Israel Today: Ongoing War Report - Update from 2026-05-12 at 21:02

HEADLINES
Iran regains most missile sites near Hormuz
Hezbollah seeks Beirut occupation to pressure Lebanon
CBO pegs Golden Dome at 1.2T

The time is now 9:01 PM in New York, I'm Noa Levi and this is the latest Israel Today: Ongoing War Report.

In Direct Israel-Iran Clashes, US officials say Iran has regained access to a majority of its missile launch sites, including about 30 active sites along the Strait of Hormuz that could threaten naval traffic. The assessment also states Iran can still use stockpiled missiles at non-operational sites by launching them with mobile launchers, with roughly 70 percent of its mobile launcher inventory available. Intelligence agencies indicate about 90 percent of underground missile facilities are at least partially operational, and Iran’s current missile stockpile sits around 70 percent of its prewar level. Separately, reports have cited evidence that Iran retains thousands of short- and medium-range missiles and can reactivate launchers, even as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has described Iran’s arsenal as depleted and decimated.

In Regional Impacts, South Korea is weighing a phased contribution to efforts to ensure safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling steps short of full military participation. Seoul would participate as a responsible member of the international community and would review ways to contribute in a phased manner, including political support, personnel, information-sharing, and possibly the provision of military assets, with decisions proceeding through domestic legal channels. Meanwhile Vietnam’s state oil trading arm has urged the US Navy to allow a tanker laden with Iraqi crude to sail through the blockade to supply a Vietnamese refinery. The Maltese-flagged Agio Fanourios I carried about 2 million barrels and briefly turned back after being redirected during ongoing enforcement of the blockade; it remains unclear whether it will be permitted to proceed. The blockade has expanded to contraband cargoes, though other Gulf oil exports may sail freely.

In the Conflict with Iran and its Regional Proxies, Hezbollah is planning to occupy Beirut to pressure the Lebanese state to concede, according to security sources. Hezbollah’s leadership is said to believe Israel intends to divide Lebanon and cede large portions of territory, a scenario that increases pressure on Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem. In parallel, Northern Command commanders have presented progress in dismantling terrorist infrastructure in dozens of southern Lebanese villages, and Israeli estimates suggest rising pressure on Qassem as fighting grows. The defense establishment is monitoring the situation as Beirut remains a focal point of this tension.

In US Policy Concerning Israel, the Congressional Budget Office estimates the Golden Dome missile defense shield would cost about $1.2 trillion to develop, deploy, and operate over 20 years, a figure far higher than the Pentagon’s estimate of about $185 billion. Acquisition costs alone would exceed $1 trillion, with the space-based interceptor layer and a constellation of about 7,800 satellites accounting for roughly 70 percent of those costs. The system would span the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii, and would be designed to deter attacks from regional adversaries, though experts warn it could be overwhelmed by a full-scale assault from Russia or China.

In Israeli Domestic Politics, Brigadier-General (Reserve) Dedi Simchi announced he is entering the political arena to influence from within, saying that all options are relevant and that it may involve forming a party or uniting blocs. He described a plan to connect people as a central goal and indicated openness to engaging with multiple political actors. Separately, after two years of Haredi ultimatums over the draft law, elections may move up only by weeks as coalition tensions approach a final phase; ultra-Orthodox parties had threatened to bolt but backed the budget to secure funds and appointments, leaving Shas and key rabbis largely silent as the coalition crisis nears its endgame.

In Antisemitism and Anti-Jewish Hate, a Toronto resident has been charged with mischief for knocking over a menorah in front of the Yorkville Jewish Centre. The accused, Jeffrey Johnston, was identified following coverage by The Jerusalem Post. Toronto Police Service said Johnston intentionally knocked over the menorah on April 10, and investigators released photos appealing for public tips. Johnston’s social media posts feature antisemitic imagery, and authorities note the case has drawn public attention as part of ongoing concerns about anti-Jewish hate.

In Uplifting News, the Arthur Rubinstein International Piano Master Competition is marking the 18th edition with a bifurcated structure due to security concerns in Israel. The opening stages ran April 28 to May 4 at the Casals Forum in Kronberg, Germany, while the final rounds have been postponed to September 3–9 and will be split between the Tel Aviv Museum of Art and the Charles Bronfman Auditorium. The six finalists are Roman Fediurko, Uladzislau Khandohi, Stanislav Korchagin, Philipp Lynov, Jinhyung Park, and Dmitry Yudin, who will perform chamber music and concertos with the Israel Camerata Jerusalem, followed by an orchestral finale with the Israel Philharmonic Orchestra. The competition has long helped launch the careers of leading pianists and remains a cornerstone of the international music scene.

Thank you for tuning in to this Israel Today: Ongoing War Report update.
I'm Noa Levi. Stay safe and informed.
Keep in mind that this AI-generated report may contain occasional inaccuracies, so consult multiple sources for a comprehensive view. Find the code and more details in the podcast description.

SOURCES
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-895973
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-895974
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/05/vietnam-state-oil-company-urges-us-navy-allow-tanker-through-blockade-document
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-895968
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-895972
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-895963
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/b1pnr4zkmg
https://www.jpost.com/diaspora/antisemitism/article-895967
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/culture/article-895969