Geographic Spotlight: Uzbekistan

Friday, July 17, 2026. UZBEKISTAN ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. Uzbekistan is major natural gas producer and declining crude oil producer. Shifted from net exporter to increasingly import-dependent. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: Q1 2026 9.6 bcm (15% drop from 11.3 bcm Q1 2025). First five months 2026 15.8 bcm (down from 18.4 bcm same period 2025; ~14% decline or ~2.6 bcm drop). January 2026 3.7 bcm (down 7.5% YoY). 2026 FULL-YEAR TARGET: 40.2 bcm (planned). 2025 FULL-YEAR MARKETED PRODUCTION: 40.4 bcm (OPEC data). EXPORT REVENUES/IMPORT SPENDING: Export revenues Q1 2026 $36.7M (down sharply from $94.3M Q1 2025). Import spending Q1 2026 $360.5M on natural gas imports (up 2.2x YoY). RUSSIAN PIPELINE GAS SUPPLIES: Expected to rise to just over 10 bcm in 2026 (from 7 bcm in 2025; >40% increase) routed via Kazakhstan through Central Asia-Center system. GLOBAL RANKING: ~17th in natural gas production (mid-40s bcm range annually). TREND: Shifted from long-time net exporter, relying increasingly on imports due to aging fields, rising domestic demand, declining output. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: Current 29,000 bbl/d (March 2026; unchanged from prior months). Record low 29,000 bbl/d reached Aug 2025. Long-term avg since 1993 ~65,000 bbl/d. 2024 PRODUCTION: 46,122 bbl/d. Q1 2026 OUTPUT (TONS): 157,300 tons (down from 160,800 tons Q1 2025). January 2026 54,100 tons (1.8% decline YoY). PROVEN RESERVES: 594M barrels (2025); ranks #46 globally; ~0.034% of world reserves. NEW EXPLORATION POTENTIAL: Ustyurt region estimated 100M tons of oil + 35 bcm of gas; projects targeting up to 1M tons bitumen oil production by 2025, larger long-term output. PRODUCTION CONCENTRATION: Bukhara-Khiva ~70% of output historically. NEW PARTNERSHIPS: New production sharing agreements/seismic work (e.g., with BP/SOCAR in 2026) aim to boost future output; near-term figures show continued decline. PRODUCTION TREND: Trended downward from peaks in late 1990s. THE READ: Natural gas 9.6 bcm Q1 2026, down 15% YoY, export revenues collapsed, import spending up 2.2x, Russian imports surging, structural shift from exporter to importer. Crude oil 29,000 bbl/d record low, down from 65,000 avg since 1993, proven reserves 594M barrels, new exploration potential in Ustyurt, near-term decline trend. UZBEKISTAN ENERGY THESIS: Natural gas production declining sharply, export revenues collapsing, import dependency rising, Russian pipeline gas surging, crude oil at record lows, structural shift from exporter to importer, new exploration potential offers long-term upside but near-term headwinds persist. Trade the data, not the headlines.