Is Iran War Deal Imminent? | Macro Mondays: May 25, 2025

Real Vision’s Mikkel Rosenvold and Andreas Steno Larsen break down the latest market reaction to reports of a possible Strait of Hormuz deal, what it could mean for oil and inflation, and why the next phase of the market may depend on whether Middle East tensions truly de-escalate. They also explore a surprising inflation driver in hardware and semiconductors, explain why consumer spending is holding up better than many expect, and share the sectors they’re watching next. Let Monarch do your financial 'spring cleaning' for you! Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50. Today’s sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you’re a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500’s user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you’ve been looking for. Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss. 🔥 Get 𝗙𝗥𝗘𝗘 𝗔𝗖𝗖𝗘𝗦𝗦 to Real Vision https://rvtv.io/3YOZZUe Timestamps: 00:00 - Monarch Sponsor 01:00 - Macro Mondays: Iran, Hormuz, and Global Markets 01:31 - Strait of Hormuz Deal Rumors and Market Reaction 02:50 - Europe’s Heat Wave and the Energy Debate 04:21 - Trump, Iran, and the Weekend Negotiation Push 06:01 - Can Trump Sell an Iran Deal to Republicans? 07:12 - Abraham Accords, Iran, and Middle East Strategy 07:59 - Oil Drops, Bond Yields Fall, and Markets Rally 09:11 - Are Iranian Ships Actually Moving Through Hormuz? 10:58 - Why Markets Care More About Hormuz Than Politics 13:03 - Inflation Outlook: Energy vs Consumer Prices 14:20 - Kevin Warsh, AI, and the Disinflation Argument 17:45 - Which Sectors Benefit Most From Inflation? 18:45 - Why AI Hardware Is Suddenly Inflationary 21:08 - The AI Memory Boom and Rising Electronics Prices 23:39 - Why Hardware Stocks Have Outperformed in 2026 24:02 - What Happens if Inflation Peaks in June? 25:20 - Consumer Spending Is Holding Up Surprisingly Well 27:01 - Amazon, Tesla, and Luxury Stocks as the Next Trade 28:11 - PCE Inflation Data: What Markets Need This Week 29:28 - Final Thoughts: Waiting on the Iran Deal Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices