The Rally No One Trusts | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next
The OPEX Effect10 Touko 2025

The Rally No One Trusts | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

In this episode of Excess Returns, Jack Forehand and Brent Kochuba from SpotGamma break down the forces at play beneath the surface of the market as we head into the May 2025 options expiration (OPEX). While the S&P 500 has rallied hard, a deeper look at positioning, liquidity, volatility, and sentiment reveals a market on a potentially fragile footing. From the continued explosion of zero DTE options to concerning signs from liquidity metrics, this discussion explores how short-term positioning could dictate major moves—and why the post-OPEX landscape may not be as stable as it appears. Plus, yes… we finally explain the "Saul Goodman" reference.

🔑 Topics Covered:

Why May’s OPEX setup is lopsided with call exposure—and why that’s dangerous

The eerie lack of downside hedging despite a big market rally

How zero DTE options and mean reversion flows are masking real volatility

The dangerous illusion of low realized vol vs. wide intraday ranges

Why poor liquidity is a potential precursor for the next volatility event

Analysis of SPX vs. SPY positioning—and which one signals more risk

The “Saul Goodman” signal: What it means and why it might be a contrarian tell

What the data says about a potential flip post-OPEX

June expiration on deck: Could it be the next volatility catalyst?

Tämä jakso on lisätty Podme-palveluun avoimen RSS-syötteen kautta eikä se ole Podmen omaa tuotantoa. Siksi jakso saattaa sisältää mainontaa.

Jaksot(36)

Big Rally Collides with Oil and Rate Reality | What the Options Market Says Comes Next

Big Rally Collides with Oil and Rate Reality | What the Options Market Says Comes Next

SpotGamma founder Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to break down September options expiration, the S&P 500's negative gamma risk, and what options positioning reveals about potential stock market vol...

12 Syys 59min

Big Semi Decline. Big Rally. Big Macro Risk | What the Options Market Says Comes Next

Big Semi Decline. Big Rally. Big Macro Risk | What the Options Market Says Comes Next

In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Jack Forehand and SpotGamma founder Brent Kochuba break down how options expiration, 0DTE trading, dealer gamma and leveraged flows are shaping the stock market. Th...

15 Elo 51min

Not Since the Dot-Com Bubble | The Vol Signal Flashing for the First Time in 20 Years

Not Since the Dot-Com Bubble | The Vol Signal Flashing for the First Time in 20 Years

Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma is back for The OPEX Effect to explain why July options expiration could remove a major source of market support and open the door to a volatility spike or stock market corr...

11 Heinä 1h 4min

SpaceX, OPEX, and the Flows Behind the Biggest IPO in History

SpaceX, OPEX, and the Flows Behind the Biggest IPO in History

In this episode of The OPEX Effect, Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand break down the market structure impact of the SpaceX IPO, options expiration, dealer gamma, volatility, and the next major setup for...

13 Kesä 1h 7min

The Melt Up That No One Expected | What the Options Market Says About What Comes Next

The Melt Up That No One Expected | What the Options Market Says About What Comes Next

Brent Kochuba of SpotGamma joins Jack Forehand for the May 2026 OPEX Effect to break down what options positioning is saying after a massive AI and semiconductor-led market rally. They discuss SPX cal...

9 Touko 1h 6min

The Market the Tweets Can’t Break | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

The Market the Tweets Can’t Break | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

This episode of The Opex Effect breaks down why markets have remained surprisingly resilient despite geopolitical chaos, an oil shock, and extreme headline risk. Brent Kochuba joins Jack Forehand to a...

11 Huhti 1h 8min

A 3% Drop from VIX 40 | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

A 3% Drop from VIX 40 | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

This episode breaks down the growing tension beneath the surface of today’s markets, where volatility signals, options positioning, and macro risks like war and inflation are increasingly misaligned. ...

20 Maalis 1h 9min

Violently Going Nowhere | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

Violently Going Nowhere | What the Options Market Tells Us About What Comes Next

In this episode of The Opex Effect, Jack and Brent break down the growing impact of options markets on stocks, volatility, and sector rotation. While the major indexes appear calm, massive moves benea...

15 Helmi 1h 6min

Suosittua kategoriassa Liike-elämä ja talous

sijotuskasti
vallattomat
psykopodiaa-podcast
mimmit-sijoittaa
rss-rahapodi
ostan-asuntoja-podcast
rss-oivalluksia-rahasta-elamasta
rss-rahamania
lakicast
hyva-paha-johtaminen
rss-paasipodi
rss-sami-miettinen-neuvottelija
rss-pinnan-alle
pomojen-suusta
rss-karon-grilli
oppimisen-psykologia
rss-lentopaivakirjat
rss-bisnesta-bebeja
rss-inderes
sijoituspodi