US Wants Free Commerce

Wednesday, May 20, 2026. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report drops 10:30 AM ET, covering week ended May 15. Previous report (May 13): U.S. commercial crude inventories fell 4.306M barrels to 452.9M barrels for week ended May 8, exceeding analyst forecasts of ~2.0-2.1M barrel draw (bullish signal, tighter supplies). EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook projects large global oil inventory draws averaging 8.5M barrels/day in Q2 2026 due to Middle East supply disruptions. If today's report shows another draw, crude stays bid; if build, profit-taking possible. Brent expected to average ~$106/bbl in May-June 2026, WTI tracks Brent at discount. EIA now sees 2026 Brent averaging $95, WTI mid-$80s (both revised higher due to geopolitical risk). NATURAL GAS: Storage report Thursday. Working gas in storage 2,290 Bcf (51 Bcf above year-ago, 140 Bcf above five-year average). Henry Hub June contract $2.86-$2.88, limited upside pressure, soft fundamentals, LNG maintenance at Freeport/Golden Pass suppressing demand. Shoulder-season weather supports continued large builds through late May. GEOPOLITICS: Negotiations remain fragile. Trump called off planned Tuesday strike at request of Gulf leaders due to "serious negotiations." Iran insists on retaining Strait control, US wants free commerce. Sticking points: Hormuz control and sanctions relief. Today's EIA report is catalyst. If draws continue, crude stays elevated. If builds appear, pullback possible. Gas in holding pattern, storage builds large, demand soft, prices stable. Capital preservation first.

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