Geographic Spotlight: British Columbia

Wednesday, July 22, 2026. BRITISH COLUMBIA ENERGY MARKET OVERVIEW. BC is Canada's leading natural gas producer and minor crude oil producer; emerging as major LNG exporter. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION: BC natural gas 2025 7.4 Bcf/d (up 4.8% YoY; largest provincial increase). BC's share Canadian gas production ~39-40% (2025). BC's share growth from ~13% in 2000 to 40% in 2025 (more than doubled since 2010). National marketable gas ~18.8 Bcf/d (2026). MONTNEY FORMATION: Accounts for ~87% of producing wells and 86.9% of 2021 production; ~87% of BC gas. STATISTICS CANADA (MARCH 2026): Marketable natural gas production rose 5.6% YoY nationally to 755.1M gigajoules; BC contributed largest increase (+13.8% YoY). BC GAS PRODUCTION GROWTH: Rose 28% in five years to ~2021; 136% since 2005. Recent growth >2.5 Bcf/d since 2018. CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION: BC crude oil minimal (~0.1-0.3M bbl/d range). National crude oil edged up 0.2% nationally (Statistics Canada March 2026). LNG EXPORTS: LNG Canada Phase 1 (Kitimat) 14 MTPA facility; first export cargo loaded Jun 30, 2025; Train 2 entered production Nov 2025; ramping toward full Phase 1 capacity (1.84 Bcf/d) into 2026. LNG CANADA PHASE 2: Joint venture participants approved funding in 2026 for potential FID by year-end; project would double capacity to 28 MTPA; designated "project of national interest". FEDERAL-PROVINCIAL ACCELERATION AGREEMENT (JUL 2026): Canada and BC signed Cooperative Prosperity Agreement to fast-track permitting/financing/construction of four priority LNG projects: LNG Canada Phase 2, Ksi Lisims LNG, Cedar LNG, Woodfibre LNG. WOODFIBRE LNG: Near Squamish; 2.1 MTPA project under construction; expected online 2027. CEDAR LNG: Kitimat; floating LNG facility (3 MTPA); positive FID 2024; early construction underway; targeted in-service late 2028. KSI LISIMS LNG: Proposed 1.6-1.8 Bcf/d project; FID expected early 2026; designated "project of national interest". TILBURY LNG: FortisBC facility exports small volumes; Phase 2 expansion (up to 2.5 MTPA) in planning/approvals; potential completion ~2028. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: LNG exports (led by LNG Canada) projected to boost BC GDP by ~$8B/year; natural gas royalties rising to $1.2B in 2026-27. GLOBAL LNG SUPPLY 2026: Forecast to rise ~7% (~40 bcm) with contributions from Canada (BC projects), U.S., Qatar; expected to ease market tightness/support Asian demand growth. MARKET POSITIONING: BC LNG targets Asian markets with West Coast delivery advantage; high costs (feed gas + pipeline tolls) make projects sensitive to prices below ~$7-9/MMBtu; oversupply risks noted for late 2020s. THE READ: Natural gas 7.4 Bcf/d, up 4.8% YoY, 40% of Canadian production, Montney driving growth, crude oil minimal. LNG exports LNG Canada Phase 1 ramping, Phase 2 FID targeted year-end, four priority projects accelerated via federal-provincial agreement, Woodfibre 2027, Cedar 2028, Ksi Lisims FID early 2026. Economic impact $8B/year GDP boost, $1.2B natural gas royalties 2026-27. BRITISH COLUMBIA ENERGY THESIS: Natural gas production leading Canadian growth, Montney Formation driving output, LNG Canada Phase 1 operational, Phase 2 expansion approved, four priority LNG projects accelerated, Asian market focus, high cost sensitivity, long-term oversupply risks, near-term growth trajectory strong. Trade the data, not the headlines.