2030 Reinsurance Predictions We Might Regret | TRP #174

Jerad and Ben skip the small talk and jump straight to 2030, asking the one question worth asking about AI and reinsurance: what actually changes, and what's just getting a shinier coat of paint. They cover cat models, capital allocation, contract structuring, dying market standards, and an industry expense ratio that's somehow gone up instead of down. No guest this week — just two hosts making predictions they might regret.

WHAT YOU'LL LEARN:

• Why AI-driven cat modeling might be the one part of reinsurance that actually gets faster and better, not just different
• Why the relationship-driven, napkin-deal side of the business probably won't look any different in 2030
• Why the market's expense ratio has crept up instead of down despite a decade of technology investment, and what that says about how the industry should be valuing tech spend in the first place
• Why rigid market standards and clause libraries might not survive contact with natural language processing
• Why nobody's handing a nine-figure placement to an autonomous agent any time soon, and where automation actually helps instead

CONNECT WITH US:

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OUTLINE & TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:09 Has reinsurance actually changed by 2030

02:11 Cat models get the biggest AI upgrade in the industry

04:44 How AI reshapes reinsurer portfolio and capital strategy

05:46 Why brokers couldn't care less whose paper it is

07:21 Alternative capital's coopetition with reinsurers

08:06 Testing five contract structures before lunch

10:48 The expense ratio problem nobody in reinsurance can explain

12:25 What Silicon Valley's AI spend says about return on investment

14:50 Is AI reinsurance's Concorde, or its Metaverse

18:23 Why natural language could kill reinsurance market standards

21:53 Would you hand a $50m placement to an autonomous agent

25:07 The most impactful reinsurance app was never built for reinsurance

26:53 Monte Carlo, quants, and the last of the 2030 predictions