Episode 143: A TMM Monologue

Episode 143: A TMM Monologue

The ceasefire didn't hold, and neither did the calm. This week Steve flies solo (audio only) with a look at what the renewed Iran-US conflict means for oil, helium and fertiliser supply, and why the uncertainty premium is back in commodity markets.

Also in this episode:

Debt is piling up on both sides of the ledger: margin lending, leveraged ETFs and an options boom, all while the CAPE sits at 42, four and a half standard deviations above trend. Steve explains why that combination calls for caution, not prediction.

Military spending is booming across the US, Europe, Japan and Australia, and governments competing for copper, iron ore and aluminium is one more reason we like commodities, and especially energy, over the long term.

The OECD says the Australian economy is in trouble. Steve pushes back on the doom narrative, looks at the productivity debate, and unpacks what falling house prices might really signal.

Plus, in Watch Your Edge: buy and hold wasn't always gospel. When strawberries are $15 a punnet, you skip the strawberries. The same logic applies to overpriced markets, and holding cash while you wait is not missing out.

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