Weekly Recap: Week 21

Friday, May 22, 2026. CRUDE OIL RECAP: Mon $108.66 (+3%), Tue $107.77 (-0.82%), Wed $98.26 (-8.82% sharp drop on peace deal progress), Thu $97.73 (-0.54%), Fri $98.30 (+0.58%). Weekly range $96-$109, volatile mid-week plunge followed by partial recovery. Crude tumbled May 20 on reports of progress toward US-Iran peace deal that could reopen Strait of Hormuz; prices stabilized as negotiations remained fluid. Technical: Rebound from April lows near $79, golden cross forming on longer-term moving averages, warnings of potential corrections toward $95-$100 support. Volatility: Continued noisy trading, wide possible range $80 floor to $120 ceiling depending on de-escalation or further disruptions. Year-over-year: Prices remain elevated but face downward pressure from potential resolution of conflicts. NATURAL GAS RECAP: Storage report May 21 showed 101 Bcf injection for week ending May 15 (33 Bcf above year-ago, 149 Bcf above five-year average). Working gas reached 2,391 Bcf, well-supplied heading into summer, expectations for above-average injections through October. Henry Hub futures near $2.99-$3.01, seasonal lull, mild weather supporting storage refills, LNG maintenance suppressing near-term demand. Production ~106-109 Bcf/d, Mexican exports steady near 7 Bcf/d. GEOPOLITICS: Incremental progress toward preliminary one-page MOU between US and Iran, but stalled on core issues (Strait of Hormuz reopening, Iran's nuclear program). Iran's approach: End war within 30 days, mutual non-aggression, lift US blockade for Strait reopening, war reparations, US force withdrawal, nuclear issues deferred. US rejected Iranian control over strait or insufficient nuclear concessions. Trump cited great progress, very good chance of deal, threatened to resume strikes if needed. Iranian officials warned against returning to war. Obstacles: Disputes over sequencing, Iran's enrichment levels, verification, whether Iran can impose fees/maintain control over strait. BOTTOM LINE: Crude fell $108.66 to $98.30 on de-escalation hopes. If deal materializes, expect further downside toward $85-$90. If talks collapse, back to $110+. Gas well-supplied, storage builds large, demand soft, prices stable. Capital preservation first.