Running the Inverted Offensive Campaign with Adam Karcher

What happens when the adversary’s dwell time is measured in years, but your defense is measured in tickets? Adam Karcher, FBI Supervisory Special Agent, Cyber Division, and a member of the Bureau’s AI Working Group, joins host Caleb Tolin to break down the "convergent evolution" of modern cyber threats. Karcher explains why defenders are often stuck in a cleanup cycle, while threat actors operate in a sophisticated, compartmentalized ecosystem that requires a fundamental shift in defensive strategy. The conversation provides a rare look at how the FBI evaluates agentic AI technology. Karcher warns of the transition from AI that simply answers questions to agents that take independent actions, emphasizing why these systems must remain well-bounded and auditable. He also debunks the "glamorous" myth of cyber investigations, revealing why law enforcement breakthroughs almost always stem from human OPSEC mistakes rather than complex code analysis. Whether you are managing legacy mainframes or securing a modern identity stack, this episode provides a tactical roadmap for treating your security posture as an "inverted offensive campaign." Resources Information Sharing and Analysis Centers (ISACs)⁠ ⁠Local FBI Field Offices What You’ll Learn Match your defensive cadence to the adversary's multi-year campaign dwell time. Prioritize auditable AI use cases to prevent autonomous agents from acting on hallucinations. Focus on "people mistakes" like infrastructure reuse rather than just analyzing malicious code. Secure identity stacks to defend against AI-driven deep fakes and precision phishing. Engage with ISACs and local field offices before a crisis occurs.