Securing the Gulf: Iran, Regional Order, and the US Partnership

In this episode of ROPESCAST, Ksenia Svetlova sits down with Dr. Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, who offers an interesting perspective on the shifting strategic landscape of the region.

The discussion centers on Iran’s proxies and the evolving dynamics of relations between Tehran and Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas. Dr. Vakil explains how these groups have institutionalized themselves as both political, military and social forces.She paints a rather complicated picture of what has happened since the beginning of the Iran war, illustrating why a purely military approach to defeating these groups often fails to address the underlying regional reality.

A significant portion of the conversation interrogates the decision-making process within the current U.S. administration. Dr. Vakil analyzes what she describes as a “hollowing out” of regional expertise in Washington and cautions against the dangerous allure of seeking “easy wins” against the Islamic Republic—a regime that operates on a strategic calculus built over decades of survival.

The episode concludes with a look at the Palestinian arena and the influence of the war in Iran on it.

Chapters:

00:00 – Welcome to ROPESCAST

02:13 – “Did Anyone Expect This War?”

03:50 – How October 7 Reshaped the Middle East

05:02 – Israel’s Miscalculation on Iran

06:32 – How Iran Built the “Axis of Resistance”

09:45 – Why Hezbollah & Hamas Can’t Be Defeated Militarily

15:27 – After Soleimani: The Axis Reinvents Itself

21:37 – Washington’s Iran Expertise “Hollowed Out”

26:31 – A New Middle East Security Order?

34:44 – “The Real War Was Disinformation

39:15 – Can This Conflict End Through Negotiation?

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