409. Gaining Dominance: Ukraine Shifts the Momentum

"History moves gradually, then suddenly."

As Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine crosses a somber milestone—matching the exact duration of the First World War at 1,568 days—co-hosts Saul David and Patrick Bishop analyse what feels like a definitive "hinge moment" in the conflict. This week, the tide is turning rapidly in Ukraine’s favour, driven by an extraordinary and relentless intermediate-range drone campaign that Russia seems entirely incapable of combating.

In part one of this deep dive, Saul and Patrick break down how Ukrainian drone pilots have effectively seized control of critical Russian supply lines, including the vital M14 highway, forcing the Kremlin into a logistical catastrophe. From frontline reports of Russian soldiers reduced to acting as supply mules to panic-buying and fuel rationing in occupied Crimea, the vital organs of the Russian war machine are under heavy fire.

The hosts also examine the broader strategic landscape: Russia's deepening diplomatic isolation following pivotal elections in Armenia, the restructuring of Ukraine’s armed forces into powerful army corps, and the geopolitical chess match behind President Zelenskyy’s latest peace feelers.

Later in the episode, the guys dive into the listener mailbag to answer your questions on:

• The psychological and political fallout of a potential large-scale Russian frontline collapse.
• How NATO handles Russia's continuous "fuzzy" hybrid provocations and the true threshold of Article 5.
• Whether the rapid evolution of cheap drone tech will permanently grounded multi-million dollar fighter jets in future warfare.

Plus, a cyber security update on big tech's shifting role in the war, and a look back at the incredible, viral response to their recent interview with Ukrainian special operations forces operative Katya Ratushna.

Join the Conversation: If you have a question about the war in Ukraine or any of the conflicts we cover, email us at podbattleground@gmail.com

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Producer: James Hodgson

A Goalhanger Podcast

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