of control.· Big money is leaving crypto.· Markets don’t get that inflation isn’t coming down.Thanks Headspace. Try it free for 30 days at https://headspace.com/gold30dayThanks ClearComp. Book a demo at https://clearcomp.comJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffOur Sponsors:* Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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· The inflation genie is impossible to put back in the bottle.· CPI and PPI are lagging for a number of reasons.· Beaten down stocks of 2022 enjoyed a short-lived dead cat bounce in 2023.· Consumer spending in January surged after a record decline in tax revenue.· The PCE is the most inaccurate way to measure inflation and it’s no coincidence that it’s also the Fed’s favorite way.· The progress the Fed claimed to have made against inflation is already lost.· The inverted yield curve is now even more inverted.Visit https://indeed.com/peter to start hiring now.Cut your wireless bill to $15 a month at https://mintmobile.com/goldJoin my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://schiffradio.com/premium to become a member.Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/investRATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/newsBuy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrashFollow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiffFollow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiffOur Sponsors:* Check out FRE and use my code LISTEN20 for a great deal: https://frepouch.com* Check out Infinite Epigenetics: https://infiniteepigenetics.com/GOLD* Check out Justin Wine and use my code SCHIFF20 for a great deal: https://www.justinwine.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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15 Helmi 202337min

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