Stress test: the Iran war and a US grid under pressure | Live from the ACORE Finance Forum, Day two

The war with Iran has put a spotlight on the security and resilience of energy and supply chains around the world. In this second special episode from the ACORE Finance Forum in New York, host Ed Crooks explores what that means for the US power industry, at a moment when rising electricity demand was already putting the grid under strain.

Lori Ann LaRocco, a trade and supply chain expert and author of Trade War: Containers Don't Lie, explains the global impacts from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. She tells us that there are 70,000 products made from petrochemicals, including the components that go into solar panels, the chips for data centers, and your cell phone. Supplies of those products are being crunched because of the disruption to exports from the Gulf. Some are already in short supply. Even if the strait reopened tomorrow, the physical realities of repositioning tankers, clearing mines and restoring export infrastructure would mean supply chains would take at least a year to normalise. Her advice: know your supply chain not just to the first tier, but to the fifth, sixth and seventh.

José Antonio Miranda, chief executive of Avangrid, talks about the opportunities and challenges created by rising electricity demand. He says investment needs to start now and keep going. His one word advice for policymakers: certainty. Investors have the capital and the expertise to deliver the new grid and generation capacity that policymakers want, he says. What the private sector cannot work with is retroactive rule changes and unpredictable permitting outcomes.

Harry Krejsa, director of studies at the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy and Technology, is a former official in both the Trump and Biden administrations who is focused on the relationship between energy and national security. He argues that worries about depending on China for clean energy technology often conflate two issues: cybersecurity risk, and supply chain dependency. His principle is guard the smart stuff, buy the dumb stuff, and build the future.

Kara McNutt, Wood Mackenzie's head of power and renewables consulting for the Americas, shares her concerns about grid reliability. The share of dispatchable generation on the US grid is declining as coal-fired power plants shut down and new wind and solar capacity is added. Nuclear is genuinely exciting, with the global SMR pipeline nearly doubling in the past year, but it is a 2030s story rather than a solution for today.

Benoy Thanjan, founder of Reneu Energy and host of the Solar Maverick podcast, is a solar developer. He is seeing surging interest in behind-the-meter storage, driven in part by concerns about energy security and resilience brought to the surface by the Iran war. The FEOC (Foreign Entities of Concern) rules, intended to stop unfriendly countries benefiting from US tax credits, remain a real point of friction. Customers want US-manufactured equipment, but the price gap between compliant and non-compliant products is still very large.

Ray Long, president and chief executive of ACORE, closes by sharing his key takeaways from the forum. He says three things need to change to remove obstacles to investment: federal permitting reform, clear FEOC guidance from the Treasury, and faster approvals from the Departments of Interior, War and Energy for new projects.

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