Strait of Hormuz Centrality

Monday, May 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI opened week at $92.04, down 4.72% from Friday's close of $96.60. Drop driven by negotiations advancing toward potential short-term agreement on Strait of Hormuz reopening. Week recap: May 22 open $98, close $96.60; May 21 open $98.95, close $96.35; May 20 open $104.12, close $98.26; May 24 close $92.13. Trend clear: crude pricing in de-escalation. Trump stated agreement "has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization," explicitly linking it to Strait reopening. Indicated willingness to wait a few days for "right answer" while keeping pressure in place. KEY LEVELS: Support $90, below that $85. Resistance $95, above that $100. SETUP: If deal announced, expect break below $90, target $80-$85. If talks collapse, back to $100+. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub spot prices falling. May 1 $2.66, May 8 $2.74, May 15 $2.86, May 22 $2.91. CME futures trading $3.00-$3.03, July contract $3.034. Pressure from cooler U.S. weather forecasts reducing AC demand, record-high production, soft fundamentals. SETUP: Support $2.85, resistance $3.10, range-bound for now. GEOPOLITICS: Trump says agreement largely negotiated, Strait reopening central. Iran floated proposals via Pakistan: reopening strait, sanctions relief, frozen assets release, US force withdrawal, 30-day nuclear talks window. Remaining hurdles: Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, nuclear enrichment limits, strait control/security arrangements. Both sides rejected elements of other's proposals. No final deal confirmed yet, but Trump signaling imminent announcements. BOTTOM LINE: Crude pricing in deal. If happens, expect $80-$85 targets. If doesn't, back to $100+. Gas soft, weather cooler, production high, prices stable. Capital preservation first.