Karen Karniol-Tambour - Macro Headwinds vs. Tech Tailwinds - [Invest Like the Best, EP.329]

Today’s conversation was recorded during last week’s Sohn Conference. I sat down with Karen Karniol-Tambour, Co-CIO at Bridgewater Associates. I hosted Karen on this show two years ago and if you listened to that, you’ll remember she has a rare skill for distilling and analysing complex macro topics. Today’s environment is strikingly different to the summer of 2021 so this is a timely conversation on the big macro variables that are on investors’ minds today. Please enjoy my conversation with Karen Karniol-Tambour. Sohn 2023 | Kiril Sokoloff in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller Sohn 2023 | Patrick Collison in conversation Sam Altman Listen to Founders Podcast Founders Episode 136 - Estee Lauder Founders Episode 288 - Ralph Lauren For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Tegus, the modern research platform for leading investors. Stretch your research budget with flexible expert calls you can trust. At a fraction of the cost of traditional expert networks, Tegus customers pay only what an expert charges – with zero markups and no confusing call credits – netting an average 70% savings. Don’t want to conduct a full hour call? Tegus offers the ability to schedule 30-minutes, an offer you won’t find anywhere else. And they don’t stop there. With white-glove custom sourcing for every project and robust compliance measures, including a dedicated 50+ analyst team that vets every call transcript, Tegus ensures your privacy and protection. As the industry innovator for qualitative insights, Tegus helps you find the right experts you need at a quality and speed that can’t be matched. For a limited time, as a listener, you can trial Tegus for free by visiting tegus.co/patrick. ----- Invest Like the Best is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Invest Like the Best, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Past guests include Tobi Lutke, Kevin Systrom, Mike Krieger, John Collison, Kat Cole, Marc Andreessen, Matthew Ball, Bill Gurley, Anu Hariharan, Ben Thompson, and many more. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @patrick_oshag | @JoinColossus Show Notes (00:03:05) - (First question) - Her take on AI and watching this new technology unfold (00:06:39) - Things she’s watching in the AI space that might lead to taking portfolio action (00:09:19) - Potentially using AI to inform or make investment decisions (00:10:17) - Why might it be the case that no one can use AI for investing in macro markets (00:11:14) - What she’d write about regarding the general state of capital markets today (00:13:46) - What pricing is telling us about market sentiment writ large (00:15:47) - Thinking about portfolio positioning in light of the unattractive state of risk assets (00:17:17) - Her perspectives on gold historically and today (00:20:09) - Big long-term slow-moving macro variables that aren’t quite visible yet (00:22:09) - The all-weather portfolio and building one in light of so much uncertainty (00:24:38) - The rise of China, its growing power, and potential conflicts with the US (00:28:01) - Monitoring for things like the banking crisis beneath the public narrative (00:31:13) - Non-obvious variables that currently have her attention (00:33:29) - “Overrated or underrated” rapid-fire questions (00:36:04) - What it’s been like being the CIO of Bridgewater so far