Geographic Spotlight: Mexico

Thursday, July 16, 2026. MEXICO ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. Mexico is a major crude oil producer and net natural gas importer. Energy sector dominated by Pemex (state-owned petroleum company). CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: Q1 2026 1.652M bpd (up 38k from Q1 2025). March 2026 1.745M bbl/d (up from 1.736M Feb 2026). 2026 government target 1.8M bpd (facing significant challenges/potential delays). Finance ministry forecast ~1.78M bpd in 2026. 2025 avg ~1.6M bpd. Mid-2025 Aug ~1.64M bpd. KEY CRUDE OIL FIELDS: Maloob, Ixachi, Zaap, Ayatsil, Quesqui. S&P GLOBAL ASSESSMENT: Questions feasibility of 1.8M bpd target; cites ongoing operational issues/need for continued government support. 2026 INVESTMENT PLAN: ~425B pesos (~$21B; 34% increase) to Pemex targeting 1.8M bpd crude/4.5 Bcf/d natural gas through 2030. REFINING: Crude refining rose 22.2% YoY in Q1 2026 to 1.141M bpd. BROADER CONTEXT: Long-term decline from historical peaks; efforts focused on new fields, mixed contracts, attracting private investment. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Q1 2026 wet/hydrocarbon gas 3.925 Bcf/d (up 12% or +423 MMcf/d YoY). Dry gas ~2.3 Bcf/d (recently; projected to stay near 2.299-2.302 Bcf/d in 2025-2026). Q2 2025 3.592 Bcf/d (down ~139 MMcf/d YoY); dry gas from plants 1.615 Bcf/d (down 12% YoY). 2025 FULL-YEAR OUTPUT: ~3.67 Bcf/d total; dry gas ~1.7 Bcf/d. DOMESTIC DEMAND/IMPORT RELIANCE: Domestic demand ~9 Bcf/d (or higher). Domestic production share only ~25%; ~75% imported (mainly via U.S. pipelines). U.S. EXPORT FORECASTS TO MEXICO: ~6.83 Bcf/d in 2025 (up from 6.46 Bcf/d in 2024); continued strength/records expected into 2026 due to Pemex output constraints. HISTORICAL CONTEXT: Pemex dry gas production declined from ~5 Bcf/d in 2010 to ~2.3 Bcf/d recently. LONGER-TERM TARGETS: >4 Bcf/d by 2030 (potentially up to 8.6 Bcf/d with unconventional development). KEY NATURAL GAS FIELDS: Bakté, Ixachi. EXPORT POSITION: Mexico net importer; minimal natural gas exports. THE READ: Crude 1.65-1.75M bpd, 1.8 target at risk, refining up 22%, investment plan in place, long-term decline trend. Gas 3.9 Bcf/d wet, 2.3 dry, 75% imported from U.S., Pemex output constraints driving record U.S. exports to Mexico. MEXICO ENERGY THESIS: Crude production stable but below target, refining gains supporting domestic supply, natural gas heavily import-dependent, U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico at record levels, long-term structural challenge for Pemex. Trade the data, not the headlines.