Crude Breaks $70

Thursday, June 25, 2026. CRUDE OIL UPDATE: WTI trading $69.20-$69.36 (down 1.4-1.7% from prior close ~$70.34). Daily range ~$69.01-$70.23. August 2026 contract ~$69.66. Recent performance down ~26% past month, still up ~6% YTD. PRIMARY DRIVER: Easing supply concerns as Strait of Hormuz shipping returns to normal, increasing crude flows, pressuring prices lower. Brent crude low-to-mid $72s (multi-month lows). Near-term levels four-to-five month lows, continued downward pressure. VOLATILITY NOTE: Significant retreat from 2026 highs tied to geopolitical supply risks. Markets pricing in improved supply availability. SETUP: Crude broken below $70. Support at $67.93. Below that $65.15. Resistance at $71.84. Above that $73.91. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. NATURAL GAS UPDATE: Most recent EIA report released Jun 18 for week ending Jun 12: Total working gas 2,759 Bcf. Weekly net change +73 Bcf injection. Year-ago (Jun 12, 2025) 2,788 Bcf (down 29 Bcf or -1.0%). 5-year average (2021-2025) 2,608 Bcf (up 151 Bcf or +5.8%). Within 5-year historical range. REGIONAL INJECTIONS: East +18, Midwest +28, Mountain +4, Pacific +5, South Central +16 Bcf. NEXT REPORT: Jun 25 at 10:30 AM ET for week ending Jun 19. Analyst forecasts ~68 Bcf injection. Prior week 73 Bcf below some expectations (80-82 Bcf), contributing to upward pressure on natural gas prices. DEAL STATUS: MOU signed ~Jun 15-17. Formal signing Jun 19, Switzerland. 60-day negotiation window for broader deal. KEY ELEMENTS: Iran diluting highly enriched uranium stockpiles. UN nuclear inspectors returning. Strait of Hormuz reopened to maritime traffic, no tolls. Sanctions relief, possible frozen assets release ($25-300B incentives/reconstruction). Working groups on oversight, sanctions, nuclear matters. STRAIT OF HORMUZ SHIPPING: Previously near zero daily transits during conflict. Partial reopening under MOU with fluctuating but generally increasing traffic. Projections rise toward 40-50% pre-war levels (~40 transits/day vs ~100 pre-war) within 30 days if stable. Recent stalls only 12 ships one Sunday amid closure announcements, traffic picked up since. Iranian, Omani, international routes in use. NEGOTIATIONS: Technical talks set to resume Geneva following week. US officials (Secretary of State Marco Rubio) warning talks could halt if Iran seeks tolls. Regional players (Qatar, Saudi Arabia) discussing security implications. BOTTOM LINE: Crude broken below $70. Support at $67.93. Fade trade complete. Mean reversion delivered. Gas storage building. Injections strong. Accumulation zone intact. $3.05-$3.15 prime entry. Target $4.00+. Deal live. Hormuz shipping normalizing. Geopolitical premium gone. Trade the data, not the headlines.