Crude Elevated On War Premium

Wednesday, June 10, 2026. CRUDE OIL: WTI trading $88.20-$89.34 range, high near $90, low near $88.28. Earlier in week spiked to $95.47 on Iran tensions, retraced $4+ as tensions eased. YTD gains ~55-58%. Futures curve backwardation amid supply concerns. Geopolitical volatility dominant driver. Setup: Crude range-bound, waiting for Strait clarity. If negotiations succeed and Strait reopens, crude crashes. If talks fail and conflict escalates, crude spikes. Market pricing stalemate with occasional flare-ups. NATURAL GAS: Henry Hub spot June 1 $3.07/MMBtu. Futures NGN26 ~$3.183. May 2026 average $2.94/MMBtu. EIA STEO: $3.50/MMBtu full-year 2026 average. STORAGE: Week ending May 29 (released June 4): 2,578 Bcf working gas, +95 Bcf net injection. 3 Bcf below year-ago, 138 Bcf (6%) above 5-year average. Next report June 11. Setup: Gas holding accumulation range. Storage ample, production strong, seasonal factors neutral. Waiting for weather shock or LNG demand spike. GEOPOLITICAL: US Army helicopter crashed near Strait June 9, pilots stable/uninjured. Trump blamed Iran, US conducted proportional retaliatory strikes. Trump maintains deal close, Strait could reopen shortly after signing. Negotiations in final throes, possible deal in 2-3 days. Sticking points: Iran's nuclear enrichment (US demands long-term suspension, HEU dilution, site dismantling, snap inspections). Iran resisting. BOTTOM LINE: Crude elevated on war premium. Gas decoupled. Negotiations fluid. Helicopter incident adds volatility but Trump optimistic. If Strait reopens, crude crashes. If talks fail, crude spikes. Trade the data, not the headlines.

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