Mark Kruger on China’s Macro Outlook

In this episode of The Negotiation, host Todd Embley is joined by Mark Kruger, a Senior Fellow at the Yicai Research Institute, Centre for International Governance Innovation, and the University of Alberta’s China Institute. Formerly with the Bank of Canada for three decades, Mark now resides in Shanghai and writes regularly for Yicai Global, where he offers clear, data-driven analysis on China’s economy. In today’s episode, Todd and Mark dig into China’s macroeconomic outlook in the wake of proposed new tariffs from Donald Trump and why Mark believes the country’s 5% growth target remains achievable despite external pressure.

The conversation explores Mark’s recent columns, including “Is China’s 5 Percent GDP Growth Credible?” He shares insights into the resilience of the Chinese economy, fiscal and monetary policy expectations, consumer confidence trends, and the ongoing property sector adjustment. Mark also weighs in on how Canada should navigate its own economic relationship with China during a time of rising global protectionism.

Stay tuned for a sharp, timely conversation with one of the most thoughtful observers of China’s economic evolution.

Discussion Points:

• Why Trump’s tariffs may not derail China’s 5% GDP growth target
• Signs of strength in China’s Q1 economic data
• The resilience of Chinese consumer confidence
• How China’s export profile is becoming more diversified
• Potential fiscal and monetary responses from Beijing to rising trade tensions
• The role of infrastructure investment and new manufacturing sectors in bolstering growth
• The status and long-term management of China’s property sector
• Canada’s strategic positioning in the context of US-China trade tensions
• Key risks and tailwinds shaping China’s medium-term economic outlook
• What foreign businesses should keep in mind when interpreting China’s economic trajectory