233. To predict the future, “In BNEF we Trust” - Jun26

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) have made significant progress in recent years. Yet they remain largely top-down institutions shaped by policy priorities. When trillions of dollars in investment decisions are at stake, investors and operators increasingly turn to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) and its team of more than 400 specialists.

Why does BNEF command such trust? BNEF combines Bloomberg’s unparalleled market data capabilities with deep expertise in batteries, solar, electric vehicles, and electrification. Unlike many international agencies, BNEF operates without a political mandate or advocacy agenda. Its bottom-up analysis provides investors with a more practical view of market realities than traditional top-down forecasts.

In this episode, Gerard and Laurent welcome Albert Cheung, CEO of BNEF, to discuss the findings of the New Energy Outlook 2026. The discussion begins with a review of NEO 2020. BNEF was notably accurate in forecasting the "electrons" side of the transition—solar, batteries, and EVs—while overestimating the pace of hydrogen and carbon capture deployment. Even so, its forecasting record remains among the strongest in the industry.

Looking ahead, NEO 2026 projects a rapidly electrifying global energy system. Solar power, batteries, EVs, and heat pumps are reshaping demand while reducing exposure to fossil-fuel price shocks. Oil demand is expected to decline as EV adoption accelerates. Gas demand may continue growing in the near term to support rising electricity consumption, but both oil and gas fall sharply under stronger net-zero pathways.

By 2032, solar is projected to become the world's largest source of electricity. Battery storage will scale rapidly, enabling more flexible and resilient power systems.
The report also makes clear that, despite substantial progress—especially in China—current technologies and policies are still insufficient to fully achieve global net-zero goals. However, the gap between ambition and reality is narrowing thanks to energy security concerns, declining costs, and continued technological progress.

Overall, it was a thoughtful, insightful, and hopeful conversation. The energy transition is advancing. We are getting there.

Resources New Energy Outlook 2026:
https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-energy/new-energy-outlook/
BNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook 2026:
https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-transport/electric-vehicle-outlook/