How the Iran war destroyed Israel's deterrence

Both of Israel’s wars in Iran have been “strategic failures” and critically damaged the country’s deterrence, Danny Citrinowicz, a former top Iran expert in Israeli military intelligence, told the Haaretz Podcast.

He cited a long list of missteps and misguided assumptions that led to the failure of the solo military operation in 2025 and the joint U.S. attack in February.

“We overestimated air power and underestimated Iranian resilience,” Citrinowicz said, resulting in the “worst possible strategic reality, with a more extreme, decentralized regime in Tehran,” and heightened tensions with the U.S. – all while highlighting Israel’s dependence on the U.S. as a weakness.

While Iran once feared an attack by Israel, he noted, its leaders have now learned that they can be attacked by the two strongest air forces in the world and emerge with its regime intact, as well as “the capacity to launch missiles and drones, and theoretically has the potential to move to a nuclear bomb.”

Moreover, in a boomerang effect, he noted, wars launched to deter Iran’s nuclear program have likely intensified Tehran’s motivation to acquire nuclear capacity in order to prevent future attacks.

In his conversation with podcast host Allison Kaplan Sommer, Citrinowicz – a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies – also discussed the intensifying conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and U.S. President Donald Trump’s continued belief that Saudi Arabia will soon join the Abraham Accords, which he called a hope “detached from reality.”

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