Episode 410: The State of Investing in 2026

In this episode, we are joined by Shelly Antoniewicz, Chief Economist at the Investment Company Institute (ICI), for a data-rich exploration of the modern fund industry. Shelly walks us through the staggering scale of global regulated funds, how ETFs and mutual funds shape capital allocation, and why the rise of indexing may not be as disruptive as critics fear.

We discuss the growth of ETFs versus mutual funds, increasing concentration among large fund sponsors, and how financial advisors are reshaping portfolios around low-cost investment products. Shelly also explains why fund fees keep falling, how 401(k) plans have democratized investing for middle-class households, and why investor choice remains central to healthy capital markets. Along the way, we unpack active ETFs, intraday liquidity, interval funds, private credit exposure, and the evolving role of retail investors in financial markets.

Key Points From This Episode:

(0:00:00) Introducing Shelly Antoniewicz and the role of the Investment Company Institute.

(0:01:14) The Investment Company Fact Book and why it has become a foundational resource for fund industry data.

(0:03:31) Regulated funds globally now account for roughly $88 trillion in assets.

(0:04:47) The U.S. market contains nearly 17,000 investment companies across mutual funds, ETFs, and related structures.

(0:05:40) U.S. equity funds alone hold roughly $27 trillion in assets.

(0:06:52) More than half of mutual fund and ETF assets are now in index strategies.

(0:07:40) Why index funds still represent only a minority share of the overall U.S. stock market.

(0:09:48) What academic research says about indexing's impact on price discovery and market efficiency.

(0:13:10) There are nearly 770 fund sponsors in the U.S., though industry concentration continues to rise.

(0:13:42) ETF sponsors experienced enormous inflows in 2025, with 90% receiving net new cash.

(0:15:23) Why the largest fund complexes now control a much larger share of industry assets.

(0:16:06) Compliance costs and regulation as drivers of industry consolidation.

(0:17:31) Falling expense ratios as evidence that the industry remains highly competitive.

(0:19:28) How investor flows often reflect rebalancing behavior rather than performance chasing.

(0:22:32) Why ETF investors highly value intraday liquidity, even if most do not actively trade.

(0:23:27) Research on ETF trading behavior among younger investors and retail participants.

(0:27:11) The massive shift from actively managed U.S. equity mutual funds toward indexed products.

(0:27:51) How financial advisors increasingly use model portfolios built around ETFs.

(0:31:20) Why active ETFs exploded in popularity after the ETF rule streamlined launches.

(0:32:31) The growing distinction between ETF wrappers and investment strategies themselves.

(0:33:05) Leveraged and niche ETF products, investor choice, and financial education.

(0:35:48) More than half of U.S. households now own regulated investment funds.

(0:36:41) How 401(k) plans dramatically increased middle-class participation in capital markets.

(0:39:16) Households remain the dominant owners of mutual fund assets.

(0:40:28) The demographic profile of the typical mutual fund-owning household.

(0:41:16) ETF-owning households tend to skew younger, wealthier, and more risk tolerant.

(0:42:03) Mutual fund assets continue to grow despite persistent outflows toward ETFs.

(0:43:39) How investor risk tolerance changes with age and market conditions.

(0:46:22) Economies of scale and the continued decline in fund fees.

(0:47:51) Interval funds, BDCs, and the rise of regulated private credit products.

(0:49:36) Redemption caps and liquidity management inside interval funds.

(0:52:51) Shelly reflects on the enduring popularity of the Investment Company Fact Book.

(0:55:05) Shelly's definition of success: raising children who tell you they love you.

Links From Today's Episode:

Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p

Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582.
Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/

Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/
Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/

Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix

Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/

Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)