Why the ‘great de-stocking’ in oil and commodities could pave the way for future gains

President Trump has voiced concern that a strong Dollar is damaging US competitiveness. Of course, exchange rates do matter for trade, and the US' non-oil trade balance has deteriorated sharply since the Dollar began to climb in 2014. So it’s no surprise that Trump’s laser focus on the US trade deficit would end up targeting Dollar strength—and that currency would become another front in the US-China trade war. Whether the US should, could, and would begin to proactively manage the Dollar, and whether these actions—or further trade war escalation—could lead to a global “currency war” is Top of Mind.   In this episode, Goldman Sachs Research’s Allison Nathan gets perspectives from the Peterson Institute’s Joseph Gagnon and the Council on Foreign Relations’ Brad Setser; both believe that Dollar strength and the associated US trade deficit are cause for concern, but see low odds of US foreign exchange intervention that triggers a currency war (Goldman Sachs analysts agree). But given that China has been managing the Yuan stronger than it otherwise would be, trade war escalation that motivates a sharp Yuan depreciation could be such a trigger. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

17 Syys 201922min

John Waldron is a busy man. He’s almost a year into his role as Goldman Sachs COO and President, and he’s also a father of six. In this episode, Waldron demystifies his day-to-day and explains why he’s even more focused on executing on the title “COO” than “president.” “My role right now really is to first learn the firm and understand the inner workings of the firm, and so that’s a really operationally intensive job, thus the chief operating officer component,” says Waldron. “The president job comes into play more on an external basis where you’re out with clients, with governments, with regulators and other external constituencies where that title has real resonance.” Waldron also discusses how younger employees can identify and invest in mentors, as well as the importance of recharging out of the office. For Waldron, that means getting home for dinner with his family if he has to head out to a client event later in the evening. “I’ll have a little bit of peanut butter and jelly and then I’ll have a steak tartare later on,” he tells podcast host Jake Siewert.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

13 Syys 201928min

Technology is changing the structure of the financial industry, says Marty Chavez, global co-head of the Goldman Sachs Securities Division. In this episode, he discusses how the industry is reshaping. “If you look inside a financial services firm, you’ll find there has traditionally been a relatively small number of roles that we talk about—so there’d be bankers, salespeople and traders,” Chavez says. “Now, all of those simple, easy categories are going away and they’re going away fast, and it’s becoming much more complicated and much more multidimensional.” This breaking down of clear categories also changes how financial firms compete with each other. “The traditional notions of ‘You’re my competitor’ are giving away to something that looks much more like coopetition—maybe not my favorite word, but you compete in some areas and you cooperate in some other areas; and some other areas you might be a client, or they might be a client,” Chavez says.         Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

3 Syys 201950min

For this special episode of Exchanges, we’re running our newest podcast, Top of Mind at Goldman Sachs. Hosted by Allison Nathan, a senior strategist in Goldman Sachs Research, Top of Mind examines the macroeconomic issues that are shaping the global economy. In each episode, Allison interviews Goldman Sachs experts—as well as influential policymakers, academics, and investors—on market-moving topics. The series’ latest installment, Dissecting the Market Disconnect, takes a close look at the divergence between falling bond yields and rising equity prices. Bridgewater Associates’ Ray Dalio and Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius join Allison to dive into this dynamic and understand how concerned investors should really be about economic growth.        Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

22 Elo 201922min

The US Federal Reserve’s sharp pivot toward easing amid substantial White House pressure has raised concerns about central bank independence, as have developments in other advanced and emerging market economies alike. How worried we should be about this threat—and its implications for policy, the economy, and markets—is Top of Mind. In this episode, Goldman Sachs Research’s Allison Nathan interviews former central bankers Donald Kohn and Sir Paul Tucker who explain why central bank independence is critical to maintaining price and financial stability—even today when too little, rather than too much, inflation is the main problem. But while Kohn is concerned that Trump’s overt pressure could undermine Fed credibility, Tucker worries more that over-reliance on central banks since the GFC has left them vulnerable to politicization. Nathan also speaks with the firm’s chief economist Jan Hatzius who does not believe the Fed has responded directly to pressure from the White House, but does think that political pressure could already be influencing Fed policy through indirect channels such as bond market pricing. That said, Hatzius argues this in itself shouldn’t inflict too much harm on the economy unless inflationary pressures rise materially. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

13 Elo 201924min

The next 10 years of mobility will bring more change in the way that people and products move than any decade since the invention of the automobile, Goldman Sachs Research’s Heath Terry explains in this episode. Emerging technologies and business models like ride-hailing and sharing, autonomous driving and delivery, micro-mobility and even eVTOL (flying cars, finally) stand to disrupt profit pools that we estimate exceed $700 billion, and venture-backed startups and incumbents will attempt to address over $7 trillion in spending. Given the size of the opportunity, it should come as no surprise that access to capital has created a hyper-competitive environment marked by massive operating losses driven by marketing, subsidies, incentives, and capital investment. As this environment matures and rationalizes, Goldman Sachs Research expects consolidation that will lead to profitability, the establishment of category leaders, and significant opportunities for investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

25 Heinä 201923min

With the US expansion now the longest on record and no shortage of risks on the horizon, growth uncertainty is Top of Mind. This uncertainty has been at the heart of the dovish pivot from central banks this year, which has generally helped push bond yields lower in anticipation of Fed rate cuts ahead, but equity prices higher. So just how concerned about growth should we really be? In this episode of the Top of Mind at Goldman Sachs podcast, Goldman Sachs Research’s Allison Nathan asks Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio, Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius and others to weigh in. Dalio argues that recent price action makes sense given the Fed’s easier stance, but worries we’re pushing the limits of monetary easing, which—among other political and geopolitical factors—will ultimately bring about a negative shift in growth and markets. But Jan Hatzius argues that markets are perhaps too concerned about growth and not concerned enough about the direction of Fed policy, as the costs of easing now potentially outweigh the benefits. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

16 Heinä 201921min

In this episode, Jennifer Davis, head of retail investment banking for Goldman Sachs, explains how retailers are expanding their growth strategies against a backdrop of continued e-commerce growth and shifting demographics. While Davis acknowledges that growth strategies are “very specific to a retailer or brand,” she outlines three key areas of focus for her clients: customer demographic growth, channel growth (including the rise of digitally native brands), and geographic growth.   Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

3 Heinä 201923min