Week 24 Opens: Strategic Positioning

Monday, June 8, 2026. WTI crude oil trading $90-$92.50/bbl. July 2026 futures near $90. Prediction markets show 87% probability WTI moves below $90 this week. 94% odds closes above $88 on June 8. War premium fading. Geopolitical risk pricing out. CRUDE OIL: WTI at $90.50, down from $91-$92 range last week. Volatility compressing. Range-bound trading. EIA forecasts WTI around $106 in May/June 2026 amid inventory draws. Longer-term decline projected toward $89 in Q4 2026. Analysts revised 2026 averages upward due to supply disruptions. Full-year WTI in $80-$96 range in updated outlooks. Underlying thesis remains: mean reversion, oversupply, structural headwinds. Position: Short rallies toward $95, target $85-$88. Risk management first. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub at $3.22. July 2026 futures around $3.22/MMBtu. Spot June 1 was $3.07. Prediction markets trading $3.22-$3.25 for June 8 close. Elevated storage, strong production, seasonal factors keeping prices low-to-mid $3 range near-term. EIA forecasts 2026 annual average approximately $3.50/MMBtu. Position: Accumulate $3.00-$3.25, target $4.00+. GEOPOLITICAL: Iran halted negotiations early June, vowing to completely block Strait of Hormuz. Ceasefire fragile. Military skirmishes ongoing. Trump says deal largely negotiated. Iran denies. No breakthrough expected by June 8. Strait remains wildcard. If reopens, crude crashes. If closes further, crude spikes. Market pricing in stalemate. THE SETUP: Crude fading on de-escalation hopes. Gas holding accumulation range. Decoupling thesis intact. Week 24 about patience. Trade the data, not the headlines.

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Geographic Spotlight: Ecuador

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3 Heinä 2min

Geographic Spotlight: Belarus

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2 Heinä 2min

Strategic Positioning: Week 27 Midweek Update

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1 Heinä 3min

Technicals: Week 27

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30 Kesä 2min

Doha Talks Resume

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29 Kesä 2min

Weekly Recap: Week 26 Complete

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26 Kesä 2min

Crude Breaks $70

Thursday, June 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading $69.20-$69.36 (down 1.4-1.7% from prior close ~$70.34). Daily range ~$69.01-$70.23. August 2026 contract ~$69.66. Recent performance down ~26% pa...

25 Kesä 2min

EIA Inventory Report: Draws Continue

Wednesday, June 24, 2026. EIA CRUDE OIL INVENTORY REPORT RELEASED TODAY. Week ending June 19. Released June 24 at 10:30 AM ET. MOST RECENT DATA: EIA report released Jun 17 for week ending Jun 12: Comm...

24 Kesä 2min