What Are the Hidden Risks of a Ceasefire? We Asked Chatham House Experts

When people look at this war from the outside, they often ask one question: When will it end? Many assume that if a ceasefire is reached, the war will be over and life will return to normal. But we should not confuse a ceasefire with a lasting peace—or, more importantly, with a just peace that restores Ukraine’s rights. Thinking about a possible ceasefire, therefore, also means thinking about its risks, not only its opportunities. This is the “Explaining Ukraine” podcast. *** “Explaining Ukraine” is a podcast by UkraineWorld, an English-language media outlet run by Internews Ukraine. Host: Volodymyr Yermolenko, a Ukrainian philosopher, chief editor of UkraineWorld, and president of PEN Ukraine. Guests: experts at Chatham House, the renowned London-based think tank: - Orysia Lutsevych, Head of the Ukraine Forum and Deputy Director of the Russia and Eurasia Programme, and - John Lough, an Associate Fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Programme. Together with their colleagues, Simon Smith and Keir Giles, they wrote a report, “How a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire could imperil Ukrainian and European security”. In this episode, we will talk about its major arguments. Read the Chatham House Report: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/05/how-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-could-imperil-ukrainian-and-european-security *** Listen on various platforms: https://li.sten.to/explaining-ukraine UkraineWorld: https://ukraineworld.org/en *** SUPPORT: You can support our work on https://www.patreon.com/c/ukraineworld Your help is crucial, as we rely heavily on crowdfunding. You can also contribute to our volunteer missions to frontline areas in Ukraine, where we deliver aid to both soldiers and civilians. Donations are welcome via PayPal at: ukraine.resisting@gmail.com. *** CONTENTS: 01:57: Why is discussing a ceasefire, rather than victory or justice, a risk for Ukraine and its partners? 02:48: How does Chatham House view the possibility of a ceasefire, despite having previously argued for Ukrainian victory? 04:27: Do current events in Russia and potential political shifts in the US make a ceasefire a more plausible scenario? 07:13: What are the critical risks for Ukraine, including its sovereignty, economy, and social fabric, in the event of a ceasefire? 11:31: Will European nations maintain their resolve against Russia, or will a ceasefire lead to a desire to return to "business as usual"? 15:07: How will Ukraine manage the challenges of internal resilience, veteran reintegration, and democratic elections during a potential ceasefire? 22:15: How can the international community prevent a temporary ceasefire from morphing into a permanent, unrecognized occupation, akin to historical examples? 26:50: Has the mood within Ukraine shifted, with increased confidence in its ability to reclaim territory and resist pressure for an unfavorable ceasefire? 31:21: What are Chatham House's key recommendations for Europe to enforce a ceasefire, deter Russia, and support Ukraine's security? 37:45: What strategic priorities and reforms should Ukraine undertake to build its future military force and integrate with Europe after a ceasefire? 42:16: What are the significant risks for Ukraine and Europe if a ceasefire is not achieved and the war continues indefinitely? 45:39: Can Ukraine leverage its technological advancements to achieve a decisive military defeat of Russia, or does continued conflict pose greater dangers?