James Wharton on Reform's Surge and Starmer's Survival

Sixty episodes ago, James Wharton came on the show with a Labour government struggling to find its sea legs. 15 months later, Keir Starmer is fighting for his job.

So we brought James back. Lord Wharton of Yarm — former Conservative MP for Stockton South, the kind of Red Wall seat Reform now eats for breakfast.

What we got into:

• Why Starmer probably survives the week. The would-be regicides aren't coordinated, aren't coalescing, and the PM has called their bluff. The catch: being a process-driven lawyer who decides he wants to stay is a survival strategy until it isn't.
• The Streeting moment that wasn't. Reports that the Health Secretary tried to see Starmer one-on-one after cabinet, and was told to wait. Why that matters more than it sounds.
• The Burnham brand puzzle. Why does the press keep calling the Mayor of Greater Manchester the saviour the Labour Party's been waiting for, when the by-election ground nearest his door just went Green? James and Andrew both served alongside him. Both have thoughts.
• Reform's ceiling problem. 1,453 councillors gained, 14 councils taken, breakthroughs in Scotland and Wales — and vote share still down from last year's locals. James on why this might be peak Reform, not the launchpad it looks like.
• The non-aggression pact question. Should the Tories cut a deal with Reform? James's answer is emphatic, and Andrew brings in the Canadian comparison — what actually had to happen before Reform and the PCs merged in 2003.
• The Carney contrast. James's best line of the episode: Carney is pulling off the trick Starmer was elected to do.

Also discussed: why Hackney's transgender-sanctuary-and-Palestine-twinning agenda doesn't speed up the bin collection, why Labour quietly cooled on votes at 16 once 16-year-olds started voting Green, and the evening with Liz Truss we both attended the night before recording.

Five-party politics, no majorities anywhere, and a Prime Minister whose own MPs can't decide whether to push him or just let him quietly tip over.