Café Bitcoin | Day 6 of 50: Lawrence Lepard on the Big Print, the AI Credit Crack, and The Math Ain't Mathing

Lawrence Lepard on bear market psychology. Everyone is short-term, negative, and attacking each other over BIP110 and Saylor. His read: we are winning, this is the moment to get friends buying, and he expects much higher highs within 18 to 24 months.
The big print thesis. Lepard is watching the yen carry trade, a near-vertical Japanese 10-year, and the US 10-year at 4.70 with 5% as the Fed's red line. Druckenmiller-adjacent circles think Japan breaks first.
"The math ain't mathing." A roughly $2T deficit while total debt grew $3.5T in twelve months. Hank Paulson resurfacing after fifteen years to suggest a Fed break-the-glass program reads to Lepard as a trial balloon for the big print.
Reading Kevin Warsh. Lepard's take: Warsh is abandoning the Phillips curve for a supply-side inflation story, talks like a balance-sheet hawk for the bond market's benefit, and will likely cut in September. Fed governor hawkishness is kabuki.
The AI credit crack. Cory: Nvidia credit default swaps blew out overnight, Korea down 11% and chipmakers 13%. Oracle sits one notch above junk at 6x leverage. Lepard adds $3.8T trapped in private equity and private credit, all mismarked.
Socialism for the rich. Frank Corva, reporting from New York, argues the US is not capitalist: Altman and Amodei asking Washington for stakes is the state picking winners. Cory's framing, via Saifedean, is that taking from everyone to give to your friends is the harder sell.
US versus China capitalism. Cory: America anoints monopolies and builds regulatory moats, while the CCP directs investment from the top then permits cutthroat competition. It happened in EVs and it is happening in AI. Open-weight Chinese models are the destabilizer.
A live bear debate. Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research brought three objections: private money has failed before, Bitcoin is not a real asset, and fixed supply breaks an economy. Cory and Lepard countered that a protocol with no issuer is not private money.
First duress-code prosecution. Samuel Tunick, an American citizen, was pulled into secondary inspection at Atlanta, pressured for his phone passcode, and entered a GrapheneOS duress code that wiped it. He is now charged federally with destroying property to prevent seizure.
Adoption from the actual front lines. Corva on the Kibera slum's Afribit circular economy, single mothers saving for college, India cracking down on BitChat alongside Signal and Telegram, and Indonesia approving Fedi ecash. His hill to die on: Bitcoin is money.

Tämä jakso on lisätty Podme-palveluun avoimen RSS-syötteen kautta eikä se ole Podmen omaa tuotantoa. Siksi jakso saattaa sisältää mainontaa.

Jaksot(655)

Café Bitcoin | Day 7 of 50: Daniel Batten on Bitcoin and Energy, Britain's Curtailment Bill, and Wealth Is Energy

Cory was out for a family wedding, so Brady and Philip hosted from his handle. Also new: a weekly recap song in a different genre each week, covering everything from the previous weeks of the show. D...

29 Heinä 1h 23min

Café Bitcoin | Day 5 of 50: The Digital ID Retreat, the Race to Avoid the War, and Do the Work

Day 5 of 50 Days for Freedom, hosted from @Swan after Cory's handle hit tech trouble. Swan's buy fee sits at 50 basis points through Labor Day. Framing doc: swan.com/battle. Cory on disagreeing well....

28 Heinä 1h 20min

Café Bitcoin | Day 4 of 50: Bitcoin Season Goes to the NBA, the BitChat Ban, and Don't Trust, Verify

The main event: Mike Nicoll, director of Bitcoin Season, on going from USC Film School and Netflix's At All Costs to documenting the first Bitcoin-only deals with an NBA franchise and Klutch Sports — ...

27 Heinä 1h 17min

Café Bitcoin | Day 3 of 50: The Battle of the Bears Begins, The Consortium, and Independence Must Be Won

Chapters: 00:00 — Wicked: from trader to Bitcoin-only, sats per dollar, save don't trade 04:30 — Satoshi's Bride: a Bitcoin tip at a fine-dining shift 11:00 — Scott: the echo-chamber reality check...

27 Heinä 1h 12min

Café Bitcoin is BACK | Day 2 of 50: FATF Surveillance Creep, Signal vs. Noise, and The Work That Wins

Chapters 00:00 — Day 1 recap: 2,800+ listens, 465 peak concurrent, why this show exists 01:15 — Susie Violet Ward on FATF's fraud roadmap: the Travel Rule comes for Bitcoin 06:15 — "If you're not ...

23 Heinä 1h 15min

Café Bitcoin is Back | 1 of 50

Cafe Bitcoin returns for 50 Days for Bitcoin — Day 1 of 50. Cory Klippsten reboots the daily Cafe Bitcoin show to kick off Swan's 50 Days for Bitcoin campaign: 50 basis point buy fees for 50 days (Jul...

21 Heinä 1h 16min

Gigachad's $42B - $MSTR flips $COIN - Florida loves the corn

In this episode of Swan Signal Live, hosts Brady Swenson and John Harr discuss various Bitcoin-related topics with guests Steven Lubka and Isaiah Douglas from Swan Bitcoin. The crew talks MicroStrateg...

1 Marras 20241h 4min